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2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds: Analysis & Betting Preview

McKinzie Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds Favorite Santa Anita

The $6-million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) closes out this year’s 14-race, two-day championship event at Keeneland on Saturday.

One of the deepest Classic fields in recent memory will head to the gate for the 1¼-mile test with Horse of the Year honors hanging in the balance, so check out our expert horse racing betting advice and Breeders' Cup Classic odds.

The field includes Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Authentic and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law, who will both step out of the three-year-old division to face older runners for the first time in their careers.

Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Swiss Skydiver was being considered for the Classic, but despite already beating the boys, she will stick to the $2-million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) earlier on the card.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will be seeking his fourth Classic win when he sends out an imposing trio of runners in Improbable, Maximum Security and Authentic.

The Breeders’ Cup will be televised on the NBC Sports Network from 12 noon to 2:30 p.m. ET and then on NBC from 2:30 to 6 p.m. The post time for the Classic is 5:18 p.m. ET.

Here are the full odds to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic along with betting analysis of each horse:

Odds to Win the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic

2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds
Horse (Lane)Odds
Improbable (8)+275
Tiz the Law (2)+400
Maximum Security (10)+450
Tom’s D’Etat (4)+450
Authentic (9)+500
By My Standards (3)+2000
Tacitus (1)+2500
Global Campaign (7)+3300
Higher Power (6)+3300
Title Ready (5)+10000

Odds as of November 7 at Bovada

Betting Analysis For Each Horse

Let’s meet the field for the 37th running of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (by post position) with Improbable (+275) leading the latest Breeders' Cup odds, provided by Bovada):

1 - Tacitus (+2500)

-Trainer: Bill Mott

-Jockey: Jose Ortiz

The Mott trainee set the early fractions and weakened to finish third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in his last outing. His lone win in five starts this year was the Suburban (G2) which was at the 1¼-mile distance. He was third in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes last year. Outsider.

2 - Tiz the Law (+400)

-Trainer: Barclay Tagg

-Jockey: Manny Franco

This colt has to beat not one, not two, but three Baffert runners in here. The colt had a four-race winning streak snapped last out in the Kentucky Derby where he was beaten 1¼ lengths by Authentic, who took the field gate to wire. He regressed off a career top earned winning the Travers (G1) at Saratoga at 1¼ miles. The colt seems to run better with a bit more spacing between his races, which he gets Saturday.

The colt should get a perfect stalking trip behind what could be a lively early pace and he has shown he can handle the distance. He will bounce back with a better effort in this spot. Three-year-olds have fared well in this race, winning five of the last 13 editions. The colt has worked sharply here and appears to be sitting on a big effort. The one to beat.

3 - By My Standards (+2000)

-Trainer: Brett Calhoun

-Jockey: Gabriel Saez

This son of Goldencents is going to get overlooked here but looks as if he can be in the mix at a decent price. He had earned four straight triple-digit Beyers, last out winning the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs over Owendale. He came up short to Improbable two back in the Whitney (G1) at the Spa, beaten two lengths. He was away poorly in that outing and Improbable was able to get the jump on him heading for home. His only try at 1¼ miles was last year’s Kentucky Derby where he had a lousy trip in a 12th-place finish at +1800. He is going to get a good trip sitting mid-pack and if the speed starts to back up, he is going to be in a good spot heading for home. Live long shot.

4 - Tom’s d’Etat (+450)

-Trainer: Al Stall

-Jockey: Joel Rosario

No elder statesman at the age of seven has won the Classic, and this guy just seems to get better with age. He has made just three starts this year, winning the Oaklawn Mile and Stephen Foster (G2), then came up short in a third-place finish in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga in his final prep. He runs consistent speed figures, with triple-digit Beyers in each of his last nine starts. The +550 current price is not much value. Contender but a possible underlay.

5 - Title Ready (+10000)

-Trainer: Dallas Stewart

-Jockey: Corey Lanerie

The five-year-old is certainly a cut below this group, with a fifth in the Alysheba (G2) and a third in the Fayette (G2) in his last two starts. He has never run fast enough to win a race of this caliber.

The main thing he has going for him is his trainer, Dallas Stewart, who is well known to land long shots in the trifecta in major races, among them Commanding Curve and Golden Soul, who both ran second in the Kentucky Derby at huge prices. Stewart has won two Breeders’ Cup races, but this would be a huge surprise, even for him. Outsider.

6 - Higher Power (+3300)

-Trainer: John Sadler

-Jockey: Flavien Prat

The Sadler trainee has lost six races in a row since an impressive win in the Pacific Classic (G1) last summer at Del Mar. He was soundly beaten by Maximum Security in his last two starts and ran second behind Improbable three back in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1). He was third in the Classic last year, but this year’s edition appears to have come up much tougher. Outsider.

7 - Global Campaign (+3300)

-Trainer: Stanley Hough

-Jockey: Javier Castellano

This colt comes into the Classic in the best form of his career, winning three of his last four starts. However, last out he was the lone speed taking on just four foes in the Woodward (G1) and was able to take the field gate to wire which produced a career top speed figure. He faces a tougher group here and there is more early zip signed up, which will compromise his chances. Outsider.

8 - Improbable (+275)

-Trainer: Bob Baffert

-Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

The first of three Bob Baffert trainees, this colt is likely to be sent off as the betting favorite. He is the most likely of the Baffert trio to win. The colt is coming off back-to-back career tops, winning the Whitney and Awesome Again (G1). He beat Maximum Security soundly by 4½ lengths last out. He won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) three back at the 1¼-mile distance, although that field did not come up that tough.

His running style seems to suit the way the pace flow of this race is setting up although he likely is going to be a short price. The price just seems on the light side in this spot. Contender.

9 - Authentic (+500)

-Trainer: Bob Baffert

-Jockey: John Velazquez

The Kentucky Derby winner was just outgamed in deep stretch in the Preakness last out, beaten a neck by the filly Swiss Skydiver. If she runs big in the Distaff earlier on the card, that would boost this guy’s chances. Baffert has won the Classic three times and each time he won it with three-year-olds.

Of the three Baffert contenders, this guy is likely the one that will be sent early. He is proven at 1¼ miles and has not missed landing in the exacta in his career. He is a threat with his best, but his price may end up drifting south by post time. Contender but possible underlay.

10 - Maximum Security (+450)

-Trainer: Bob Baffert

-Jockey: Luis Saez

Formerly trained by Jason Servis, who was indicted in a doping scheme, he has run well since landing with Baffert. He came off the break and won the San Diego Handicap (G2) in his first start for the trainer, although he won by just a nose. He ran big winning the Pacific Classic (G1), but then was no match for his stablemate Improbable in the Awesome Again, beaten 4½ lengths.

The extra ground here will suit him, but I am not convinced Baffert can keep him going as Servis did last year where he was possibly aided by illegal substances. He will be in the mix but others in here are going to offer more wagering value. Contender.

My Wagering

I am going to bet on Tiz the Law to win and he should be somewhere between +350 and +400. I will play exactas with Tiz the Law on top of By My Standards, Improbable and Maximum Security. I will also play a few exactas with By My Standards on top in case we see an upset.

Mike Dempseys Exacta Best Bets: 2 / 3,8,10 and 2,3 / 2,3,8,10

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Breeders’ Cup for Odds Shark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.