I'm back with a mid-week edition of my MLB expert picks, and I've got one selection I'm pretty confident about. It's not that I don't think Pick #1 is going to hit, but with my second selection I'm almost willing to guarantee the Phillies beat the Mets by a few runs today.
Find out why in my MLB expert picks for May 15th:
MLB Expert Picks: May 15th, 2024
Pick 1: Blue Jays vs Orioles Over 8.5 (-110)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 12:35 pm ET
We've got two teams on the opposite sides of the trends in this one. Baltimore's been baseball's fourth-best overs team, hitting at 54.1%. The Jays have been the seventh-best under-team, hitting that mark at 58.5%.
So, why am I leaning toward the over? Because of the pitching. Despite being a Cy Young finalist last year, Kyle Bradish has actually struggled against this Jays lineup. Guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Alejandro Kirk all have career averages over .290 against Bradish, in a significant sample size, too. As a team, the Jays have an .861 OPS against Bradish in 98 career at-bats.
On the Toronto side, Chris Bassitt has been a real hit-or-moss this year. He's had four quality starts, but also four games where he's allowed at least four runs. In two starts against Baltimore last year, Bassitt gave up 12 earned runs.
The key to this specific matchup is the Orioles' ability to hit homers — and Bassitt's proclivity to giving them up. In games where Bassitt has allowed a homer, the run total has gone over eight runs every time.
Pick 2: Phillies -1.5 (+105) vs Mets
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:39 pm ET
Go look at Ranger Suarez's stats, I'll wait. Ya, you read those right. 1.50 ERA, 7-0 record, 0.72 WHIP. This guy's been one of the best in baseball and the Phillies have won every single one of his starts this year. Oh, did I mention that he also owns this current Mets lineup? New York batters have a .190 average and .539 OPS against Suarez in 79 career at-bats.
It should also help this one that the Phillies' offense is really firing right now, too. They've scored at least six runs in five of their last eight games and average 6.25 runs per game over that stretch.
The moneyline odds (around -190) aren't good enough to justify a Phils bet for me, so I'm going to the runline. The Phillies have covered a -1.5 runline in all but one of Suarez's eight starts this year.
