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Astros Favored To Win ALCS In Game 6

Houston Astros Yordan Alvarez could punch a World Series ticket tonight

The Houston Astros have taken control of the American League Championship Series thanks to back-to-back wins over the Boston Red Sox in Games 4 and 5. The best-of-seven moves back to Houston for Game 6 where the Astros will have the opportunity to book a ticket to their third World Series since 2017.


Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
  • Date/Time: October 22, 8:08 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Minute Maid Park
  • TV Coverage: FS1, FS1-INT
  • Opening Odds: Astros -141 | O/U 8.5 (Line History)
  • Red Sox vs Astros Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Astros come into Game 6 as the home favorites, going off at -141. The Red Sox come in as the underdog at +114, needing a win to stay alive. The total is set at 8.5 runs with the OVER going 5-0 in the series.

Starting Pitchers Analysis  

Luis Garcia gets the nod for Game 6 after a poor showing in Game 2 where he allowed two hits and five earned runs in just an inning of work. The 24-year-old struggled in his last start of the American League Division Series as well, giving up five hits and five earned runs over 2.2 innings against the Chicago White Sox. Garcia posted an 11-8 record in 30 games (28 starts) in the regular season along with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Nathan Eovaldi will be trusted in a must-win Game 6 for the Red Sox. The right-hander started in Game 2 of the series, allowing five hits and three earned runs over 5.1 innings. He then came in as emergency relief for the ninth inning of Game 4, where he got rocked for two hits and four earned runs. Eovaldi went 11-9 this season in 32 starts with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

Boston News & Notes

After offensive explosions in Games 2 and 3, Boston’s bats have gone cold through the last two games, putting up just three runs combined. Game 5 was particularly grim as they managed just one run and three hits, with Rafael Devers (two hits, one RBI) carrying most of the load.

Chris Sale was fine in his start, scattering three hits and two earned runs over 5.1 innings while striking out seven. It was the sixth inning that caused Boston problems as Sale faltered late in his outing, giving up three runs (two earned). Ryan Brasier came in for relief and allowed another two runs as the Astros went up 6-0 and never looked back.

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Houston News and Notes

The Astros got off to a good start in Game 5 as Yordan Alvarez hit a solo shot in the top of the second to put Houston up 1-0. Alvarez came up again in the sixth to kick off the Astros’ five-run inning, launching the ball off the Green Monster for a two-run double. Yuli Gurriel followed up with an RBI double of his own before Jose Siri hit a two-run blooper. Houston put up a whopping 11 hits and nine runs in the game, demonstrating once again why they had the top offence in the majors this season.

Framber Valdez pitched a gem as he went eight innings deep, allowing just three hits and one earned run in the process. Ryne Stanek came in to close out the game with a 1-2-3 ninth inning.

How Boston Will Win:

In both of Boston’s ALCS wins they got out to early leads thanks to grand slams in the first two innings. The Red Sox don’t necessarily need another grand slam, but they do need the bats to show up and put some pressure on the Astros. After all, you aren’t going to win many games scoring two runs.

How Houston Will Win:

The Astros have won the last two games thanks in large part to their pitching, which has allowed just three runs and eight hits in the two contests combined. The offence has shown up when it’s needed to, but you’re going to win a lot of games when you give up just one or two runs. If the Astros can get a decent pitching performance from Garcia, they’ll likely be through to the World Series.

Computer Pick: Boston ML (-105)

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Shark Bites
  • Houston is 4-1 in its last five home games.
  • The OVER is 8-0 in Houston’s last eight games.
  • The OVER is 8-0 in Boston’s last eight games.