The New York Yankees had a 7-0 winning streak at home snapped in a 4-3 loss to the Miami Marlins on Friday night. After bouncing back with an 11-4 win on Saturday, the Yankees will try to end their regular season on a high note with another win over the Marlins this Sunday in the Bronx.
- Date/Time: September 27, 3:05 p.m. ET
- Arena: Yankee Stadium
- TV Coverage: YES, FSFL
- Sportsbook Odds: New York -170 | O/U 9.5 runs (Line History)
- Marlins vs Yankees Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The betting odds on this game have remained fairly steady with the Yankees going off as -172 favorites at home and the Marlins paying +162 as road underdogs. Bettors have leaned towards the OVER in pushing the total from its opener at 9.5 runs up to 10 runs. Miami has shown good fight as an underdog this season with a 21-25 SU record in 46 instances as one.
Starting Pitchers Analysis
Jose Urena spent the first half of the regular season on the COVID-19 injury list. He has not pitched well in four starts since making his return, compiling a disappointing 6.00 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The Marlins are 0-3 SU across Urena’s last three starts.
Clarke Schmidt is the top pitching prospect in the Yankees' farm system, recording a 3.47 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with 102 strikeouts in 90.2 minor league innings pitched in 2019. Schmidt will be making his first career start on Sunday after getting a small taste of major-league action in two bullpen appearances earlier this month. He is expected to throw around 75-80 pitches.
Miami News & Notes
The Marlins clinching a playoff spot is one of the biggest surprises of the shortened 2020 season. Miami hasn’t made the postseason since it won the World Series in 2003 and hasn’t even recorded a winning record since 2009, most recently going 57-105 in 2019. The team has severely exceeded expectations with a 30-29 record this year and will get some valuable postseason experience for its young core.
What’s fascinating about Miami’s clinching a playoff spot is that the Marlins rank 19th in the league in runs per game with 4.37 and 22nd in team ERA with a 4.95. Despite having a 2-5 record over their last seven games and a far lower run differential on the season at -46 than the Philadelphia Phillies (0), New York Mets (-12), and Washington Nationals (-18), the Marlins managed to lock up the second-best record in the NL East with 30 wins.
New York News & Notes
The Yankees reeled off 10 straight wins earlier this month before hitting their current 2-5 slump over their last seven games. New York has one of the most opposite home and road splits in the league with a 21-8 record at home and a 12-18 record on the road. With the postseason scheduled to take place within neutral-site bubbles, the Yankees will need to improve on their road woes if they hope to make a World Series run.
New York has already clinched a playoff spot with a 33-26 record, but seeding in the American League is still to be determined as the Toronto Blue Jays could jump the Yankees in the AL East standings with a win and a New York loss on Sunday. Whichever team doesn’t finish second in the AL East will secure the lowest wild card seed in the AL playoff bracket.
Betting Pick: OVER 9.5 runs
New York shouldn’t have too much trouble hitting Jose Urena hard. And with Clarke Schmidt on a short leash, the Yankees will likely turn to their bullpen early but rest their top arms for the postseason. This all could add up to a high-scoring affair.
- Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 road games.
- New York is 5-3 SU in its last 8 games vs Miami.
- The OVER is 9-3 in New York’s last 12 games.
