The Boston Red Sox will look to clinch the AL East crown tonight when they face their hated rival, the New York Yankees. The Yanks played spoiler by edging the Sox 3-2 last night in the series opener and have their sights set on Red Sox starter David Price. Price has been a train wreck when pitching in the Bronx, giving up 29 earned runs in his last five starts at Yankee Stadium with the Sox going 0-5 SU in those games. The Yankees opened as -140 faves to continue the bludgeoning of Mr. Price.
- The Red Sox are 2-7 SU in their last nine games at Yankee Stadium.
- The Red Sox have lost five straight games at Yankee Stadium with David Price as the starter.
- The OVER has hit in 10 of the Yankees’ last 13 games with Luis Severino as the starting pitcher.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game Center
The Price is Wrong in the Bronx
David Price may be one of the better left-handers in MLB but pitching at Yankee Stadium is his kryptonite. The embattled southpaw has lost five straight games when taking the mound in New York and he’s been awful, for lack of a better word, in those games. The 33-year-old does not look like his dominant self in the Big Apple as he has now given up a whopping 27 earned runs over his last 25 innings pitched in the Bronx, which translates to a 10.44 ERA. I’m not saying this trend will continue but for anyone looking to wager on the Red Sox tonight, you can’t dismiss these stats.
As for the Yankees, they have their own mixed-bag pitcher in Luis Severino, who for the first two months of the season looked to be a great candidate for the Cy Young Award. It’s been a tale of two halves for the once-crowned ace of the Yankees. In his most recent start in Minnesota, he showed the flashes by allowing only four hits and one earned run despite the Yanks losing 3-1.
But prior to that start, he looked lost on the mound and it looked as if the wheels had come off. Since July 1, Severino owns a 5.59 ERA and he has lost his last two starts. He has only faced Boston once at Yankee Stadium this season but that was prior to July 1 when he was on his game, so the pitching matchup between him and Price may be too close to call.
Red Sox Can’t Seem to Get Over the Hump In NYC
The Red Sox have the best record in MLB and own the second-best road record in baseball behind the Houston Astros but when they go into the hostile environment known as Yankee Stadium, they don’t look as dominant. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last seven games in the Bronx and it’s one of the few stadiums in the AL that they have a losing record at in 2018. Price’s track record in the Big Apple is well-documented but even if you take out that one bad loss on July 1, he still allowed six earned runs over seven innings in his last two starts at home vs this lineup, which is hitting a career .318 off him over 296 at-bats.
Totals Bettors Should Take the OVER and Never Look Back
The total opened at 8.5 and this game has OVER written all over it. I have already mentioned how Price has struggled significantly when pitching at Yankee Stadium as he hasn’t allowed less than five earned runs in any of his last five appearances in the Big Apple. Couple that with the fact that the OVER has hit in 10 of Luis Severino’s last 13 starts with an average combined score of 11 runs per game.
My Pick is…
To take the OVER and potentially pair it with the Yankees moneyline or runline. If you’re not a Parlay Petey like I am, then single-bet these and you could still do OK. Price’s history at Yankee Stadium is not one I’m willing to bet against and I think he gets lit up again now that Aaron Judge is back in the lineup.
