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2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds: Accelerate Price Holds Steady

Breeders' Cup Class Distaff Mile Betting Odds Accelerate Favorite

The countdown to the Breeders’ Cup is on as we are inside of three weeks until the year-end championship event, held this year at Churchill Downs on Nov. 2-3.

The question facing horseplayers in the $6-million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is just how much value early betting favorite Accelerate will be. The five-year-old is the current betting favorite for the Classic at +300 and that price has held steady over the past month.

Accelerate has won three in a row and five of six in 2018. He won the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita in his last outing on Sept. 29.

His trainer John Sadler is one of the most respected conditioners on the West Coast but will come into this year’s race riding a 0-for-41 mark in Breeders’ Cup races.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will be looking for his fourth Classic in the last five years, sending out a pair of major contenders in McKinzie and West Coast.

West Coast is the current fourth choice at +700 and may end up going off at a lighter price. The colt ran third in the 2017 Classic and was second in the Awesome Again, which was his first start since his runner-up finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1).

McKinzie is a talented three-year-old from the Baffert barn that missed the Triple Crown races. He came back off a six-month layoff to win the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) on Sept. 22. The colt has gone from +1600 down to +600 and the second choice in the last month.

2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds 
Catholic Boy+650
West Coast+700
Mind Your Biscuits+1000
Roaring Lion+1200
Thunder Snow+1200
Catalina Cruiser+1600
Vino Rosso+4000
Toast Of New York+5000
Bolt D’Oro+5000

Odds as of October 16 at Bovada

Monomoy Girl Leads Distaffers

Six starts this year and in each, Monomoy Girl crossed the wire first, but she had a five-race winning streak snapped last out when she was disqualified by the stewards for interference in the stretch in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx Racing and placed second.

The Brad Cox trainee is the current favorite for the $2-million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) at Bovada at +150. Three-year-olds have held their own in the race against older horses, winning three of the last seven editions of the Distaff.

Midnight Bisou was a neck behind the favorite in the Cotillion and was the beneficiary of the disqualification, placed first for her fifth win in eight starts this year. She is the third choice in Distaff betting at Bovada at +450.

She finished behind Monomoy Girl when second in the CCA Oaks (G1) and third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) earlier this year.

The Baffert-trained Abel Tasman, who was the runner-up in last year’s Distaff, is the second choice in early wagering at Bovada at +350. The filly won back-to-back Grade 1 races, taking the Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park in June and then the Personal Ensign at Saratoga in August, but what happened in her last outing?

In the Zenyatta (G1) in her final prep for the Distaff, she was off a beat slow and never really threatened in a fifth-place finish, beaten 10 lengths.

With Baffert calling the shots, she figures to bounce back with a better effort. Baffert has not had any success in the Distaff, going 0-for-5 with the best finish coming with this filly in her runner-up finish last year to Forever Unbridled.

2018 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Odds 
Monomoy Girl+150
Abel Tasman+350
Midnight Bisou+450
Wow Cat+800
Eskimo Kisses+1400
Red Ruby+1400
Blue Prize+1600
Wonder Gadot+1600
Moonshine Memories+2500
Paradise Woods+2500

Odds as of October 16 at Bovada

Look for Euros to Dominate Mile

The home team has done well in the $2-million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), winning six of the last seven runnings, but look for the Euro invaders to make their presence known this year.

The top three betting choices in the latest Mile betting at Bovada are Euros led by Polydream, the wagering favorite at +400. The three-year-old filly will be taking on the boys and looking to rebound off a seventh-place finish in the Prix de la Foret (G1) at Longchamp in her last start.

Eight fillies have won the Mile, including four Euro invaders that won it in their three-year-old season, the most recent being the great Goldikova in 2008. Tepin won the race as a four-year-old filly in 2015 for trainer Mark Casse.

Recoletos won the Prix du Moulin (G1) at Longchamp in his last outing and is the second choice in Mile wagering at +500.

Expert Eye is the third choice in Mile wagering at Bovada at +600. The three-year-old colt trained by Sir Michael Stoute comes to the U.S. off a third in the Prix du Loulin de Longchamp (G1) on Sept. 9.

The shortest price among the U.S.-based runners is Oscar Performance at +650. The colt won the Woodbine Mile (G1) in his last start. The Brian Lynch trainee was ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last year.

2018 Breeders’ Cup Mile Odds 
Expert Eye+600
Oscar Performance+650
Lightning Spear+1200
Lancaster Bomber+1200
Gustav Klimt+1400
Without Parole+1400
Analyze It+1400
Delta Prince+1600
Catholic Boy+1800
Lord Glitters+2000
Heart to Heart+3300
Voodoo Song+3300

Odds as of October 16 at Bovada

The Breeders’ Cup will be held on Nov. 2-3 at Churchill Downs with 14 championship races and $30 million in purses up for grabs.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Breeders’ Cup for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

With just under a month to go until the $6-million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the major preps have been decided and the John Sadler-trained Accelerate has seen his price drop and there is not much doubt the five-year-old will be sent off as the betting favorite on Nov. 3.

On Sept. 23, five days before his final tune-up for the year-end championship event, he was listed at +400 in early Breeders’ Cup Classic betting odds at Bovada. After his victory in the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita on Sept. 28, his betting odds have drifted downward to +275.

In his previous start, he won the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar by 12 ¼ lengths and earned a 115 Beyer Speed Figure. His number dropped to a 100 for his last win where he was 2 ¼ lengths ahead of runner-up West Coast, who was returning off a six-month layoff for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

West Coast is the fourth choice in future Classic betting at Bovada at +700.

The three-year-old McKinzie is the second choice in early Classic wagering at Bovada at +500. The colt won the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) off a six-month layoff in his last outing for Baffert.

McKinzie’s lone loss due to DQ

The colt has won four of his five career starts, his lone loss coming in the San Felipe (G2) where he crossed the wire first but was disqualified to second for interference in the stretch.

He was the beneficiary of the disqualification in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) last December where he was second by a half-length to Solomini but placed first.

The duo gives Baffert a strong one-two punch as he looks for his fourth Classic win in the last five years. He won three in a row from 2014 to 2016 with Bayern, American Pharoah and Arrogate.

The three-year-old Catholic Boy is the third choice in early Classic betting at +600. Trained by Jonathan Thomas, the ridgling is a Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt this year.

He won the Belmont Derby (G1) on turf at 1 ¼ miles on July 7 and returned to the main track in his last start where he won the Travers (G1) at Saratoga, also at the Classic distance of 1 ¼ miles.

The Bill Mott-trained Yoshida made his first career start on dirt a winning one, taking the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga on Sept. 1, and is now listed at +1000 in Classic betting at Bovada. He won the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1) earlier this year at Churchill Downs.

Roaring Lion an intriguing possibility

An intriguing addition to the Classic field if he makes the trip across the pond would be Roaring Lion, who is listed at +1000. The colt has won three in a row, taking the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) on turf at Leopardstown in his last outing.

Others that have done most of their best running overseas that likely will start in the Classic include Thunder Snow (+1200), Mendelssohn (+1200) and Gronkowski (+2000).

Diversify, after getting dueled into defeat in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) where he tired to finish fifth, has seen his odds drift up from +800 to +1400. 

The Breeders’ Cup Classic will be contested at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Nov. 3, one of 14 championship races over two days of action.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Breeders’ Cup for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds 
Catholic Boy+600
West Coast+700
Roaring Lion+1000
Thunder Snow+1200
Catalina Cruiser+1600
Vino Rosso+4000
Toast Of New York+4000
Bolt D’Oro+5000

Odds as of October 4 at Bovada