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Covington vs Woodley: Fight Night Odds & Expert Picks

A contentious and highly anticipated welterweight fight will be the main event for this week’s UFC Fight Night card when former interim champion Colby Covington and former champion Tyron Woodley finally settle their differences.

This will be the final card at the UFC Apex Performance Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, September 19, before the promotion returns to Yas Island, aka Fight Island. We have a full preview and the betting odds for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley.

Covington is returning to the Octagon for the first time since his fifth-round knockout loss to Kamaru Usman last December. With a win over Woodley, “Chaos” may hop into another title fight soon.

Meanwhile, Woodley is walking to the cage on a two-fight losing streak for the first time in his career. The former champ hasn’t scored a victory in over two years but he looks to shut up his former training partner and return to the championship conversation.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley betting odds and has listed Covington as the sizable -315 favorite, with Woodley returning as a +245 underdog. This means you would have to wager $315 to profit $100 with a Covington win, while a $100 bet on Woodley would profit you $245. You can find out all of your potential winnings by using our sports betting calculator.

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UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley Betting Odds

  • Welterweight – Colby Covington (-315) vs Tyron Woodley (+245)
  • Welterweight – Donald Cerrone (+110) vs Niko Price (-140)
  • Middleweight – Khamzat Chimaev (-450) vs Gerald Meerschaert (+325)
  • Light Heavyweight – Johnny Walker (-140) vs Ryan Spann (+110)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Mackenzie Dern (-175) vs Randa Markos (+145)
  • Middleweight – Kevin Holland (-275) vs Darren Stewart (+215)
  • Prelims
  • Flyweight – Jordan Espinosa (-120) vs David Dvorak (-110)
  • Featherweight – Mirsad Bektic (-350) vs Damon Jackson (+265)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Mayra Bueno Silva (-270) vs Mara Romero Borella (+210)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Jessica-Rose Clark (-220) vs Sarah Alpar (+175)
  • Bantamweight – Journey Newson (-135) vs Randy Costa (+105)
  • Bantamweight – Andre Ewell (-225) vs Irwin Rivera (+175)
  • Featherweight – Darrick Minner (+250) vs T.J. Laramie (-325)
  • Bantamweight – Tyson Nam (-205) vs Jerome Rivera (+165)

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC betting guide to get you in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.

UFC Vegas 11 Broadcast Information

  • Date/Time: September 19, 5 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex Performance Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Colby Covington-315
Tyron Woodley+245

Covington (-315) is looking to get back in the win column after having his seven-fight winning streak snapped his last time out and hopefully, with a victory, get another crack at the champion, Kamaru Usman. Meanwhile, after losing his title to Usman in March 2019, Woodley (+245) dropped his most recent fight as well to Gilbert Burns and is now on his first career losing streak.


Covington: Need to Knows
  • The self-proclaimed “People’s Champ” may annoy many people with his over-the-top persona, but when he’s in the Octagon he’s no joke.
  • Covington pushes a pace that makes his opponents wilt. He mixes up his striking with plenty of takedowns, averaging 4.17 significant strikes per minute and 4.91 takedowns per 15 minutes.
  • Chaos does a good job on the feet. He throws straight punches that don’t exactly have a ton of power, but he is constantly touching you with volume strikes while mixing in takedown attempts at a grueling pace. At times, he is a little slow to react to straight punches, but he showed his durability in the Usman war.
  • Covington’s last three fights were Rafael dos Anjos (win – unanimous decision), Robbie Lawler (win – unanimous decision) and Kamaru Usman (loss – knockout).


Woodley: Need to Knows
  • A veteran of the cage since making his UFC debut in 2013, Woodley climbed to the top and is clinging on to whatever he has left.
  • “The Chosen One” has had a hard time keeping up with the pace in his last two fights as his approach through his career has been to use his tremendous takedown defense, stuffing 90 percent of attempts, to keep the fight standing and land his powerful right hand.
  • The book may be out on how to beat him, though, because if you crowd him, he doesn’t have the space to throw that devastating right hand. Unfortunately, Woodley continues to load up on that one strike, which his opponents are waiting for and either ducking under for a takedown attempt or dodging and throwing a powerful counter.
  • He averages just 2.38 significant strikes per minute and has landed 50 or more significant strikes in just five of his 14 UFC bouts.
  • Woodley’s last three fights were Darren Till (win – submission), Kamaru Usman (loss – unanimous decision) and Gilbert Burns (loss – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Colby Covington (-315) via decision

Donald Cerrone vs Niko Price Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Donald Cerrone+110
Niko Price-140

It has been a rough go for fan favorite Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (+110) recently as he enters this fight on a four-fight losing slide to the who’s who of the UFC. Looking to pile another loss on Cowboy’s record is Niko “The Hybrid” Price (-140), who is searching for his first win of 2020 after taking a knockout loss to Vicente Luque in May.


Cerrone: Need to Knows
  • With this walk, Cerrone will once again tie Jim Miller for the most UFC fights (36) and in doing so will look to extend his record for most UFC wins (23), finishes (16, tied with Charles Oliveira) and knockdowns (20).
  • Cowboy is a well-rounded fighter with 10 knockout and 17 submission victories on his record, while he’s only been submitted once, though he has been knocked out seven times.
  • His preference to fight anyone, anywhere and at any time is apparent in the way he fights as he loves a high-level kickboxing match with his terrific kicks and accurate straight punches, though he’s prone to walking into shots through his guard.
  • If he feels too much pressure on the feet, he will take the fight to the floor and work toward a submission.
  • Cerrone’s last three fights were Justin Gaethje (loss – knockout), Conor McGregor (loss – knockout) and Anthony Pettis (loss – unanimous decision).


Price: Need to Knows
  • Violence personified is what you’re going to get with Price as he’s rarely in a boring fight, which is evident in his record. Just one of his 19 pro fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards and each of his last six fights have ended in a knockout – three he won, three he lost.
  • Price loves getting into brawls, though he has been outstruck in seven of his 11 UFC bouts. He averages 4.32 significant strikes but absorbs 5.46.
  • He has a bad tendency to leave his strikes long, meaning after he throws, he doesn’t return the limb quickly to the body. That’s more of an issue with punches as he’s left open for powerful counters.
  • Additionally, when his opponents throw punches, his arms typically go out to the side, leaving him open for punches down the middle.
  • Price’s last three fights were Geoff Neal (loss – knockout), James Vick (win – knockout) and Vicente Luque (loss – knockout).

Prediction: Donald Cerrone (+110) via submission

Khamzat Chimaev vs Gerald Meerschaert Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Khamzat Chimaev-450
Gerald Meerschaert+325

The biggest star to come out of Fight Island in July was not new champions Petr Yan or Deiveson Figueiredo, but rather Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev (-450), who posted dominant wins twice in 10 days in two different weight classes. Looking to derail the hype train is Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (+325), who will be making his 12th walk to the Octagon.


Chimaev: Need to Knows
  • Chimaev made his UFC debut on July 15 with a perfect 6-0 record, all by finishes. By July 25, he was 8-0 with eight finishes (five by knockout and three by submission).
  • In the two UFC wins for Borz, he landed a total of 192 strikes while only absorbing two. Where those two strikes that landed came from, I’m not sure, but it was total domination in both fights.
  • In both bouts, he picked up his opponents, slammed them and started to batter them with strikes, trying to finish the fight or look for a submission. He kept a ridiculous pace and showed no signs of tiring.
  • Chimaev’s last three fights were Mzwandile Hlongwa (win – submission), John Phillips (win – submission) and Rhys McKee (win – knockout).


Meerschaert: Need to Knows
  • While Chimaev still lacks experience, this will be Meerschaert’s 45th pro fight. Of those bouts, only five have gone to the judges’ scorecards, with 31 ending in submission, 23 of which saw his arm being raised.
  • GM3’s striking continues to improve, though they remain long, strong kicks and straight punches. He does this to keep his opponents at bay with his 77-inch reach because he struggles within boxing range.
  • It’s evident by his submission wins that he’s OK with a fight going to the ground. However, at times he just accepts the position and lets his opponent work, which has led to losses.
  • Meerschaert’s last three fights were Eryk Anders (loss – split decision), Deron Winn (win – submission) and Ian Heinisch (loss – knockout).

Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev (-450) via submission

Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Johnny Walker-140
Ryan Spann+110

After suffering a quick, 15-second knockout loss to Karl Roberson in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2017, Ryan “Superman” Spann (+110) has found another gear, rattling off eight straight wins, including six finishes. Meanwhile, it wasn’t long ago that people were suggesting Johnny Walker (-140) had a chance to dethrone Jon Jones, but back-to-back losses have halted that momentum.


Walker: Need to Knows
  • Walker burst onto the UFC scene after earning a contract from DWTNCS in Brazil in 2018, scoring three straight first-round knockouts in a variety of ways.
  • He is a creative striker and a big light heavyweight, standing six-foot-six with an 82-inch reach. His kicks are quick and powerful and he mixes them from low to high effectively.
  • Despite his large frame, he is quite nimble, throwing wild spinning and flying attacks with tremendous power, evident in his record with 14 of his 17 pro wins coming by knockout.
  • Walker’s last three fights were Misha Cirkunov (win – knockout), Corey Anderson (loss – knockout), and Nikita Krylov (loss – unanimous decision).


Spann: Need to Knows
  • While Walker possesses many different knockout techniques for his method of victory, it is Spann’s strong squeeze that has had his hand raised in victory. Of his 18 pro wins, 11 have come by submission, though he’s posted three of his four pro knockouts during his current winning streak.
  • Superman is also a big light heavyweight at six-foot-five with a 79-inch reach. On the feet, he doesn’t have a ton of movement, moving forward a little bit like a zombie. He rarely defends kicks or punches and simply looks to counter with one power punch at a time.
  • If he’s able to press his opponent against the cage, he is very strong and can ragdoll them to the floor and work toward a submission.
  • Spann’s last three fights were Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (win – knockout), Devin Clark (win – submission) and Sam Alvey (win – split decision).

Prediction: Johnny Walker (-140) via knockout

Mackenzie Dern vs Randa Markos Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Mackenzie Dern-175
Randa Markos+145

Mackenzie Dern (-175) will look to put together back-to-back wins after suffering her first pro loss in October of last year. As for Randa “Quiet Storm” Markos (+145), she’s still looking to find her footing in MMA, having not had a streak (winning or losing) of more than one since she won three straight to begin her career.


Dern: Need to Knows
  • A tough competitor every time she steps in the cage, she holds an 8-1 record with her lone loss coming by decision. Five of her eight pro wins have been submissions.
  • On the feet, her striking continues to improve, though it is still a little rudimentary with a simple 1-2 over and over again. Her hands have shown improvements in speed and power but make no mistake, it is in the ground game that she excels.
  • Dern struggles to get fighters to the floor, landing just one takedown on 13 attempts in her four-fight UFC career, but on the canvas, she has great submission skills as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
  • Dern’s last three fights were Amanda Bobby Brundage (win – submission), Amanda Ribas (loss – unanimous decision) and Hannah Cifers (win – submission).


Markos: Need to Knows
  • Markos has been a decision queen throughout her pro career with 14 of her 19 fights going to the judges’ scorecards, six of which went in her favor. Though she has a win over former champion Carla Esparza and rising contender Angela Hill, you never know which Markos will show up.
  • She is primarily a wrestler, averaging 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes while stuffing 58 percent of her opponents’ shots. However, we have seen her steadily improve on the feet, especially with her kicks. She never backs down from a striking exchange, though her hand speed is nothing to write home about.
  • Markos’ last three fights were Claudia Gadelha (loss – unanimous decision), Ashley Yoder (win – split decision) and Amanda Ribas (loss – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Randa Markos (+145) via decision

Kevin Holland vs Darren Stewart Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Kevin Holland-275
Darren Stewart+215

Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-275) is coming off back-to-back knockout wins and has won five of his last six, with only a submission loss to Brendan Allen breaking his success. As for Darren “The Dentist” Stewart (+215), he’s looking to find some footing after having two two-fight winnings streaks snapped but he is coming off a victory in his last outing.


Holland: Need to Knows
  • A well-rounded fighter, 15 of his 18 pro wins have been finishes, nine by knockout and six by submission.
  • He has looked extremely comfortable in his last two showings in the Octagon, showing off pinpoint accuracy and power that has seen him land 93 significant strikes while only absorbing 40.
  • He is a long middleweight at six-foot-three with an 81-inch reach and uses his long jab and kicks to pick his opponents apart without taking much danger. Additionally, he has great footwork, furthering his elusiveness.
  • Holland’s last three fights were Brendan Allen (loss – submission), Anthony Hernandez (win – knockout) and Joaquin Buckley (win – knockout).


Stewart: Need to Knows
  • Stewart isn’t as well-rounded as Holland, with just one submission win on his record, coming in his last appearance. However, seven of his 12 wins have come by knockout, pointing to the power he possesses in his hands.
  • At times, The Dentist tends to fight off his back foot and is a little hesitant, though in his win over Maki Pitolo in August he was the one pushing the pace.
  • Due to his lack of pressure in the past, he averages just 2.97 significant strikes per minute and he often follows his opponents when circling the cage instead of cutting them off to land his punches.
  • Stewart’s last three fights were Deron Winn (win – split decision), Bartosz Fabinski (loss – unanimous decision) and Maki Pitolo (win – submission).

Prediction: Kevin Holland (-275) via decision

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley Predictions

FighterOdds
Welterweight - Colby Covington-315
Welterweight - Donald Cerrone+110
Middleweight - Khamzat Chimaev-450
Light Heavyweight - Johnny Walker-140
Women’s Strawweight - Randa Markos+145
Middleweight - Kevin Holland-275