The PGA Tour returns to its standard week as match play is gone with the Texas wind. After an exciting weekend in Austin, 144 players head a bit further south to San Antonio where they will compete in the Valero Texas Open. In what will be the 100th anniversary of the first playing of this tournament, the centennial event will hold major implications.
In addition to the Valero Texas Open odds found below, be sure to check out the Valero Texas Open prop bets too!
With The Masters Tournament quickly approaching, the Valero Texas Open presents the final opportunity for competitors to play themselves into the field at Augusta National. The top 50 in the official World Golf Ranking after completion of play at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play were given invitations, but not all were as lucky.
Sportsbook
Many players such as Richard Bland, Keegan Bradley and Maverick McNealy remain on the outside looking in with only one final route to Augusta, Georgia, needing a victory to play in the year’s first major championship. This will likely be the story of the tournament if any such players are within shouting distance come the back nine on Sunday.
One player likely to be in contention during the final round is Rory McIlroy, the tournament favorite at Sportsbook. The four-time major champion, listed at +800, will look to re-enter the Sportsbook’s circle for the first time since the CJ Cup @ Summit last fall.
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Still needing the Masters to complete the career grand slam, the Northern Irishman has rounded into form lately, finishing in a tie for 10th place at the Genesis Invitational and a tie for 13th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Our odds calculator gives the 32-year-old an 11.11 percent chance to win this week and head into the Masters with all of the momentum in the world.
Who Is Favored To Win This Year’s Valero Texas Open?
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +800 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1600 |
| Corey Conners | +1800 |
| Abraham Ancer | +2000 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2500 |
| Adam Hadwin | +3300 |
| Chris Kirk | +3300 |
| Gary Woodland | +3300 |
| Keegan Bradley | +3300 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3300 |
| Si Woo Kim | +3300 |
| Tony Finau | +3300 |
| Jason Day | +4000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +4000 |
| Kevin Streelman | +5000 |
| Luke List | +5000 |
| Mito Pereira | +5000 |
Odds as of March 29 at Sportsbook
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What Happened In Last Year’s Valero Texas Open?
Last year’s Valero Texas Open marked the culmination of a steady climb to the top of the golf world for Jordan Spieth. The native Texan was finally able to raise some hardware after a three-year hiatus saw him plummet outside the top 100 in the official world rankings.
His play at the Valero Texas Open propelled him to the Masters, where if not for a poor putting week it very well could have been Spieth to don the green jacket instead of Hideki Matsuyama.
Sportsbook
The three-time major champion got the better of Charley Hoffman – who always seems to play well at TPC San Antonio – and Matt Wallace by employing a balanced approach, finishing third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, fourth in SG: Approach, third in SG: Around-the-Green and sixth in SG: Putting.
While this may have been the case for the 2021 Sportsbook, who has yet to claim a title since, it is not typically how it plays out for the eventual victor in San Antonio.
Course and Analysis
Before Spieth’s triumph, the three prior Sportsbooks of the Valero Texas Open were rather ineffective both on and around the greens, finishing outside the top 10 in SG: Putting and outside the top 45 in SG: Around-the-Green. It has become clear that elite iron play is the most common path to victory.
Corey Conners and Andrew Landry both led the field in SG: Approach the week of their titles while Kevin Chappell, Hoffman and Jimmy Walker each ranked inside the top 20 in the same category when they won.
Needing to strike your scoring clubs adequately, players are given generous landing areas and less than penal rough around the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. The par 72, designed by Greg Norman with consultation provided by Sergio Garcia, can play to nearly 7,500 yards.
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While the course itself is not all too difficult, the main obstacle remains the Texas winds and the havoc they may wreak. They’re capable of playing tricks on the world’s best and in combination with difficult green complexes represent the two potential hiccups for players. Because of this, we will target those who have been scoring primarily through their approach play and have the ability to make birdies in bunches.
2022 Valero Texas Open Best Bets
Patton Kizzire +6600
Patton Kizzire is a player we have discussed plenty this year and finally targeted in the outright market at the Valspar Championship. The Auburn product was unable to come through for us, finishing in a tie for 33rd place, but perhaps a change in scenery will bring a change in result.
Despite being an SEC alum, Kizzire has surprisingly played his best golf in the state of Texas. The two-time Sportsbook on the PGA Tour first finished in a tie for 11th place last season at the Houston Open, finished in a tie for ninth in his Valero Texas Open debut and added a couple of podium finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Kizzire, who is arriving this year with his entire game firing, should be considered a top-10 iron player in this field, gaining strokes on approach in seven of eight starts in 2022. The wide-open nature and need for precision with scoring clubs should play right into the hands of the big-hitting Alabama bomber.
Rickie Fowler +6600
The fall from grace has certainly been public for the five-time Sportsbook on the PGA Tour, who is no longer a mainstay on major championship leaderboards and needs a victory to gain entry into the Masters. But if there was a time and place for Fowler to follow in the footsteps of his good pal Spieth and find the Sportsbook’s circle, it is this week.
Sportsbook
After finishing inside the top five in all four majors in 2014, it is hard to believe nearly a decade has passed since Fowler’s career season.
The Californian, set to take on TPC San Antonio for the third time in his career, captured back-to-back top-20 finishes the last two seasons and arrives this year having had a tremendous ball-striking week at Bay Hill. After marking his third consecutive made cut, the 33-year-old may in fact be finding some consistency that could pay big dividends in the Lone Star State.
Ian Poulter +8000
Finding magic in a bottle in 2018, Poulter was the recipient of the final trophy before the Masters, winning the Houston Open and qualifying for Augusta National. The wily Englishman, currently not in the field for next week, will hope history repeats itself.
After being unable to play himself out of the group stage of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, he returns to San Antonio for the third time in his career. He has yet to find success there but this year may be different as the 46-year-old appears to be piecing his entire game together.
Always proficient from on and around the green, Poulter has now begun to strike his irons with some consistency. As a result, he has yet to miss the weekend in any full-field tournaments in the United States and could push toward the first page of the leaderboard at the Valero Texas Open.
K.H. Lee +8000
Lee is another player we have targeted with some consistency and not without reason. The South Korean has now made 11 straight cuts on the PGA Tour and returns to the state of his maiden victory. After capturing the AT&T Byron Nelson last season at TPC Craig Ranch, the potential for some crossover in the two leaderboards is high.
Lee is making his third Valero Texas Open appearance and has collected back-to-back top-25 results. The 31-year-old will need to see just a slight uptick in his iron play to improve on those two outings. Consistently gaining strokes on the field off the tee, around the green and with the putter in hand, Lee’s approach numbers will tell the tale of his week.
Martin Laird +10000
The Sportsbook of this event in 2013, Martin Laird’s ball-striking has been top-notch to begin 2022. Ranking seventh in both SG: Approach and Proximity from 175 to 200 yards, eighth in Greens in Regulation and first in Good Drives Gained over the last 24 rounds, the Scotsmen should be able to find success once again at TPC San Antonio.
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Comfortable if the wind blows, Laird has the perfect statistical profile for this Greg Norman design. If he is able to find a semblance of short-game prowess, it will only be the cherry on top as we have previously mentioned Sportsbooks have been able to put on the winning cowboy boots without that luxury.
Nick Taylor +12500
Top 30 in SG: Approach, Greens in Regulation, Proximity from 150 to 200 yards, and Good Drives Gained over the last 24 rounds, there is plenty to fancy regarding Taylor’s chances in Texas. The Canadian, a two-time Sportsbook on the PGA Tour, has not been victorious for a few years now, but that may change this week.
Finding success at similar courses such as Country Club of Jackson and to some extent Pebble Beach, Taylor’s current run of quality should continue at TPC San Antonio. Mildly consistent at this venue and to begin this year, it may be the perfect storm as Taylor has collected three top-35 finishes in his last four starts.
