The No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer, Canelo Alvarez, returns to the squared circle on Cinco de Mayo weekend as he takes on Dmitry Bivol. Canelo vs Bivol will have the WBA (Super) light heavyweight title on the line and marks Canelo’s return to the weight class for the first time since 2019.
This fight is taking place on May 7 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and can be seen on DAZN PPV as part of a Matchroom Boxing production. When it comes to Canelo vs Bivol odds, it is the champ, Bivol, who is the betting underdog.
After Joe Fortenbaugh nailed his Fury vs Whyte pick a couple of weeks ago, he’s back again with his Canelo vs Bivol best bet:
Canelo vs Bivol Odds
Online sportsbook BetUS has listed the Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol betting odds by setting Canelo as the -500 chalk and Bivol as the +350 underdog option. This means to profit $100 with an Alvarez win, you must lay $525, while a $100 winning wager on the champ would net you $375.
Odds as of May 7 at BetUS
To further understand the odds, we can check out our sports betting calculator to paint a clearer image. There we can see that Canelo’s odds translate to an implied win probability of 83.33 percent while Bivol’s line represents a 22.22 percent implied win probability.
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Canelo vs Bivol Betting Odds Analysis
Bettors may be licking their chops seeing the Saul “Canelo” Alvarez betting line. While -500 may seem quite chalky, he has been a favorite of -600 or shorter in each of his last four fights, including two bouts that saw him as a four-figure favorite. This line is similar to that of his light heavyweight debut against Sergey Kovalev that saw Canelo score an 11th-round knockout.
Bivol An Underdog For The First Time
Likewise with the champ, having Dmitry Bivol as the plus-money option for the first time is very intriguing. His next-longest odds came when he was a -600 favorite against Sullivan Barrera back in 2018, scoring a 12th-round stoppage.
Canelo vs Bivol Preview
It only makes sense for Canelo to jump up in weight once again after becoming the first-ever undisputed four-title super middleweight champion with his 11th-round knockout of Caleb Plant. That victory brought his record to 57-1-2 with 39 knockout wins.
Alvarez presents a problem in many facets of a fight. If his opponent fights long, his devastating counters will expose those jabs and straights; if an opponent wants to hop in the phone booth, he is asking to not go 36 minutes. Canelo’s head movement in the pocket allows him to avoid damage while opening areas to attack, notably to the body with his ferocious work to the abdomen.
Toughest Test For Bivol
Not only is Bivol laying his title on the line but also his perfect 19-0 record that includes 11 knockouts. He heads into this fight having gone the distance in six straight bouts, which is a little surprising since his style has him pressing forward on his front foot with an active jab and fast counters.
I like that Bivol will often mix up his left hand with a jab and a hook, sometimes within the same combination, while reserving the right hand for bigger moments in the fight. Dmitry is fast and uses it well to land his second punches in a combo, typically drawing a reaction with his jab and then finding the opening to land with his hooks.
Canelo vs Bivol Pick
This is going to be a tremendous fight. Bivol may actually have the slight speed advantage but Canelo no doubt will have the power edge, even though he’s the man moving up in weight.
While I do think Bivol will be able to score points with his jab, my concern would be the followup shots as he typically will stay in the pocket and counter faster than his foes. I’m not sure if he can do that and absorb the body attack that will surely be coming.
Prediction: Canelo Alvarez (-500) Via Decision (-140)
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Odds Shark Staff Mon, Jun 27, 2:58pmVideo