2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds and Expert Picks

Everyone go ahead and take a deep breath. The Travelers Championship left us absolutely drained as we sweated and panicked through our Harris English outright winner selection. Not only does the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic have its work cut out for itself, but so do we, as we have now connected on two pre-tournament outright bets over the last four weeks.

A relatively new venue on the PGA Tour, Detroit Golf Club will take center stage this week. The first two editions of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club provided two riveting storylines. In 2019, Nate Lashley, fresh off a Monday qualifier, boat raced the field, finishing at 25-under for the week and capturing his first PGA Tour victory. At most sportsbooks, Lashley wasn’t even listed in the outright market pre-tournament, showing you just how unlikely the victory was.

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Then last year, in 2020, the new and improved Bryson DeChambeau outdueled Matthew Wolff in the final round to win by three-strokes at 23-under. This was DeChambeau’s first victory after his body transformation was completed. Fresh off the quarantine, DeChambeau bombed and gouged his way to his sixth PGA Tour title. While he, Wolff, and others were able to provide the fireworks over last year’s Fourth of July weekend, will someone new step into the fold for this year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic?

The 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic should hopefully make for yet another compelling week on the PGA Tour. At Bovada, to no one’s surprise, DeChambeau sits atop the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic odds board at +750, with an implied probability of 11.76 percent. If successful, a $100 bet on him would net you $750 profit. However, he’ll have his work cut out for him as Masters champions, Patrick Reed and Hideki Matsuyama follow close behind at +1400 and +1600 respectively.

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Odds as of June 29 at Bovada

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Will Bryson DeChambeau Be Able to Defend His Rocket Mortgage title?

As the prohibitive favorite coming into the week, DeChambeau holds the distinct honor of also being the defending champion. At the time, he took an unorthodox approach to his Rocket Mortgage Classic victory, but one we have now grown accustomed to seeing from him. Pulling driver off-the-tee on every hole, DeChambeau was actually negative in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week, a rarity these days for a PGA Tour winner.

He arrives to Detroit this year in a very similar position compared to 12 months ago. DeChambeau is coming off a top-20 finish at the Travelers Championship, which was on the heels of contending at the U.S. Open, and another top-20 finish at The Memorial Tournament. At +750, the odds are a bit too steep for my liking, but I’ll definitely be looking at his live 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic odds once the tournament is underway as I do believe DeChambeau will go back-to-back at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Can a First-Time Winner Break Through?

If not DeChambeau, then who? That really is the main question one has to be asking themselves this week as we prepare for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In 2019, Lashley was able to breakthrough for his first PGA Tour victory, so my eyes turn to another potential maiden victory. If the case, the likeliest candidate would have to be Will Zalatoris.

The former Wake Forest standout has yet to wrap up his PGA Tour status and needs a victory in order to do so. This week at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic could be the ideal position for him to pull it off. But, he’s not the only one who could claim their breakthrough title in Detroit, as Doc Redman, Hank Lebioda, Cameron Tringale, and Doug Ghim all have the potential to play a role in this tournament.

Course and Analysis:

This will be the third straight year that we see Detroit Golf Club on the PGA Tour. Before, this tournament would typically be played down in my neck of the woods, at courses such as TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, Robert Trent Jones Golf Club, or Congressional Country Club back when it was known as the AT&T National hosted by the one, the only Tiger Woods.

Playing to a par-72 and nearly 7,400 yards, it’s a bit difficult to decipher what this Donald Ross design truly rewards. DeChambeau kind of broke all of our brains last year en route to his victory. Ross was also responsible for the likes of East Lake GC and Sedgefield CC so some crossover to those events may be an angle to attack this week.

What I know for sure is that par-4 scoring will be important as both DeChambeau and Lashley led in said category when they won. That combined with making plenty of birdies and your typical ball-striking metrics is the baseline for our analysis. In 2019 and 2020, this event turned into a bit of a putting contest, so that may be something to keep an eye on as we make our selections for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Expert Picks:

Jason Kokrak (+2800 to win):

If we were to go down the DeChambeau road to victory, an off ramp may lead us in the direction of Kokrak. By way of long drives and hot putting, the recent Charles Schwab Challenge victor could attack Detroit Golf Club in a similar manner that DeChambeau did a year ago. Clearly comfortable in the moment, I wouldn’t expect him to wilt down the stretch if a Sunday duel were to present itself.

A two-time winner on the PGA Tour this season, Kokrak has taken down two of the bigger names in the sport. At the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek, Kokrak and Xander Schauffele engaged in a Sunday shootout in its truest form. Then most recently at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial CC, Kokrak got the job done against native Texan and fan favorite, Jordan Spieth.

While he surprisingly missed the cut at the U.S. Open, I believe it was just a small blemish on his 2021 resume. At Torrey Pines, Kokrak turned in one of the worst around-the-green performances of his career and is something I wouldn’t expect to travel to Detroit. What I do expect to show up is his ball-striking and his putting, which is more than enough to put Kokrak on my betting card this week.

Rickie Fowler (+5000 to win):

What’s the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. While things didn’t work out for Fowler last week at the Travelers Championship, I still like what I saw out of him. It was really just a few wayward shots that were his undoing, and with the lack of penalty areas at Detroit GC, he should be able to keep his ball in play on a more consistent basis this week.

He’s played well here over the last two years as well. With his sponsor being Rocket Mortgage, questions around his pre-tournament availability will inevitably arise, but I think that’s a bunch of smoke. After a T-46 in 2019, Fowler followed it up with a T-12 in 2020, posting +4.9 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in the process.

This year he arrives in the midst of a bit of a resurgence, albeit not last week. Before his missed cut at the Travelers, Fowler finished in a tie for 11^th at the Memorial and a tie for eighth at the PGA Championship. I honestly was expecting this number to be a touch lower just based off recent form, course history, and the general public’s love for Fowler. I’ll happily go back to the well at +5000 with the hopes that last week was just speed bump on his return to form.

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Brandt Snedeker (+8000 to win):

As you can sort out by now, we are targeting those players who can get hot with the flat stick and Snedeker would most certainly fall into that category. While it hasn’t been as hot as we would like lately, a return to a Donald Ross design should do wonders for the man who has found his fair share of success on them in the past.

Boasting victories at both Sedgefield CC and East Lake GC, Snedeker clearly has a high comfort level on Donald Ross courses. A T-5 here in 2019 further confirms our thinking as Snedeker gained +7.5 SG: Putting that week and should be able to post a fraction of that number this week.

While the iron numbers from the Travelers don’t look fantastic, it was really just the second round that was Snedeker’s undoing. I like him to get back on track this week, which appears to be a common theme with my selections as I type it out one last time. Nevertheless, two top-20's and a top-10 over his last seven starts is enough form for me to give Snedeker the benefit of the doubt this week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

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