Mets Aim to End Phillies’ Unbeaten Run

The New York Mets have high hopes for the 2021 season – but their opener felt an awful lot like years past as they look to rebound Tuesday night in Philadelphia. New York (0-1 SU, 1-0 O/U) wasted a Jacob deGrom gem (sound familiar?) in a 5-3 setback to the Phillies (4-0 SU, 1-3 O/U) but is comfortably favored Tuesday as Marcus Stroman makes his 2021 debut.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The visiting Mets opened as -138 favorites, but the public has squeezed that number down into the -120 to -130 range (with -125 the most common number you’ll find). The Sportsbook total of 8.5 has risen to 9 at the majority of sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Mets right-hander Marcus Stroman (2019: 10-13, 3.22 ERA) will make his first major-league start since September 2019 and the team is optimistic after watching him dominate in the spring. The diminutive 29-year-old went 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 18.1 innings in the preseason, allowing just two home runs and walking only two batters over that stretch.

Phillies counterpart Chase Anderson (2020: 1-2, 7.22 ERA) will be looking to turn the page from the worst season of his professional career. The 33-year-old right-hander struggled mightily in his one and only season with the Toronto Blue Jays, surrendering a whopping 11 home runs in just 33.2 innings while failing to throw more than four innings in five of seven starts.

New York News & Notes

A fateful eighth inning was the Mets’ undoing in their season opener, with a Luis Guillorme throwing error leading to a five-run Phillies outburst and a 5-3 win for the hosts. New York boasted a below-average bullpen ERA of 4.60 during the shortened 2020 season and the Mets will need to improve in that regard if they hope to cash in on their +150 to +160 division title odds.

It was a muted debut for the Mets’ heavy hitters as well. Offseason acquisition Francisco Lindor – fresh off signing a 10-year contract extension worth $341 million – went 1-for-4 with a walk while slugger Pete Alonso posted the same stat line with a run scored. One positive: New York went 4-for-11 with runners in scoring position. The bad: it also left 10 men on base.

Philadelphia News & Notes

The Phillies know they caught a break against the Mets, but they’ll gladly take it as they improved to 4-0 for the fourth time in franchise history. Philadelphia overcame a shaky start from Matt Moore – who spent last season in Japan – and broke out against Trevor May and Aaron Loup to win for the third time this season without the benefit of at least one home run.

The real story so far for Philadelphia has been the bullpen, which was a complete disaster in 2020 but has been the team’s strongest suit early this season. A quartet of Phillies relievers limited the Mets to one run on six hits over the final 4.2 innings; that’s the first run allowed by the Philadelphia bullpen, which boasts a 0.69 ERA with an incredible 12.46 K/9 rate over 13 innings of work.

Betting Pick: Mets ML (-125)

Anderson’s dismal 2020 does little to put our mind at ease – and with the Phillies bullpen having to throw so many innings Monday, we have even less faith in the home team remaining unbeaten.