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Canelo Alvarez vs Caleb Plant Odds & Prediction: Fight for Undisputed Title

Canelo Alvarez (left) is favored in the Canelo Alvarez vs Caleb Plant odds.

After Canelo Alvarez stopped Billy Joe Saunders on May 8, only one man stands between him and the undisputed super middleweight championship and that man is Caleb Plant. The two men appear to be on a collision course, with Canelo holding the WBA, WBC, WBO and The Ring Magazine super middleweight titles, while Plant is the IBF super middleweight champion.

Although a fight hasn’t been officially announced, a common path for big-name fighters is to compete on Cinco de Mayo weekend and then have another bout in September. Alvarez stopped Saunders on Cinco de Mayo weekend and September looms. The early betting line has Canelo as the favorite and Plant set as the underdog.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Canelo vs Plant odds with Alvarez set as the -600 favorite and Caleb the +400 underdog. This means that you would have to wager $600 to profit $100 on a Canelo victory while a $100 bet on a Plant win would profit you $400.

Canelo vs Plant Odds

Canelo Alvarez-600
Caleb Plant+400

Odds as of May 11 at Bovada

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Our sports betting calculator tells us that Canelo’s -600 betting odds represent an implied win probability of 85.71 percent while Plant’s implied win probability is 20.00 percent.

New to betting on the fights? Be sure to check out our great How to Bet on Boxing guide. Also, keep an eye on our boxing odds page for the latest up-to-date Canelo vs Plant betting odds.

Canelo vs Plant Odds Analysis

The -600 betting line for Canelo falls right in line with what we have been seeing when he faces higher-quality competition. Of course, when he has fought the likes of Avni Yildirim and Rocky Fielding, we’ve seen his odds balloon to over -1000. Most recently, he was the -700 chalk when he fought Billy Joe Saunders.

Plant is an underdog for the second time

At the beginning of 2019, Plant had his first world title fight against Jose Uzcategui, walking to the ring as a +130 underdog and walking away with the IBF gold. This will be his first true test as champion and that is evident in the odds as his three title defenses saw him as a favorite of -2000 or greater.

Canelo vs Plant Preview

Right now, I think there is a strong argument for Alvarez to be crowned the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world and what is also impressive is that he competed three times in six months and could return in a short time again.

Canelo’s counter-striking is on another level as his head movement has improved over the years, putting him in better position to land heavy shots. His investment to the body early in fights tends to drop his opponents’ hands, creating openings he will attack later to close the show. He can be hit repeatedly with jabs but his foes have to be careful with that approach because if he slips the punch, they are vulnerable to his dangerous counters.

Can Plant Lull Canelo to Sleep?

One of my favorite aspects of watching “Sweethands” fight is his change of speed. His movement around the ring appears flat-footed and slow, but then all of a sudden he will burst forward with a 1-2 that is crisp and accurate.

His jab is his bread and butter and sets up all of his other shots. He does lack big knockout power, stopping just two of his last eight opponents and 12 of 21 overall. Plant is more of a combination fighter and does a great job putting shots together if his opponent doesn’t fire back.

Canelo vs Plant Pick

Plant will have to stick to his jab to keep Canelo away from him, using his 3.5-inch reach advantage. That said, I mentioned he throws combinations when his counterparts don’t fire back, but Canelo is one of the best counter-strikers in boxing today, if not the best.

I think that if Plant is going to use the approach of trying to repeatedly catch Canelo with a stiff jab without getting into the fray, he can only sustain that for so long. Alvarez will be the bully in this fight and will work off of Plant’s jab.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez (-600) via knockout in rounds 7-9