How does the eternal question go? “What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?” That’s the type of matchup we’re looking at with a potential lightweight showdown between Ryan Garcia and Gervonta Davis.
A battle between Garcia and Davis, featuring two of the fastest, most dynamic boxers on the planet, would be a true super fight. That’s why after his knockout win over Javier Fortuna, “Kingry” called out Davis, the WBA’s lightweight champion.
Davis, considered the 10th-best active pound-for-pound boxer, sports a record of 27-0, with 25 wins by knockout. While Garcia is the top contender at 135 pounds, it’s still easy to see why “Tank” opens as a moderate favorite in Davis vs Garcia odds.
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Davis vs Garcia Odds
Odds as of August 5 via Bodog
Online sportsbook Bodog has been quick to offer a betting line on this potential lightweight bloodbath. Davis is pegged as the -175 favorite, while Garcia enters as the +135 underdog.
That means a successful $100 bet on Davis would pay out $157.14, while a $100 bet that hit on Garcia would produce $235.
According to our sports betting calculator, Davis’ odds translate to an implied win probability of 63.64 percent, while Garcia’s underdog odds translate to an implied win probability of 42.55 percent.
Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia Betting Odds Analysis
Davis last fought on May 28 – a KO win over Rolando Romero – and Garcia defeated Fortuna on July 16. If this bout were to get booked soon, the fight would likely happen sometime this winter, ideally at a massive venue.
For Garcia, he’d be in unfamiliar territory as the underdog. The 23-year-old has entered his most recent bouts at -1200, -2000 and -350, respectively. At 23-0, the California native has been pretty comfy with his matchups, and the odds have reflected that. It’s worth wondering how much the psychological concept of fighting as an underdog adds to the already tough challenge of facing Davis.
Odds-wise, the 27-year-old is more prepared for such a fearsome foe like Garcia. While Davis was a favorite in all his most recent matchups, he’s still tangled with legit boxers such as Isaac Cruz and Rolando Romero, and either fought them to a decision (Cruz) or turned their lights out early (Romero). -175 chalk is light for Davis, but he’s used to stiff competition.
Davis has a 92.59 percent knockout rate in his boxing career, while Garcia has KO’ed 82.61 percent of his pro opponents.
Davis vs Garcia Betting Preview: Kingry Has The Size, Reach
Davis is five-foot-five with a 67.5-inch reach, while Garcia stands five-foot-10 with a 70-inch reach. There aren’t a ton of boxers out there with better physical skill sets than Davis, but Garcia’s reach and size figure to be X factors in a potential clash at 135 pounds.
Since Garcia is longer and taller, Tank must get close to tangle with the 23-year-old. At that point, if any of Davis’ bombs fall short, he’ll end up right in Kingry’s wheelhouse, where the kid’s whip-like left hand could clip him in the head for devastating consequences.
Gervonta Davis on target 🎯— Boxing World UK 🥊🏴 (@BoxingWorldUk) June 27, 2021
Mario Barrios straight back up & ready to rock 🥊
What Davis lacks in reach, though, he makes up for with explosiveness and power. In his fight against Mario Barrios, who boasts the same height and reach as Garcia, Tank proved that he can be dangerous, even from distance. The southpaw spent a lot of time backing up in the early rounds but blasted a beautiful right hook out of nowhere that knocked down Barrios in the eighth round.
Ultimately, Davis found a rhythm, weaving and advancing on Barrios before putting him down with a shot to the body, then a fight-ending left hook. Using the Barrios fight as a blueprint, the game plan is there for Davis to defeat Garcia.
Conditioning Will Make All The Difference
Garcia is famous for the speed of his hands and his athleticism in the ring. While he may not possess the pure power or timely elusiveness that Davis does, Kingry might find a recipe for victory if he can outlast Tank into the later rounds, where conditioning makes all the difference.
Davis hit a wall in his fight against Cuban veteran Yuriorkis Gamboa in 2019. That was Davis’ lightweight debut, which included an added weight cut as a possible reason for why his pace notably declined by the eighth round. Tank seemed a little surprised that Gamboa could withstand so much damage, but when his adversary lingered too long in the pocket, the Baltimore native put him down with a left cross.
Gamboa, in his late 30s at the time, wasn’t fast enough to tag the tired Davis when moments presented themselves. Garcia, who is younger and faster, might have a chance to do damage if he can stick around beyond the eighth, ninth and 10th rounds.
Davis vs Garcia Pick
Both fighters have limited flaws, which makes this such an intriguing matchup. Davis has much more power and big-fight experience, while Garcia is slightly younger with a moderate edge in speed and conditioning.
If, as we expect, Garcia has improved some of his vulnerabilities, such as leading with his chin in the air, then there’s a good chance this fight goes to the judges’ scorecards. In that case, Davis – who has improved his gas tank since his bout vs Gamboa – will test his mettle when his body is on the verge of giving out. Look for Tank to pull off the victory.
Pick: Davis (-175) by decision (TBD)
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Odds Shark Staff Tue, Aug 2, 2:09pmVideo