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Braves Bats Bust Out, Is Another OVER The Play Tonight?

Austin Riley's Braves are underdogs in the Atlanta vs New York odds for July 28.

Heading into Tuesday’s match-up against the Mets, the Atlanta Braves had scored two runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. Last night the Braves torched Mets starter Jared Eickhoff for seven hits, five walks and 10 earned runs in only 3.1 innings on their way to a 12-5 win.

With two games remaining in this five-game series against the division-leading Mets, the Braves players realize that a couple of wins could go a long way in convincing management to be buyers and not sellers at this Friday’s trade deadline.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
  • Date/Time: July 28, 7:10p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Citi Field
  • TV Coverage: Bally Sports South / WPIX
  • Opening Odds: Mets -126 | O/U 8 (Line History)
  • Braves vs Mets (Matchup Report)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Mets opened as -126 favorites for today’s matchup and the line has pretty much stayed right there after some early betting. The Braves, who are 4-4 at Citi Field this year, are +166 road underdogs. The total for tonight is eight runs. Five of the eight games between these teams at Citi Field this year have finished with a total of UNDER eight.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Five days ago, Braves starter Max Fried struggled against the Phillies, giving up six hits, four walks and four earned runs in only five innings. Fried has started twice against the Mets this year, going 11 innings in those two starts, with three earned runs, a 1.18 WHIP and 15 strikeouts. For the season, Fried is a disappointing 7-6, with a 4.46 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Tylor Megill made his first career start on June 23. His first two career starts were actually both against the Braves. In those two outings, Megill went 9.1 innings, with a 4.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 12 strikeouts. Overall, Megill is 1-0, with a 2.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 30 innings pitched. The righty's last start against Toronto was a six-inning gem, where he allowed no runs, two hits and struck out five.

Atlanta News & Notes

Since the All-Star break, Atlanta has completed 12 games -- one game is suspended. Over that span, Atlanta is 6-6 and has not won or lost consecutive games during that stretch. The Braves had been held to two or fewer runs in six of their last eight games going into last night but put a 12 spot on the board on Tuesday. Austin Riley hit his 18th and 19th home runs in the breakout game, driving in six as well.

Not surprising for a team that is missing two key bats in Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta has gone UNDER the total in six of its last nine games. Joc Pederson is battling stomach issues and is questionable for today’s game.

New York News & Notes

Over their last 10 games, the Mets are 6-4 and sit atop the NL East standings with a 3.5-game lead over Philadelphia and a four-game lead over the Braves. At home this year, New York is an impressive 31-17. The Mets have struggled against left-handers, though, going only 10-19 against starting southpaws.

The total has gone UNDER in six of New York’s last 8 games overall and at home, the Mets have gone UNDER the posted number in four of their last six.

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Betting Pick: OVER 8 (-115)

This will be the third time the Braves bats get to face young Tylor Megill since June 23. Atlanta should be familiar with what Megill throws and carry over some of its offensive momentum from last night.

Meanwhile, Fried hasn’t been great this year. His two starts against the Mets were both pretty good but facing him for a third time this season, the Mets should be able to push across some runs. Take the OVER and watch both teams' offenses get to work.

Shark Bites
  • Braves have a run differential this season of +45.
  • Atlanta is 27-34 against teams who are above .500 this year.
  • The UNDER is 31-15-2 in 48 Mets home games.