There’s not a lot of opportunities to make money on a Justin Verlander start because he’s usually such a heavy favorite. In fact, Verlander has been -200 or more in eight of his 11 starts this season. Opposing Eduardo Rodriguez today, the Astros are “just” -165, even after winning four of five vs Boston this week.
Standout Stats
- Justin Verlander has a 1.91 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in the month of May. The potent Red Sox lineup has career numbers of .216/.275/.314 on the slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG).
- The Red Sox are 14-15 SU on the road this season. They’re also just 2-4 ATS as an underdog.
- The UNDER has hit in nine of Verlander’s 11 starts this year. However, the OVER has hit in nine of Eduardo Rodriguez’ 10 starts – including seven in a row.
- The Astros roster has a career .333 batting average and 1.015 OPS vs Rodriguez.
- Rodriguez has been tagged for 11 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched and has a 1.73 WHIP in his last two starts.
- The Astros have the No. 4 F5 offense over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, Verlander has a 0.81 F5 WHIP this season.
- Boston’s bullpen has been taxed recently. They’ve had to pitch 30 innings over the last seven days (4th in MLB). That includes 8.1 innings yesterday after David Price left with two out in the first inning.
My Best Bet for Red Sox vs Astros
Houston -0.5 F5
I’m taking the Astros on the first five inning run line at -125. I can sit here and gush about Verlander all day, and we know we will get a good outing from him.
This is as much an endorsement of Mr. Upton as it is a fade of Eduardo Rodriguez. The lefty has lost the confidence of Alex Cora but will be sent back to the mound this afternoon.
I expect Houston to get the early jump here and I’m also playing Astros team total OVER 2.5 F5 and Astros -1.5 full game.
