Braves DBacks

2024 MLB Player Totals Odds: Can Acuna Crush All His OVERs?

2024 Total Home Run Odds

Aaron Judge (NYY)O 44.5 (-110)U 44.5 (-110)
Matt Olson (ATL)O 42.5 (-110)U 42.5 (-110)
Pete Alonso (NYM)O 42.5 (-110)U 42.5 (-110)
Kyle Schwarber (PHI)O 39.5 (-110)U 39.5 (-110)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)O 38.5 (-110)U 38.5 (-110)
Yordan Alvarez (HOU)O 37.5 (-110)U 37.5 (-110)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)O 37.5 (-110)U 37.5 (-110)
Juan Soto (NYY)O 36.5 (-110)U 36.5 (-110)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)O 33.5 (-110)U 33.5 (-110)

MLB Total Home Run Odds: Will Judge crush OVER 44.5 homers in 2024?

Matt Olson led MLB with 54 homers last year (in 162 games), while Judge went yard 37 times in 106 games. If we extrapolate those numbers over a full season, the Yankees slugger was on pace for 57 home runs over 162 games. He's still the king.

Health always makes Judge bettors lose sleep, but I'm penciling him in as a lock for OVER 44.5 home runs in 2024.

MLB Total Home Run odds: Best bets

Shohei Ohtani UNDER 38.5 home runs (-110)

Call me a hater, but too much has changed for Ohtani to waltz into Dodger Stadium and slug away. While the two-time AL MVP homered 44 times last season, he'll enter 2024 with an elbow injury that won't allow him to pitch.

Elbows are important for hitting, too, chief, and I'm expecting a power dip for Ohtani.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 33.5 home runs (-110)

Guerrero's power numbers have trailed off over the last two seasons, but he's entering spring camp this year fully healthy and carrying far lighter expectations than in years past. Blue Jays fans are very frustrated with their former MVP finalist, and he's ready to prove to everyone he can climb back into that 40-homer range.

Consider me a believer.

Past MLB HR Leaders History

YearPlayer (HRs)
2023Matt Olson (54)
2022Aaron Judge (62)
2021Vlad Guerrero Jr/Sal Perez (48)
2020Luke Voit (22)*
2019Pete Alonso (53)
2018Khris Davis (48)
2017Giancarlo Stanton (59)
2016Mark Trumbo (47)
2015Chris Davis (47
2014Nelson Cruz (40)

*Shortened Season

2024 Total RBIs Odds

Aaron Judge (NYY)O 112.5 (-110)U 112.5 (-110)
Matt Olson (ATL)O 109.5 (-110)U 109.5 (-110)
Pete Alonso (NYM)O 108.5 (-110)U 108.5 (-110)
Yordan Alvarez (HOU)O 109.5 (-110)U 109.5 (-110)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)O 108.5 (-110)U 108.5 (-110)
Rafael Devers (BOS)O 101.5 (-110)U 101.5 (-110)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)O 99.5 (-110)U 99.5 (-110)
Bryce Harper (PHI)O 97.5 (-110)U 97.5 (-110)
Mookie Betts (LAD)O 96.5 (-110)U 96.5 (-110)

MLB Total RBIs Odds: In Judge We Trust?

I've laid out how much sense Judge makes for the homers bet. For RBIs, however, I'm not as bullish. The line is fair — Judge averages 111 RBIs per year in his career based on a 162-game pace — but I'd rather snipe value elsewhere.

MLB Total RBIs odds: Best bets

Bryce Harper UNDER 97.5 RBIs (-110)

RBIs have never been all that integral to Harper's success. Firstly, the 31-year-old has never played a full season, which gives credence to the UNDER, and he's only exceeded the 97.5 RBI mark three times in his career.

Yordan Alvarez UNDER 109.5 RBIs (-110)

Let's keep the UNDER train chugging. Alvarez needs to stay perfectly healthy to whiff 110 RBIs. The talent has never been an obstacle in the meat of that Astros order, but I'm skeptical, and I'll go UNDER.

Past MLB RBI Leaders History

YearPlayer (RBIs)
2023Matt Olson (139)
2022Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso (131)
2021Salvador Perez (121)
2020Jose Abreu (60)*
2019Anthony Rendon (126)
2018J.D. Martinez (130)
2017Giancarlo Stanton (132)
2016Nolan Arenado (133)
2015Nolan Arenado (133)
2014Nolan Arenado (130)

*Shortened Season

2024 Total Hits Odds

Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)O 179.5 (-110)U 179.5 (-110)
Luis Arraez (MIA)O 176.5 (-110)U 176.5 (-110)
Freddie Freeman (LAD)O 176.5 (-110)U 176.5 (-110)
Trea Turner (LAD)O 175.5 (-110)U 175.5 (-110)
Bo Bichette (TOR)O 175.5 (-110)U 175.5 (-110)
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)O 169.5 (-110)U 169.5 (-110)
Austin Riley (ATL)O 168.5 (-110)U 168.5 (-110)
Julio Rodriguez (SEA)O 168.5 (-110)U 168.5 (-110)

MLB Total Hits Odds: Acuna's Outlook for 2024

Acuna's 2023 performance will go down as one of the greatest seasons in MLB history. The 26-year-old slugged 41 homers, racked up 106 RBIs, and still stole 73 bases. Damn.

The 217-hit total might be hard to replicate but OVER 179.5 is certainly doable. On Opening Day, I'd lean toward betting the OVER, even with some anticipated regression.

MLB Total Hits odds: Best bets

Bo Bichette OVER 175.5 Hits (-110)

Hammer this prop. Bichette has buzzed near the 200-hit mark in three consecutive seasons, including a 175-hit performance in just 135 games last year. The Jays shortstop is sticking it better than ever before, and this line is way too low.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 168.5 Hits (-110)

This is another curious line. Julio went well OVER this total with 180 hits in 2023, a year he considered to be a sophomore slump. Well, if Rodriguez maintains an .800 OPS for 150 or more games in 2024, he's a lock for at least 170 hits.

Past MLB Hits Leaders History

YearPlayer (Hits)
2023Ronald Acuna Jr. (217)
2022Freddie Freeman (199)
2021Trea Turner (195)
2020Trea Turner (78)*
2019Whit Merrifield (206)
2018Whit Merrifield (192)
2017Charlie Blackmon (213)
2016Jose Altuve (216)
2015Dee Gordon (205)
2014Jose Altuve (225)

*Shortened Season

2024 Total Stolen Bases Odds

Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)O 56.5 (-110)U 56.5 (-110)
Esteury Ruiz (OAK)O 49.5 (-110)U 49.5 (-110)
Corbin Carroll (ARI)O 43.5 (-110)U 43.5 (-110)
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)O 42.5 (-110)U 42.5 (-110)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN)O 39.5 (-110)U 39.5 (-110)
Julio Rodriguez (SEA)O 32.5 (-110)U 32.5 (-110)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP)O 28.5 (-110)U 28.5 (-110)
Trea Turner (LAD)O 27.5 (-110)U 27.5 (-110)

MLB Total Stolen Bases Odds: How Many Bags Will Acuna Swipe?

What a world we're in, where Acuna's pre-season stolen base total sits as high as 56.5. That's modern MLB for you. Multiple rule changes saw the stolen base success rate jump 40%, and no one benefitted more than Acuna.

The reigning NL MVP should have no trouble crushing this OVER in 2024. 

MLB Total Stolen Bases odds: Best bets

Julio Rodriguez OVER 32.5 Stolen Bases (-110)

A full season of Julio will net at least 33 stolen bases. With fresh legs and a full head of steam heading into his third MLB season, Rodriguez is my best bet for stolen bases totals.

elly De La Cruz OVER 39.5 Stolen Bases (-110)

You thought we weren't going to delve into the De La Cruz totals market? Please, this is why we live for futures bets. Mutants like De La Cruz have a hard time staying healthy, but the Reds rookie stole 39 bases in 98 games last season. A full season makes him a lock for a much greater total.

Past MLB SB Leaders History

YearPlayer (SBs)
2023Ronald Acuna Jr. (73)
2022Jon Berti (41)
2021Whit Merrifield (41)
2020Adalberto Mondesi (24)*
2019Mallex Smith (46)
2018Whit Merrifield (45)
2017Dee Gordon (60)
2016Jonathan Villar (62)
2015Dee Gordon (58)
2014Dee Gordon (64)

*Shortened Season

2024 Total Strikeouts Odds

Spencer Strider (ATL)O 245.5 (-110)U 245.5 (-110)
Kevin Gausman (TOR)O 221.5 (-110)U 221.5 (-110)
Gerrit Cole (NYY)O 215.5 (-110)U 215.5 (-110)
Corbin Burnes (BAL)O 205.5 (-110)U 205.5 (-110)
Pablo Lopez (MIN)O 205.5 (-110)U 205.5 (-110)
Dylan Cease (CHW)O 198.5 (-110)U 198.5 (-110)
Freddy Peralta (MIL)O 195.5 (-110)U 195.5 (-110)
Zac Gallen (ARI)O 194.5 (-110)U 194.5 (-110)

MLB Total Strikeouts Odds: Strider Stands Alone

Voila, another comical total, and yet Strider deserves it. The Braves starter whiffed a major-league-best 281 batters last season in just 186.2 innings. Barring a catastrophic injury, Strider will waltz to another 250+ strikeout season in 2024, as there's nothing to suggest his K/9 numbers will tumble.

MLB Total Strikeouts odds: Best bets

Gerrit Cole OVER 205.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Cole's K/9 numbers took a healthy dip in 2023, but, oddly enough, the righty finally secured his first career Cy Young a year ago. The Yankees ace is an established workhorse coming off two consecutive seasons of 200+ innings, so, even at a reduced strikeout rate, this bet will hit.

Corbin Burnes UNDER 205.5 Strikeouts (-110)

I'm excited to watch Burnes in an Orioles uniform, but the right-hander's transition to the AL East, baseball's toughest division, is bound to bring on new challenges. Burnes' strikeout numbers took a dive in 2023, and I'll bet either poor health or a bumpy start to the 2024 season send him UNDER 205.5 strikeouts.

Past MLB Strikeout Leaders History

YearPlayer (Ks)
2023Spencer Strider (281)
2022Corbin Burnes (238)
2021Zack Wheeler (247)
2020Jacob deGrom (104)*
2019Jacob deGrom (255)
2018Max Scherzer (300)
2017Max Scherzer (268)
2016Max Scherzer (284)
2015Clayton Kershaw (301)
2014Johnny Cueto/Stephen Strasburg (242)

*Shortened Season

How To Bet MLB Regular Season Totals Odds

When you visit your sportsbook of choice, you’ll find odds for MLB futures like World Series odds and division pennants. Before Opening Day, however, you can bet individual MLB player totals (hits, RBI, homers, and more). Each market will be tailored for each specific player, and then it'll be up to you to bet whether a player's total will go OVER or UNDER.

You would see odds and totals listed like this Spencer Strider strikeout total, for example:

Spencer Strider (ATL)O 245.5 (-110)U 245.5 (-110)

Unlike a moneyline bet, where there would be a clear favorite and underdog, this market revolves around whether a player's season-long total will go OVER or UNDER the aforementioned total. Strider owns the highest strikeout total in MLB, but other players will have their odds and totals adjusted accordingly.

In this example, if you were to bet $100 on Strider's strikeouts to go OVER 245.5 season, and he struck out 250 batters, you'd win $190.91 – your original $100 is returned, along with your winnings of $90.91

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