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Lionel Messi will be a major factor for Argentina in World Cup Group C Odds

When you look at the World Cup Group C odds, there’s an obvious favorite. Argentina is the clear class of the group, but there’s enough quality to question which two teams will qualify out of the group.

Sportsbook BetOnline Sportsbook has Argentina’s World Cup Group C odds at -250. Mexico and Poland have much longer odds to win the group but are basically neck and neck at +450 and +475, respectively.

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We are here to break down everything World Cup-related to get you ready for the tournament, and that includes breaking down the odds for every group and every game. You can also check out who we think you should bet on to win the World Cup and the Golden Boot.

World Cup Group C Odds: To Win Outright

odds to win group C outright
CountryOdds
Argentina-250
Mexico+450
Poland+475
Saudi Arabia+2800

Odds as of July 19 at BetOnline Sportsbook

World Cup Group C Odds: Odds To Advance From Group Stage

odds to advance from group stage
CountryOdds
Argentina-1250
Mexico-125
Poland-115
Saudi Arabia+650

Odds as of July 19 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Why Is Argentina (-250) Favored To Win Group C?

Argentina’s road to Qatar certainly suggests they should be able to qualify out of this group. They’re currently second in the CONMEBOL with 39 points thanks to an 11-6-0 record. They still have one game left on their CONMEBOL schedule, and it’s against rival Brazil on September 22.

We also can’t forget that La Albiceleste are currently on a 33-game unbeaten run, a streak that’s the best in national team history.

Outside of their current run of form, they have that Lionel Messi guy on the squad. Arguably the best player of the modern era, Messi has six goals and five assists in 19 World Cup games and seven goals in 15 CONMEBOL qualifying matches.

Keep an eye on Messi to factor in the Golden Boot race. He currently holds the fifth-best 2022 World Cup Golden Boot odds at +1200. While he has never won the Golden Boot and is scoring at the same rate through CONMEBOL qualifiers as in 2018, the Argentinians were totally reliant on Messi in 2018, with no other player registering more than two goals.

This time around, teammate Lautaro Martinez has seven goals through the qualifiers. Having another productive conduit for goals might open up Messi a little more – exactly what a legendary player like the 34-year-old needs to take over.

There are questions about how far Argentina can go, but they should come out of the group stage. We’d absolutely back Argentina at -250 to win the group, something they’ve done in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Find the best odds for an Argentina bet over at BetOnline:

Group C Odds: Mexico (+450)

Rarely has Mexico bowed out at the group stage, qualifying for the Round of 16 since 1994. But they’ve never gone past the Round of 16 since ‘94 either. You have to go back to 1986 to find the last time Mexico made it past the Round of 16.

El Tri ended the CONCACAF qualification round tied at the top of the table with Canada but ended up below the Canadians due to an inferior goal differential, which speaks to a big issue for Mexico going into the tournament: goal scoring.

In their last eight World Cup qualifying matches, Mexico has only managed to score more than a single goal twice. That lack of finishing was clearly to blame on a few occasions during qualifications.

In a 1-1 draw with Canada on October 7, Mexico held a shot advantage of 11-8 and a possession advantage of 54%-46%. Then there was a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica on January 30, when Mexico dominated the match with a +19 shot differential and held 69 percent of the possession.

Backing Mexico to win the group seems like a bad idea. Qualifying out of the group also seems a bit dicey considering that goal-scoring issue, not to mention the questions surrounding Gerardo Martino’s passive tactics that invite pressure rather than relying on Mexico’s traditional pressing style of play.

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Group C Odds: Poland (+475)

The Polish national team doesn’t have the same issue as Mexico. With Robert Lewandowski, Adam Buksa and Karol Swiderski, they had three of the five top scorers from UEFA Group I. Their 32 goals through qualification are the fourth most in the entire European region after England (39), Germany (36) and the Netherlands (33).

In 10 Group I matches, Poland held a 6-2-2 record with a healthy +19 goal differential. They had to go through the playoffs to qualify for the World Cup, but they earned their spot by defeating Sweden 2-0.

Through their qualifying campaign, Poland held a 61.1 percent possession rate, the 11th best in the European region, just behind Denmark’s 62.1 percent and ahead of France’s 60.1 percent. This is a good squad whose only knock when handing out the Group C odds is simply due to the fact that they were a Pot 3 team.

It’s unlikely that Poland wins the group, but qualifying over Mexico? Absolutely. Backing Poland to qualify at -115 is a solid bet, meaning a $10 bet would earn a takeaway of $18.70.

Group C Odds: Saudi Arabia (+2500)

Saudi Arabia confirmed their spot in the World Cup after winning a stacked Group B that featured Japan and Australia. The Al-Suqour wrapped up the group with a 7-2-1 record. The only loss came at the hands of Japan.

Their record at the World Cup isn’t great, going 3-2-11 with a -28 goal differential across five appearances. They’ve left the group stage once, back in 1994.

Look, there’s a good reason why Saudi Arabia’s odds are much longer than anyone else in the group. While they have a team of strong players like Al Hilal forward Salem Al-Dawsari, there isn’t a game-breaker in there.

Manager Hervé Renard is a good tactician, specifically in international tournaments with two Africa Cup of Nations winner’s medals around his neck.

Winning the group seems impossible while qualifying seems improbable for Saudi Arabia.