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Pitchers’ Duel in the Making as Mets, Phillies Open Series

For the first time this season, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets begin a series against each other and the three-game set goes from Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia has been flirting with mediocrity over the last week, while New York has gone just 3-4 in its last seven games. Noah Syndergaard (NYM) and Aaron Nola (PHI) get the ball with the Phillies opening at -120, the Mets coming back at +100 and the total opening at 7.5 runs.

Mets vs Phillies Game Center

Standout Stats

  • After beginning the season 5-1, the Mets have been on a downward trend, going 4-5 SU and ATS in their last nine. A similar story can be written about the Phillies as they opened the season with a four-game winning streak but have gone 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
  • New York has a strong pitching rotation, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations in the early stages and the total has gone OVER in 11 of the Mets’ first 15 games with an average combined score of 12.07. Similarly, the total has gone OVER in nine of Philadelphia’s first 14 contests with an average combined score of 10.13.
  • Noah Syndergaard toes the slab for the fourth time this season, looking to get past some early-season jitters. The Texas native is sporting a 4.74 ERA through his first three outings, surrendering 10 runs on 13 hits, including two home runs, over 19 innings, but has only walked two batters. The Phillies lineup has a combined .232 batting average over 155 at-bats vs Syndergaard, but first baseman Rhys Hoskins is 4-for-9 with all four hits going for extra bases, including two homers.
  • The Phillies counter with ace Aaron Nola, who has been unlike himself in the early stages of the season. Nola looked strong in his debut, tossing six innings of one-run ball, but walked five batters in a 10-4 win over Atlanta. However, the Louisiana native has since been roughed up for 11 runs (10 earned) on 12 hits, including five homers, over 9.1 innings in two games vs Washington. The Mets lineup has 118 combined at-bats vs Nola and a .237 batting average.
  • The Mets and Phillies are nearly identical in batting average vs RHP this season as New York has hit .253 and Philadelphia .251. Philly is 8-4 against right-handed starters and New York is 7-3.

My Best Bet for Mets vs Phillies

OVER 7.5

Both pitchers haven’t been up to their regular standards in the early stages of the season and oddsmakers have made the total far too low. Additionally, the bats have been making some noise as New York has scored the fourth-most runs in the majors, while Philadelphia has scored the ninth-most. I anticipate the bats to do some damage as the starters haven’t hit their stride yet and the OVER will come through.