The Milwaukee Brewers are getting absolutely no respect from oddsmakers even after winning 13 of their last 14 baseball games and sitting two games out of a World Series appearance. The Los Angeles Dodgers opened as -163 favorites to win Game 4 of the NLCS tonight at Dodger Stadium.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Brewers’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 5.86).
- The Dodgers lineup has two home runs vs Gio Gonzalez in 119 at-bats (both by Matt Kemp).
- The Dodgers are hitting .169 vs left-handed pitching in the playoffs.
Brewers vs Dodgers Game Center
Hill is an Intriguing Matchup for Brewers
With a chance to put a stranglehold on the NLCS, the Milwaukee Brewers are A-OK with seeing Rich Hill on the mound for LA. The Brewers have 23 hits and four home runs vs left-handers this postseason for a .291/.374/.494 slash line.
Against Hill specifically, the Milwaukee roster has a .293 career batting average and, ironically, Curtis Granderson has taken him deep twice, even though that’s a lefty-lefty matchup. This season, however, Hill made two starts vs Milwaukee and held his own, going six innings in both starts for a 1.50 ERA.
Notable there, though, is the timing. Milwaukee’s most inconsistent stretch of the season was right after the all-star break and Hill’s starts vs the Brewers were both within three weeks of the midsummer break.
Dodgers Relying on the Long Ball
LA has scored 29 runs this postseason with 16 of them coming via the Dodgers’ 10 home runs. They’ve not been so much for run manufacturing and it shows with their .215 batting average and .169 average vs left-handers in October.
Gio Gonzalez only pitched two innings in his first playoff start, so it remains to be seen how long Craig Counsell goes with him today. But Milwaukee has been getting it done by committee on the mound all year, so why not again today?
My Pick for Tonight
Milwaukee has played seven games in October with an average combined score of 5.85. Only one of those games had more than seven runs scored in it, so I’m back on UNDER 7.5 runs tonight. LA has an all-or-nothing offense while Milwaukee generally picks away to score runs.
If your preference is to bet a side instead of totals, Milwaukee is my pick for tonight. I think the pressure is squarely on the Dodgers tonight and the numbers outlined above make it tough to make an argument for them. At +140, I’m happy to bet the Brewers on the moneyline.
