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Mejia vs Matz is a Recipe for Runs!

Steven Matz and the Blue Jays are big favorites Wednesday night hosting the Cleveland Indians.

The Toronto Blue Jays are favored to post their second consecutive win over the Cleveland Indians when the two teams clash Wednesday night at Rogers Centre. On Tuesday, the Jays improved to 4-1 since making their long-awaited return to their home park as Toronto fans got their first up-close look at ace lefty Hyun Jin Ryu, signed as a free agent before the 2020 season.


Cleveland Indians vs Toronto Blue Jays
  • Date/Time: August 4, 7:07 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Rogers Centre
  • TV Coverage: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Sportsnet, Sportsnet 1
  • Opening Odds: Blue Jays -210 | O/U 10 (Line History)
  • Indians vs Blue Jays Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

In their five games at home in the Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays have given up only 12 runs while scoring 24. The oddsmakers opened the Jays as heavy favorites for tonight’s game with a -210 moneyline. The total is set at 10 and is an interesting number to play. The Blue Jays have gone UNDER the total in seven of their last 10 games, but both of tonight’s starting pitchers have really struggled of late.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Indians rookie J.C. Mejia has struggled, to put it politely, with a 1-6 record, a 7.60 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 43 innings pitched. Unfortunately for the young right-hander, things appear to be getting worse before they get better. Over his last three starts, Mejia is 0-2 and has given up 13 earned runs in only 14.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .284 against him on the road and he has an 8.33 ERA away from home.

After a great start to the season, Steven Matz has cooled off significantly. The 30-year-old lefty is 8-6 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the season. However, over his last seven starts, he is 2-4 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Opponents have 39 hits off the southpaw over his last 30 innings.

Indians News & Notes

After last night’s 7-2 loss, Cleveland now trails the Blue Jays by three games in the wild-card race and is six back of Oakland, which holds down the final wild-card spot. The Tribe would have to leapfrog Toronto, the Yankees and Seattle before catching the Athletics. 

With only seven hits last night, the Cleveland bats continue to struggle on the road. The Indians are hitting .226 as a team when playing away from Progressive Field and are now 5-11 in their last road 16 games.

Blue Jays News & Notes

With four wins in their five games at the Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays find themselves in the middle of a real playoff race, trailing Oakland by three games for the second wild-card spot. The Jays would also have to catch Seattle and the Yankees, who are both a game up on Toronto in the standings.

Although they are only 55-49, the Blue Jays have a run differential of +109, suggesting they might be better than their record indicates. The arrival of Jose Berrios at the trade deadline will only help Toronto’s chances of making the playoffs. The Blue Jays now have a 1-2 punch of Ryu and Berrios at the top of their rotation, and an offence that leads the majors in home runs.

Last night the Jays placed Cavan Biggio on the 10-day IL with back tightness.

Betting Pick: OVER 10

I’m trying hard not to overthink this. Mejia has been bad all year. Matz has really struggled over his last seven appearances and he was hit hard against Boston his last time out. Cleveland’s offence has not been good on the road this year, but the Toronto bats can go off anywhere at any time. I’ll take the OVER 10 in this one.

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Shark Bites
  • Cleveland is 5-11 in its last 16 road games.
  • The UNDER is 7-3 in Toronto’s last 10 games.
  • Cleveland is 8-4 in its last 12 games vs Toronto.