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Cincinnati Looks to Silence Cleveland Bats Again

Luis Castillo's Reds are favored in the Cincinnati vs Cleveland odds.

The Cincinnati Reds improved to 3-1 in their last four games against the Cleveland Indians with a 3-0 win over the Indians on Friday night. The Reds will try to earn another win over the Indians this Saturday night in Cleveland.


Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
  • Date/Time: May 8, 6:10 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Progressive Field
  • TV Coverage: FSHO, STO
  • Opening Odds: Reds -108 | O/U 8 runs (Line History)
  • Reds vs. Indians (Matchup Report)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Reds opened as a small favorite in the second game of this three-game series, but betting action on the Indians has tilted the line slightly with Cleveland now going off as a -109 favorite at home. Cincinnati has settled in as a -101 road underdog and the total has remained set at eight runs. The UNDER is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last five home games against Cincinnati.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Luis Castillo is off to a tough start in 2021 with a 6.07 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP through his first six starts. Cincinnati is just 1-5 in the six games that Castillo has started and he has pitched 5.1 innings or less in all but one of his trips to the mound this season. Castillo was much better in 2020 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 70 innings pitched.

Aaron Civale is 4-0 through his first six starts and has led the Indians to a 5-1 record over that stretch. The 25-year-old boasts a 3.20 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP so far in 2021. Civale has a 3.74 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 career home starts in Cleveland.

Cincinnati News & Notes

The Reds pitching staff has not given up a run over its last 20 innings of work. Sonny Gray pitched seven innings of shutout ball and allowed only two hits and two walks in Cincinnati’s 1-0 win over the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday night. Wade Miley was even better on Friday night against the Indians as he pitched a no-hitter with only one walk allowed and eight strikeouts to lead the Reds to a 3-0 win.

Cincinnati’s excellent pitching performances over the last two games have helped mask the team’s recent offensive struggles. The Reds have scored only four total runs over their last three games since scoring 13 runs in a 13-12 win over the Chicago Cubs on Sunday.

Cleveland News & Notes

The Indians were 9-2 over their last 11 games and 5-0 over their last five games before getting shut out on Friday night. Cleveland was on the right side of a shutout on Thursday night when the Indians completed their sweep over the Kansas City Royals with a 4-0 victory. The team averaged 5.8 runs per game over its last five games before running into Wade Miley.

Cleveland’s 9-2 run came in large part due to the offense averaging 5.28 runs per game over that stretch. The Indians averaged only 3.65 runs per game over their first 20 games of the season. Bouncing back with a strong performance on Saturday night could be key to keeping the confidence high at the plate.

Betting Pick: Cleveland -109

This is a tough matchup to handicap between two teams that have been playing well and pitching well. The Indians have home field and a slight edge in starting pitching here, so we’ll go with Cleveland.


Shark Bites
  • Cincinnati is 5-10 in its last 15 road games.
  • Cleveland is 11-5 in its last 16 games vs. Cincinnati.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 games.