I've nailed at least one winner in my last two total base prop picks, so I think that's success. But, let's try to get a perfect two today.
For May 8th, I've cooked up a few more MLB total base picks, eying two overs. Here are my total base picks today:
Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber O1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 1:05 pm ET
Kyle Schwarber has everything I look for in a total base or hit prop over.
First off, he's on a hot streak. The Philly slugger has 11 hits in his last nine games (including two homers). He's also been historically successful against his opponent pitcher tonight, Chris Bassitt, with a .364 lifetime batting average against the Jays starter (.871 OPS). And, Bassitt has been pretty sketchy lately, allowing 19 hits and 14 runs in his last three starts.
If you agree that Schwarber is in for a big day, you should probably back the Phillies to win here. The Phils are 7-1 this season in games where Schwarber has more than one hit. They're -165 on the moneyline today.
Pick 2: Thairo Estrada O1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
In the last week of games, Estrada has nine hits (including three extra-base knocks). The infielder is hitting .310 in his last 29 at-bats, with an .816 OPS.
He faces a Rockies starter tonight that does nothing but give up hits. Peter Lambert has a 6.38 ERA in his career (5.66 this year) and a 1.58 WHIP (1.50 this year). That's about as good of a total base fade as you can find on the mound. Last time out, Lambert gave up five hits and four runs in 3.1 innings of work against a dreadful Marlins offense.
Estrada is also 3-for-4 with against Lambert in his career, with all three hits being for extra bases.
