Paulo Costa is an underdog vs Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 294

Strickland vs Costa Odds & Picks: A Feisty UFC 302 Co-Main Event

The UFC 302 co-main event is set, with former middleweight Sean Strickland set as a -275 favorite over Paulo Costa, the +225 underdog.

This is Strickland's first fight since losing his middleweight belt at UFC 297. It'll also be his first bout as a clear favorite since he defeated Jack Hermansson in 2022 as a -240 favorite.

The Strickland vs Costa bout on June 1 is scheduled for five rounds.

Strickland vs Costa Odds

UFC 302: Strickland vs Costa Odds
Sean Strickland-275
Paulo Costa+225

Odds as of May 31

Our odds calculator suggests Strickland's -275 status awards him a 68.55% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $145.87. At +225, Costa gets a 35.71% chance and a $100 bet cashes $280. 

How To Watch UFC 302

  • Date/Time: June 1, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Newark, New Jersey
  • Arena: Prudential Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Strickland vs Costa Betting UFC 302 Betting Preview

Let's see how these two jokers can find a win at UFC 302.

How To Bet Sean Strickland

Costa is very difficult to knock out. Israel Adesanya was the only man to do it, crunching the Brazilian with a tight hook and piling on the beating. It's safe to say Strickland doesn't possess Izzy's quickness, but he can win in other ways.

Strickland is one of the most fundamental fighters on the active UFC roster. He maintains good defense, shuffling his feet (rarely ever throwing kicks above the waist), and uses his jab like an iron piston, blasting opponents. It's difficult (but not impossible) to get the 33-year-old out of position, as he's made himself less vulnerable to feints and set-ups after his loss to Alex Pereira in 2022.

Costa struggles against well-composed opponents — take his one-sided unanimous decision loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298 as an example. "The Eraser" thrives in chaos. Strickland neutralizes it.

love a bet on Strickland to win by decision at UFC 302.

How to bet Costa

Big, bad Costa? Well, you better wager on him to win by knockout as a long-shot play. All that Secret Juice gives him the pop he needs to put down a cruiser like Strickland, who's been knocked out twice in his UFC career.

There's usually one or two moments in every Costa fight where the Brazilian wobbles his opponent and then piles on the damage. He had that window against Whittaker after a wicked head kick, but the bell saved the Aussie. 

Betting Costa as a +225 underdog is a fair move. I also respect anybody moving their odds with a bet on Costa inside the distance. I'm also cool with a bet on Costa to win in Rounds 3, 4, or 5. 

Strickland vs Costa Pick

Believe me, I wish Costa could pull this one off. I don't think the Brazilian is disciplined enough to outwit a technical striker like Strickland. He might wobble Strickland or even knock him down, but Sean is far too steady to lose this one. The five-round format also favors Strickland, who's typically a slow starter.

Pick: Strickland by decision (+170); Fight goes the distance (+120)

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