Coming off a series loss that saw them get outscored 27-7, the Seattle Mariners will try to regroup as they host the division-leading Houston Astros tonight. The last time the Mariners faced the Astros just under two weeks ago, they swept them at Minute Maid Park in four consecutive games. The M’s will send out Felix Hernandez, who has been awful lately with a 7.42 ERA in five starts (and one relief appearance) since the beginning of July. With numbers like that, it shouldn’t surprise bettors that Seattle opened as a +165 home dog.
- The Mariners are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games with Felix Hernandez as the starter.
- Houston is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Mariners’ last 8 games at home.
View the Astros vs Mariners matchup page
Hernandez May Be on His Last Legs
The Mariners are not a team that can use sentiment when hitting the stretch run of the season so bringing Felix Hernandez from the bullpen seems like a desperation move for a franchise trying to break out of the longest postseason slump in North American sports. The longtime ace’s best days are clearly behind him as he has gotten slugged repeatedly when taking the mound lately.
The righty owns a 4.02 ERA in 12 home starts and the Mariners are 4-8 SU in those games and 2-8 SU in his last 10 starts overall. But since the calendar turned to July, the wheels have really come off as he has allowed 24 earned runs over his last six starts and it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Mariners are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in that span.
As for the Astros, they turn to their pitcher who is trending in the opposite direction in Gerrit Cole. Cole owns an excellent road ERA at 2.74 with the Astros going 9-5 SU in his 14 road starts. The 27-year-old is coming off an excellent outing when he limited the red-hot Rockies to five hits and one run in a 12-1 victory. However, this is a team that has given Cole trouble in 2018 as he has faced the Mariners twice since July 20 and lost both games while giving up 10 hits and six runs over 14 innings.
Astros still Reliable on the Road
Although their lead in the AL West Division has shrunk to one game, the Astros still own the second-best road record in MLB. Houston is 42-20 SU in 62 road games and has won seven of its last 10 away from Minute Maid Park. Houston’s recent struggles can be attributed to injuries as the Astros batting order has been decimated with Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer all needing stints on the DL and only Springer has returned. Even though key players are on the mend, the Astros are still the second-highest scoring road team in MLB at 5.44 runs per game.
When bettors then look at Houston’s recent history at Safeco Field, the Astros become an attractive option to back as the ’Stros are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games in Seattle, outscoring the Mariners 48-19 in those games. When you factor in that Felix Hernandez owns a career 4.27 ERA vs Houston and Seattle has lost five of its last six when he gets the call against the division rival, it’s hard to envision the defending World Series champs dropping this one.
Totals Bettors Should Eye The OVER
The total opened at 8 in this matchup and with Felix Hernandez on the mound, an OVER should be in the cards. The total has gone OVER in four of Seattle’s last five games with Hernandez on the mound with an average combined score of 10.1 runs per game. The Mariners have also been OVER machines lately with the OVER hitting in seven of their last eight games at home with an average combined score of 9.8 runs per game.
