The ALCS makes a venue change as the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros contest Game 3 at Minute Maid Park with the series tied 1-1. The Astros took the first game at Fenway Park 7-2 while the Red Sox battled back for a 7-5 win in Game 2. Houston has opened as a -135 favorite for tonight’s game with Boston coming back at +115. Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Keuchel get the ball with the total Sportsbook at 8.5 runs.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Red Sox’ last eight games vs the Astros (avg. combined score: 10.0).
- The total has gone OVER in nine of the Red Sox’ last 11 games (avg. combined score: 12.64).
- The Astros are 7-0 SU in their last seven games after a loss.
Eovaldi looks to remain perfect in postseason play
Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81 ERA) finished September on a high note and carried that momentum into his first career playoff game in the ALDS. Boston went 3-2 SU through Eovaldi’s last five starts of the regular season while he sported an impressive 1.35 ERA. The 28-year-old struggled in road games this season and after he joined the Red Sox at the end of July, they went 3-3 in his six away starts and he had a 5.09 ERA. However, the Texas native got the ball in Game 3 of the ALDS, his first-ever playoff start, in the Bronx vs the Yankees and he hurled seven innings of one-run ball, allowing just five hits in a 16-1 Boston victory.
The righty toed the rubber once this season against the Astros in late June when he was still a member of the Rays. The outing wasn’t a great one as Eovaldi was roughed up for four earned runs, all on solo home runs, while yielding seven hits over six innings in a 5-1 loss at Minute Maid Park. That match was one of just two games in which Eovaldi surrendered multiple home runs. Astros second baseman Jose Altuve launched two solo homers in that game and is a career 5-for-15 vs Eovaldi.
Astros eye a fourth straight victory behind Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA) makes his first home start since mid-September and hasn’t had great success there this season. Houston went 7-9 SU over Keuchel’s 16 trips to the mound at Minute Maid Park and he held a middling 3.90 ERA in those outings, giving up 11 home runs vs just seven in his 18 road starts. The ’Stros have picked up wins in each of the Oklahoma native’s last three appearances, all on the road, including an 11-3 win to close out the Cleveland Indians in Game 3 of the ALDS.
This is the second time this year that Keuchel gets the ball against the Red Sox and he would like a better result this time around. The 30-year-old was tagged for five earned runs on nine hits over six innings in a 6-5 loss at Fenway Park in early September. The numbers haven’t been pretty in Keuchel’s four career starts vs Boston as his clubs are 2-2 SU, including one postseason start, and he holds a 6.20 ERA. The Astros have a 6-2 record over Keuchel’s eight career playoff starts and he has a strong 2.76 ERA in those appearances.
OVER trending for tonight’s game
Boston and Houston have had an average combined score of 10.5 through the first two games of the ALCS and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 8.5 runs. When these two clubs come together, there’s usually plenty of runs as the total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight meetings with an average combined score of 10. Meanwhile, the Red Sox led the majors in runs scored this season and they have gone OVER in nine of their last 11 games with an average combined score of 12.64. Lastly, the total has gone OVER in each of Keuchel’s last three starts vs Boston with an average combined score of 11.
My take on Boston vs Houston
I like the OVER 8.5 in tonight’s game. Both teams have terrific offenses that have combined for 21 runs over the first two games of the ALCS and both pitchers have had their struggles against their opponents. Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in 14 of the last 20 games between these two clubs at Minute Maid Park with an average combined score of 10.5, with only five games over that span going under nine runs. Lastly, the Red Sox have gone OVER in five of their last seven road games with an average combined score of 11.43, with just two games going under nine runs.
