Betting Odds Explained - UFC

In terms of combat sports, the UFC reigns supreme. UFC odds have always enticed bettors to wager on their favorite fighters to try and cash out.

To bet on the UFC, you need a basic understanding of the sport and fighters, and you need to learn how to read the odds. Odds Shark's got you covered like two fighters locked in a clinch.

How To Read UFC Odds

Most sports odds are presented in the same way. The favorite is represented by the minus sign (-), while the underdog is represented by the plus sign (+). You'll also notice that odds are usually based on bettors wagering $100.

When you see +110 or -110, it means that the juice or vig – what the sportsbook collects – is $10. Sportsbooks have to make money in order to be able to operate and the juice is usually in the $5 to $10 range.

For example, you may see odds for a fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry shown like this:

Fighter	Odds
Islam Makhachev	-340
Ian Machado Garry	+270

If you decided to bet the favorite (Makhachev), you would need to lay down $340 to win $100. Conversely, if you bet the underdog (Garry), you would only need to lay down $100 to win $270.

Underdog bets come with more risk, which is why you don't have to put up as much money as you would with a bet on the favorite. Something to note, you don't have to bet $100 on the fight. You can wager whatever you like, depending on the sportsbook.

Understanding how to read UFC odds is crucial when analyzing matchups between elite fighters, such as welterweight champion Islam Makhachev, heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, or new-wave stars like Khamzat Chimaev and Ilia Topuria.

Types Of Bets You Can Make On UFC

When it comes to wagering on this combat sport, you have many options like the moneyline, method of victory, total rounds, and fight props. Each bet type offers unique opportunities to capitalize on your knowledge of fighters' styles, strengths, and tendencies.

To Win Fight (Moneyline)

UFC moneyline betting simply comes down to betting on who you believe is going to win the fight. This is the most straightforward bet in MMA and ideal for bettors who have a strong conviction about the outcome.

For example, if lightweight champion Ilia Topuria is facing a top contender like Arman Tsarukyan, the odds might look like this:

Fighter	Odds
Ilia Topuria	-175
Arman Tsarukyan	+145

When betting on championship fights or main events featuring pound-for-pound talents, understanding the matchup dynamics is essential. Elite wrestlers like Islam Makhachev often carry heavy favorite status due to their dominant grappling, while knockout artists like Alex Pereira can offer value as underdogs if they can keep the fight standing.

Method of Victory

The method of victory bet is a wager you place on how the fight will be won instead of who will win it. This bet type typically offers better odds than a straight moneyline because you're predicting the exact finish.

Method of Victory	Makhachev Odds	Garry Odds
Knockout	+380	+290
Submission	+195	+950
Decision	+220	+650

If you believe Islam Makhachev will secure a submission victory over Ian Machado Garry—leveraging his elite grappling pedigree trained under Khabib Nurmagomedov—betting on Makhachev by submission at +195 could offer significant value. Similarly, if you expect Tom Aspinall to finish his opponent early with his devastating knockout power, betting on Aspinall by KO within the first two rounds provides enhanced odds compared to a straight moneyline bet.

Understanding fighter tendencies is crucial: Khamzat Chimaev is known for dominant wrestling and ground control, while knockout specialists like Alex Pereira typically finish fights on the feet. Factor in each fighter's finishing rate and preferred methods when making method of victory bets.

Round Betting

A total rounds wager is similar to an OVER/UNDER bet you would make on any other sport. Instead of guessing if the points total will be less or more than the amount set by the sportsbook, you would bet on the number of rounds.

Option	Rounds
OVER	2.5 (+135)
UNDER	2.5 (-165)

If you think a heavyweight bout between Tom Aspinall and a top contender will be over in 2.5 rounds or less—considering Aspinall's average fight time is just over 2 minutes—you would bet the UNDER. Conversely, if you expect a championship fight between technical strikers like Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev to go the distance, you would bet the OVER.

Championship fights are scheduled for five rounds, while non-title bouts are three rounds. This distinction is critical when evaluating total rounds bets. Fighters with exceptional cardio like Merab Dvalishvili or those known for cautious, decision-oriented styles are more likely to see fights go the distance.

Fight to Go the Distance

If you believe the fight will be decided by the judges' scorecards, or have a strong feeling one fighter will stop the other in the Octagon, you can simply bet on the fight to go the distance market.

In this UFC betting odds market, you are simply answering the question of will the fight go the distance and betting on either yes or no. For a welterweight championship bout between Islam Makhachev and a challenger like Shavkat Rakhmonov, the "will the fight go the distance" market odds might look like this:

Option	Odds
Yes	+145
No	-180

When heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall fights—with his incredible 2:18 average fight time—betting "No" on the fight going the distance often presents value. Conversely, when technical strikers with elite cardio face each other, such as former bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili in his battles, betting "Yes" can be profitable.

Prop Bets and Specials

UFC prop bets extend beyond basic outcomes, allowing you to wager on specific occurrences within a fight. Popular props include:

• Will the fight end in Round 1?
• Will both fighters be standing at the end of Round 1?
• Total significant strikes landed
• Total takedowns completed

For example, when Khamzat Chimaev fights, betting on "OVER 3.5 takedowns" often carries value given his elite wrestling background. When Alex Pereira is in the octagon, wagering on "Fight ends in Round 1 or 2" reflects his devastating knockout power.

UFC Betting Tactics and Strategy

The straightforward nature of UFC betting leads to strategic handicapping opportunities. Successful UFC bettors are tasked with analyzing and picking:

• Winners based on style matchups and fight dynamics
• How a fight will end based on finishing rates and tendencies
• Which round a fight will end in
• How long a fight will last based on fighter pace and cardio

To make smart bets, you'll need to do your homework. Unlike passive entertainment, UFC betting rewards dedicated research into fighter statistics, training camps, weight cuts, and historical performance data.

Analyzing Fighting Styles and Matchups

The greatest UFC fighters are versatile cage fighters, but every athlete has strengths and weaknesses that show up in their fighting style. Understanding style matchups is perhaps the most critical aspect of UFC betting.

• Powerful Strikers: Fighters like Alex Pereira and Ilia Topuria try to keep the fight standing and win with devastating punches and kicks. They excel against opponents with weak takedown defense.
• Elite Wrestlers/Grapplers: Champions like Islam Makhachev and Khamzat Chimaev look to control the fight on the mat and win by submission or ground-and-pound. They struggle against fighters with excellent takedown defense and scrambling ability.
• Well-Rounded Mixed Martial Artists: Fighters like Alexander Volkanovski and Tom Aspinall can compete effectively in all areas—striking, wrestling, and submissions—making them dangerous against any style.

When Islam Makhachev faces a striker with limited grappling credentials, his wrestling-heavy approach typically makes him a heavy favorite. However, when elite grapplers face fighters with world-class takedown defense like Ian Machado Garry, the odds tighten considerably.

Bettors should take time to learn and understand the different styles presented by each fighter and how they play off each other. While one fighter usually dictates the pace, a vulnerable weakness against the wrong opponent could send a favorite to a bitter loss and pay off handsomely with an underdog wager.

Fighter Momentum and Recent Form

Recent performance matters significantly in MMA. A fighter on a winning streak with impressive finishes often carries dangerous momentum. Consider these factors:

• Winning Streaks: Fighters like Ilia Topuria entering 2026 undefeated (17-0) command respect and often see inflated odds
• Coming Off a Loss: Former champions like Merab Dvalishvili after losing to Petr Yan may offer betting value if the market overreacts
• Activity Level: Fighters who have been active recently typically perform better than those with long layoffs
• Finish Rate: Tom Aspinall's eight first-round finishes demonstrate finishing ability that translates to method of victory and round betting opportunities

Championship Experience and Big Fight Moments

Fighting for a UFC championship carries immense pressure. Veteran champions like Valentina Shevchenko and Alexander Volkanovski who've defended titles multiple times often perform better under pressure than first-time title challengers. This experience gap can create betting value.

When bantamweight champion Petr Yan regained his title from Merab Dvalishvili, his previous championship experience proved valuable in the biggest moment. Similarly, when undefeated prospects face championship-caliber competition for the first time, expect tighter fights than their records might suggest.

Weight Class Considerations

Different weight classes have distinct characteristics that impact betting:

• Heavyweight (265 lbs): Highest knockout rate; fewer decisions; age matters less. Tom Aspinall's explosive power makes early finishes common.
• Light Heavyweight (205 lbs): Balance of power and speed; championship experience crucial
• Middleweight (185 lbs): Technical striking battles; Khamzat Chimaev's wrestling dominance stands out
• Welterweight (170 lbs): Most competitive division; Islam Makhachev's move up showcases elite adaptability
• Lightweight (155 lbs): Deep talent pool; Ilia Topuria's undefeated reign highlights technical mastery
• Featherweight (145 lbs): Speed and cardio emphasized; Alexander Volkanovski's experience at 37 years old is tested by younger challengers
• Bantamweight (135 lbs) and below: Highest pace; decisions more common; scrambling ability crucial

Age and Career Stage

Fighter age impacts performance differently across weight classes. At 37, featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski faces questions about decline, while heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, at 31, is entering his athletic prime. When evaluating betting value, consider where fighters are in their careers and whether they're ascending, peaking, or declining.

Key Factors for UFC Betting Success

Training Camps and Preparation

Quality training camps significantly impact fight performance. Fighters training at elite gyms like American Kickboxing Academy (Islam Makhachev), City Kickboxing (Alexander Volkanovski), or American Top Team typically show superior preparation. Changes in training camps or coaching staffs can signal potential performance shifts worth monitoring.

Weight Cuts and Weigh-In Analysis

Difficult weight cuts compromise performance. Fighters who look drained at weigh-ins often struggle with cardio and power in the octagon. Monitor weigh-in footage for signs of hard cuts—sunken eyes, poor skin quality, or difficulty standing. Fighters moving up in weight class often perform better than when cutting significant weight.

Injury History and Fight-Night Health

Previous injuries impact durability and performance. Tom Aspinall's eye injury history from his no-contest with Ciryl Gane reminds bettors that even champions carry vulnerabilities. Research fighters' injury histories and pay attention to any reported ailments leading into fight week.

Stylistic Evolution and Improvements

MMA is constantly evolving. Fighters who show marked improvements between fights—adding new skills, improving takedown defense, or developing knockout power—often exceed market expectations. Women's bantamweight champion Kayla Harrison transitioning from Olympic judo to well-rounded MMA exemplifies stylistic evolution that creates betting value.

Where Can I Bet On The UFC?

If you're serious about UFC betting, you'll want to check out different sportsbooks to see which ones offer the best odds and most diverse betting markets. Line shopping across multiple books can significantly increase profitability over time.

In the days before a big event, check out Odds Shark's MMA fight analysis, detailed fighter breakdowns, and our Best UFC Betting Sites page to see which sportsbooks are most conducive to your betting needs. Compare odds, evaluate prop offerings, and take advantage of promotions to maximize your UFC betting experience.

With UFC events happening nearly every weekend and major pay-per-views featuring champions like Islam Makhachev, Tom Aspinall, Ilia Topuria, and rising stars throughout the year, there's never a shortage of betting opportunities in the world's premier MMA organization.