The Houston Astros spanked the visiting Diamondbacks around the park to the tune of 10 runs on Saturday and will send their ace to the hill to attempt a series win today. Arizona is desperate for wins to keep their playoff hopes alive and will turn to Zack Greinke on the mound. The Astros are -190 favorites and the total opened at 7.5 runs.
- Justin Verlander has a career 2.99 ERA and .234 OBA after September 1.
- Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games.
- Arizona has hit 11 home runs in September (24th in MLB).
Diamondbacks vs Astros Game Center
Mound Matchup
You hear guys referred to as big game pitchers or money pitchers – guys who show why they get paid what they get paid. Justin Verlander is a money guy. When the chips are on the line, Verlander shows up, and that’s evidenced by his career 2.99 ERA when the calendar turns to September.
This season, Verlander has a 1.93 ERA in two September starts, pitching 14 innings and allowing just nine hits and three earned runs. The most telling stat is the innings, though. The 35-year-old horse went seven strong in each of his last two outings, proving that he’s once again ready to lead Houston into the postseason.
It hasn’t been as great lately for Arizona’s Zack Greinke. Greinke has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his last six starts and the D-Backs are 3-5 SU with him as the starting pitcher since August 1. You can’t hang it all on the 15-year veteran, though, as he’s kept opposing hitters to a .201 average in the second half with a WHIP less than 1.
Astros Healthy and Hitting
Some pundits were questioning whether Houston would be able to hold off Oakland and Seattle when they were dealing with an injury crisis in July and early August. Since getting guys back healthy, AJ Hinch’s crew have answered that question with their play on the field. Houston has won 11 of their last 13 and have the third-best OPS in the majors since August 15 at .791.
Not to be outdone, the Astros bullpen leads the majors with a 2.41 ERA and are second only to Oakland’s pen with a .202 opponents’ batting average. Hitting and relief pitching to go along with arguably the best starting staff in the majors – I wouldn’t want to run up against this team in the AL playoffs.
My Pick for this Game
Two units on the Astros is a pretty safe bet for this game in my estimation. If you don’t like your return there, maybe take a look at the -1.5 run line (+110) as Houston is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 and covered easily on Saturday.
