The Boston Red Sox are just one win away from securing their spot against the Houston Astros in the ALCS as they look to eliminate their longtime rivals the New York Yankees. The Red Sox swarmed the Yankees last night 16-1 to grab a 2-1 series lead and open tonight’s game as a +100 underdog with New York coming back at -120. On the hill, Rick Porcello faces CC Sabathia with an Sportsbook total of 9 runs.
- The Yankees are 24-8 SU in their last 32 games at home with CC Sabathia as the starter.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Red Sox’ last eight games vs the Yankees.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Red Sox’ last eight games.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game Center
Sabathia has been strong in the Bronx this season
CC Sabathia (9-7, 3.65 ERA) looks to carry his regular-season success at Yankee Stadium into this do-or-die situation tonight. New York went 10-5 SU this season through Sabathia’s 15 starts at home, where he held a respectable 3.12 ERA, and the team is 24-8 SU in his last 32 home starts overall. The California native was victorious in his last two starts of the season, allowing a combined two earned runs over 11 innings in wins over Tampa Bay and Baltimore, but the Yankees had dropped his previous four outings.
This is the fourth time this season that the big lefty takes on the Red Sox lineup. The Bronx Bombers went 1-2 SU in those previous three Sabathia starts vs the BoSox while he had a 4.50 ERA. The 38-year-old’s victory came at Yankee Stadium in late June when he tossed seven innings of one-run ball in an 8-1 win. In the two losses, he was tagged for a combined six earned runs on 12 hits over seven innings with one game at Fenway Park and the other at home.
Sabathia has had good success in postseason play through his career as his clubs have gone 14-8 SU while he holds a 4.18 ERA. The Yankees are 6-1 SU and he holds a 1.65 ERA in his seven career playoff starts at Yankee Stadium. He has made two playoff starts vs Boston, both of them back in 2007 when he was a member of the Cleveland Indians, and he lost both of those games, giving up 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings.
Porcello looks for his first career postseason victory
Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28 ERA) makes his 19th road start of the season looking for continued success. The Red Sox went 11-7 SU through the 29-year-old’s 18 previous road appearances in which he held a modest 3.86 ERA. The New Jersey native was roughed up in the second half of the season, though, as he had a 4.54 ERA in his 13 games after the all-star break, though Boston went 9-4 SU in those contests.
Porcello has pitched well through his four starts vs the Pinstripes this season. The Red Sox went 3-1 SU over those four Porcello appearances while he held an impressive 2.31 ERA. However, the righty’s lone defeat to New York came in the Bronx where he surrendered five earned runs on eight hits over 5.1 innings in a 9-6 loss. Porcello’s clubs are 1-6 SU through his seven career starts at Yankee Stadium and he has an elevated ERA of 5.56 there.
The Boston pitcher is eyeing his first career playoff win after his clubs dropped all five of his previous outings, including a one-game tiebreaker game in 2009 vs Minnesota. The 29-year-old made one postseason start vs the Yankees in 2011, when he was roughed up for four earned runs on five hits over six innings in a 10-1 loss. Porcello holds a 4.91 ERA over those five games, once again including the tiebreaker game in 2009.
Should you be on the OVER in this game?
The first three games of this series have had an average combined score of 11.33 and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 9 runs. Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in four of Porcello’s five career postseason starts, including the play-in game vs the Twins in 2009, and the total has gone OVER in 14 of Sabathia’s 22 career playoff appearances. Additionally, seven of the last eight meetings between the Red Sox and Yankees have gone OVER with an average combined score of 13. Lastly, New York and Boston were the top two teams in the majors for runs scored this season, with the Red Sox scoring 876 runs and the Yankees 851.
My Take on Boston vs New York
Although I think the OVER is a strong play, I like the Yankees to cover the -1.5 runline. Sabathia’s postseason stats are just too hard to ignore. Since he joined the Yankees in 2009, they have gone 12-5 SU when the lefty gets the ball and he sports a 3.24 ERA. But, in the Bronx, the numbers are even better as New York is 6-1 SU while he holds a sparkling 1.65 ERA in seven career playoff starts at Yankee Stadium. Lastly, New York is 24-8 SU in Sabathia’s last 32 home starts, winning 15 of those games by two or more runs.
