Let's hone in some home run props to start off my MLB betting week. It's a high-risk, high-reward market, but I think I've found us some potential reward today.
I've got a pair of homer picks for tonight's games, so follow along for my two home run prop bets for May 1st:
Pick 1: Bryce Harper To Homer (+240)
Rangers vs Phillies Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
Harper homers have been a pretty solid bet this season, with the Phillies 1B launching 10 dingers so far. He's been a bit slower lately, with just one homer in his last 10 games, but I think he gets another tonight due to the matchup.
Bryce has faced Texas starter Jon Gray in 19 career at-bats, and has two homers and three extra-base hits in that stretch. Harper owns a career 1.034 OPS against Gray.
Gray has been pretty good at keeping the ball in the yard this year, but he's allowed over 20 homers in two of the last three seasons.
Pick 2: Gunnar Henderson To Homer (+195)
Cardinals vs Orioles Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
Gunnar is on a heater. The Orioles infielder has four homers in his last 18 at-bats, posting a crazy 1.566 OPS in the last week.
Lance Lynn is also the perfect guy to be betting homers against. The Cards vet has allowed six homers in nine starts this year and let up a league-worst 44 bombs last year.
If you think Lynn is a good fade because of these homers, think otherwise, though. In games where Lynn has allowed a homer this year, the Cards are still 2-2, including beating the Marlins in a contest where he let up three bombs.
