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2021 Ligue 1 Winner Odds: PSG the betting favorite

Kylian Mbappe (right) leads his Paris Saint-Germain squad as the favorites in the French Ligue 1 odds.

France’s most prestigious local league, the Ligue 1, is approaching its conclusion. Even though there are just seven games to go for each team, there are plenty of choices to feel confident about. We take a look at some of those betting markets and strategies for you to consider from the French league.

Lille is leading by three points, yet PSG is a definite favorite to win at Bovada. PSG (-140) is followed by Lille (+200), Lyon (+900) and Monaco (+1200).

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For more information on how to wager on soccer, check out our How to Bet on Soccer page. Want more news and analysis on the French league? Head to our dedicated Ligue 1 page.

Ligue 1 Championship Odds

Odds To Win The 2020-21 Ligue 1 Title
Paris Saint-Germain-140
RC Lens+100000
Olympique Marseille+250000

Odds as of April 6 at Bovada

Current Ligue 1 Standings

Before we move into the betting specifics, let’s take a look at how the teams are positioned after 31 games across the board.

Lille is currently leading the Ligue 1 with 66 points. PSG is second with 63 points, while Monaco (61) and Lyon (60) are third and fourth respectively.

At the bottom of the table, Dijon is all but relegated, having managed just 15 points after 31 games. Nantes (28 points) and Nimes (29 points) are in the relegation zone, currently languishing at 19th and 18th respectively.

Who Are the Favorites to Win the Ligue 1 season?

PSG (-140) is a heavy favorite to win the Ligue 1 season despite trailing league-leading Lille by three points. There are several factors to look at before you make your decision at this stage of the season.

PSG’s offensive spirit has not dwindled. Kylian Mbappe is the league’s leading scorer, with 20 goals in 26 games. He is five goals ahead of the next player on that list, Monaco’s Wissam Ben Yedder. That’s how dominant he has been right through this season despite facing injury concerns toward the end of last year. PSG has also been aided by Moise Kean’s rather explosive return to form.

Kean arrived at PSG on loan from Everton, where he scored just two goals in his last 33 appearances across all competitions. He has now scored 11 goals in 21 appearances in Ligue 1 this season. Angel Di Maria has registered eight assists this year, tied for third in the league.

PSG has also managed 20 wins in 31 games, the most in the league. The general consensus is that making up three points on Lille with the level of depth and skill on that roster is not going to be too hard. I tend to agree with that consensus. PSG would have been even harder to ignore had it not been involved in the quarterfinals of the Champions League.

However, considering an impending defeat over two legs (based on the probability of Bayern Munich winning the tie), PSG is likely to become an even stronger favorite to win this league. At this point, PSG’s implied probability to win is 73 percent, according to our sports betting calculator.

Left-field Picks to Win Ligue 1?

Lille (+200) has suffered just three defeats this season, the fewest in the league. Its players have also aggregated just 53 yellow cards in 31 games, third-fewest in the French league. Lille has conceded just 19 goals, also the fewest in Ligue 1. That’s not an irrelevant stat because it is a fair indicator of the discipline of the team.

No player from Lille is in the top nine in the goal-scoring charts this season. Jonathan Davis is leading in goals scored with 10. Jonathan Bamba, however, is leading Ligue 1 in assists with nine, tied with Memphis Depay. Combined with Lille’s goal difference of 32, some patterns start to form. For some context, PSG’s goal difference is 45.

Lille is a team that prefers a more methodical approach in the middle and final third, with an intense focus on defensive effectiveness. A case in point was Lille’s 1-0 win against PSG on the road Saturday. Lille’s implied probability to win is 20 percent currently.

Can Lyon Mount a Challenge?

Lyon (+900) has lost plenty of ground in 2021. In the last five games, Lyon has managed just six points, which has resulted in a drop to fourth in the league. However, there are several avenues for offensive production for Lyon. Three players have scored 10 or more goals this season, led by Memphis Depay (14 goals).

Karl Toko Ekambi and Tino Kadewere have chipped in with a combined 22 goals. For them to stake a claim, though, there needs to be a drastic dip in form for Lille or PSG, especially because there are only seven games to go. I can’t see that happening at this pivotal point of the season.

Here’s my strategy for this market.

Apart from Monaco (+1200), none of the other left-field options on Bovada are compelling despite their astronomical odds. I’d back PSG to win the league but Lille is capable and competent enough to protect a handy three-point lead, particularly if PSG is complacent about its chances.

Hence, I’d be using over 75 percent of my bankroll on this market for PSG, and the remainder on Lille as a hedge. In mathematical terms, let’s say you have 50 units of your currency to invest on this market. Investing 45 of those 50 units on PSG would give you a profit of over 16 units.

A winning bet of the remaining five units will cut your loss by half if Lille manages to pull off the improbable. This isn’t a high-reward tactic but it guarantees you a profit if the favored team wins and insures your investment to the tune of 50 percent in case PSG doesn’t.

Who Will Finish in the Top Three?

Based on your choice of sportsbook, you might even have outright odds for teams to finish in the top four, as is available on Bet365. Lille and PSG are simple odds-on favorites to make the top three. The other choice will be between Monaco (-125) and Lyon (-250). Lyon’s implied probability to finish third or higher is over 70 percent. It’s hard to argue against its superior squad of players that have competed in the lights and pressure of European competitions on an annual basis.

Also, just one point separates both these teams. Monaco has won two more games but has also lost three more. Another important factor could be goal difference if both of them finish with the same number of points, which is not implausible. Lyon has the edge in that battle as well with a goal difference of 29 compared to Monaco’s 26.

The impact of the coronavirus on soccer in France has been severe. A couple of rounds of matches could make a significant difference to these markets. As a result, we’ll be back soon to update these pages and help you settle on a winner.