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Boxing: Spence Jr. vs Porter Odds and Prediction

Spence Jr. vs Porter Betting Odds

Two of the welterweight titles will be unified on Saturday at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, as Shawn “Showtime” Porter collides with Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr. The IBF welterweight champion, Spence Jr., is a -900 favorite in this fight with the WBC titleholder, Porter, coming back at +555.

Errol Spence Jr. vs Shawn Porter

Date/Time: September 28, 9 p.m. ET

TV Coverage: FOX PPV

Opening Odds: Spence (-1000) | Porter (+550) (Line History)

Odds Analysis

It comes as no surprise to see Spence as a sizable favorite in this bout, which is par for the course recently for the New York native. The Truth was most recently a -450 favorite against Mikey Garcia and -300 against Kell Brook to win the IBF title in 2016.

On the other hand, this is the second time in the last three fights that Porter has been an underdog. He closed at +125 against Danny Garcia for the vacant WBC title in 2018, a bout that he won. Showtime was also an underdog in his bout with Keith Thurman for the WBA belt in 2017, a fight Porter lost by unanimous decision.  

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Porter has really good instincts and does a great job at staying light on his feet, slipping punches before finding his opportunities to bite down on his mouthpiece and let his hands fly. His footwork is exceptional and he uses it to make his opponent miss and to get in close to throw flurries of punches, overcoming his short stature for the division. Lastly, he moves almost as well in the 12th round as he does in the first, but he lacks true knockout power, having not earned a win in that fashion since stopping Andre Berto in 2017.

Meanwhile, Spence is extremely good at maintaining distance and using his jab to set up his offense and keep his opponent at bay. With the use of his strong jab, he piles on the punches and wears on his foe until he starts to let his left hand fly, which puts them in a bad way. Of The Truth’s 25 wins, 21 have been by knockout and his unanimous-decision win over Mikey Garcia in March was his first fight to go to the judges’ scorecards since 2014, a span of 11 fights.

I think that Porter is going to have some difficulties closing the distance in this fight as Spence fires that stiff jab out so quickly and powerfully that it should stop Showtime in his tracks more often than not. Porter may have a slight speed advantage in this bout but power and strategy lean in favor of Spence.

Prediction: Errol Spence Jr. (-900) via decision (-160)

Errol Spence Jr. vs Shawn Porter Betting Odds
BoxerOdds
Errol Spence Jr.-900
Shawn Porter+550

Odds as of Sept. 28 at Bovada