MLB 2024 Regular Season Stat Leader Odds

2024 MLB Regular Season Stat Leader Odds: Judge Clear HR Leader Fav

2024 Home Run Leader Odds

Aaron Judge+380
Matt Olson+750
Kyle Schwarber+850
Pete Alonso+850
Shohei Ohtani+1000
Yordan Alvarez+1000
Juan Soto+1700
Ronald Acuna Jr.+1900

When healthy, Aaron Judge is the most feared power hitter in baseball. A season after posting an AL-record 62 homers, the Bronx Bomber banged 37 dingers in 106 games in 2023. He finished well off MLB's lead in the statistic, but his 55-homer pace would've put him right up there with the leaders had he played 160 games. Now, Judge has Juan Soto protecting him in the Yankees lineup, too.

Best Value Pick: Pete Alonso, Mets

Pete Alonso has played four full seasons at the MLB level. He's posted no fewer than 37 HR in any of those campaigns, broken 40 three times, and averaged 46.5 during the stretch. He's led baseball in HR once already, and now the Polar Bear enters a contract year looking to secure the bag. I'm expecting plenty of power from Alonso.

Past MLB HR Leaders History

YearPlayer (HRs)
2023Matt Olson (54)
2022Aaron Judge (62)
2021Vlad Guerrero Jr/Sal Perez (48)
2020Luke Voit (22)*
2019Pete Alonso (53)
2018Khris Davis (48)
2017Giancarlo Stanton (59)
2016Mark Trumbo (47)
2015Chris Davis (47
2014Nelson Cruz (40)

*Shortened Season

2024 Strikeout Leader Odds

Spencer Strider+180
Kevin Gausman+750
Gerrit Cole+1200
Tyler Glasnow+1800
Kodai Senga+2000
Pablo Lopez+2000
Freddy Peralta+2500
Corbin Burnes+2500

Spencer Strider is a strikeout god. He averaged 1.7 more strikeouts per nine innings than any other pitcher in baseball last year and led this total Ks category by 44 punch-outs. The only thing that could stop the Braves ace from not leading baseball in strikeouts again in 2024 is an injury.

Best Value Pick: Freddy Peralta, Brewers

The Brewers let Peralta pitch deeper into games than ever before last year, averaging nearly 5.5 innings per start. The result was a career-high in strikeouts (210) and innings pitched (165). With Corbin Burnes out of town, Peralta may be thrust into an ace role and if that means 20-plus more innings for the righty, he could easily lead the league in strikeouts. It'll be hard for anyone to surpass Strider, but Freddy at least has a path.

Past MLB Strikeout Leaders History

YearPlayer (Ks)
2023Spencer Strider (281)
2022Corbin Burnes (238)
2021Zack Wheeler (247)
2020Jacob deGrom (104)*
2019Jacob deGrom (255)
2018Max Scherzer (300)
2017Max Scherzer (268)
2016Max Scherzer (284)
2015Clayton Kershaw (301)
2014Johnny Cueto/Stephen Strasburg (242)

*Shortened Season

2024 stolen Base Leader Odds

Ronald Acuna Jr.+160
Esteury Ruiz+300
Corbin Carroll+550
Elly De La Cruz+750
CJ Abrams+1100
Bobby Witt Jr.+1100
Julio Rodriguez+2300
Trea Turner+3900

Acuna led baseball in runs, hits, OPS, AND stolen bases last year. He just does it all. The Braves leadoff man attempted 87 swiped bags and was successful on a league-leading 73. Acuna ended up running away (literallY) with this leaderboard last year, and is heavily favored to do so again in 2024.

Best Value Pick: Esteury Ruiz, Athletics

There was one guy who had a chance at catching Acuna last year, and it was Ruiz. The Athletics outfielder missed 30 games due to injury last year and ended up falling six stolen bases short of Acuna. With a full season of play, he probably would've led the category.

The issue is if Ruiz did enough on defense and with his bat last year to warrant that 160-game run in 2024. He graded out surprisingly poor in the field and posted just a .654 OPS at the plate. If he can take a slight jump as an overall player, I expect Ruiz will have the opportunity to steal Acuna's crown on the base paths.

Past MLB SB Leaders History

YearPlayer (SBs)
2023Ronald Acuna Jr. (73)
2022Jon Berti (41)
2021Whit Merrifield (41)
2020Adalberto Mondesi (24)*
2019Mallex Smith (46)
2018Whit Merrifield (45)
2017Dee Gordon (60)
2016Jonathan Villar (62)
2015Dee Gordon (58)
2014Dee Gordon (64)

*Shortened Season

2024 Saves Leader Odds

Josh Hader+550
Emmanuel Clase+600
Camilo Doval+800
Edwin Diaz+800
David Bednar+1300
Paul Sewald+1300
Clay Holmes+1300
Devin Williams+1400

Josh Hader has changed teams and now he's favored to lead baseball in saves. Despite long being an elite reliever, the Astros' new closer has actually never led MLB in saves. He did lead the NL back in the shortened 2020 season with 13 saves, but he's covered close to the low-30s mark the last few years.

It does sound like Hader will be a full-time closer for this great Astros team, so maybe he'll have a shot to break 40 in 2024.

Best Value Pick: Jordan Romano, Blue Jays

Jordan Romano has been a lock-down closer for the last three seasons. He's posted back-to-back 36-save seasons despite never pitching more than 64 frames in a year. If Romano can stay healthy for a full season, I think the Jays are going to win enough games (close games, in particular) to give him a shot at 40+ saves. 

At +2300 odds, Romano's the best value on this board.

Past MLB Saves Leaders History

YearPlayer (Svs)
2023Emmanuel Clase (44)
2022Emmanuel Clase (42)
2021Mark Melancon (39)
2020Brad Hand (16)*
2019Kirby Yates (41)
2018Edwin Diaz (57)
2017Alex Colome (47)
2016Jeurys Familia (51)
2015Mark Melancon (51)
2014Fernando Rodney (48)

*Shortened Season

2024 RBI Leader Odds

Yordan Alvarez+900
Aaron Judge+950
Matt Olson+1000
Shohei Ohtani+1000
Juan Soto+1200
Pete Alonso+1200
Austin Riley+1300
Freddie Freeman+2000

Yordan Alvarez hits third in the Astros lineup, sliding in behind Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. A masher like Yordan batting behind two on-base kings like that is a great recipe for runners batted in.

Counting stats like RBI are kind of hard to predict, because there's a lot out of the individual hitter's control, but Yordan has posted basically 100 RBI in each of the last three seasons, despite never playing more than 145 games. If he can suit up for a full season, he's nearly a lock to finish near the top of the RBI leaderboard.

Best Value Pick: Matt Olson, braves

Getting the best power hitter from the best lineup in baseball at +1000 is pretty good value in RBI leader odds. Olson has the pleasure of hitting cleanup in the Braves' batting order, and it resulted in an absurd 139 RBI last season. He's had at least 100 RBI in each of the last three seasons, and if he's healthy Olson should easily surpass that mark again in 2024.

He's also as good of a lock to play 162 games as anyone else in this market (having done so the last two seasons), which is a key to racking up counting stats like this.

Past MLB RBI Leaders History

YearPlayer (RBIs)
2023Matt Olson (139)
2022Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso (131)
2021Salvador Perez (121)
2020Jose Abreu (60)*
2019Anthony Rendon (126)
2018J.D. Martinez (130)
2017Giancarlo Stanton (132)
2016Nolan Arenado (133)
2015Nolan Arenado (133)
2014Nolan Arenado (130)

*Shortened Season

2024 Hits Leader Odds

Ronald Acuna Jr.+750
Luis Arraez+800
Freddie Freeman+1000
Bo Bichette+1200
Trea Turner+1800
Bobby Witt Jr.+1800
Corey Seager+1800
Kyle Tucker+2100

Ronald Acuna Jr. snuck by Luis Arraez last season to lead baseball in hits, finishing the season with a whooping 217 knocks. As the leadoff man in the dynamic Braves lineup, Acuna is guaranteed to get plenty of plate appearances. And, considering he's one of the best contact hitters in baseball, that's an easy recipe to lead MLB in hits.

Best Value Pick: Bo Bichette, Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' shortstop was on pace to lead the American League in hits for a third straight season before he suffered a pair of injuries in the final month of the 2023 season. He's posted over 175 hits in the past three years and is still only entering his age 26 season. If Bichette can take a small leap as he enters his prime, he's more than capable of passing the 200 hits mark and leading MLB in the category.

Past MLB Hits Leaders History

YearPlayer (Hits)
2023Ronald Acuna Jr. (217)
2022Freddie Freeman (199)
2021Trea Turner (195)
2020Trea Turner (78)*
2019Whit Merrifield (206)
2018Whit Merrifield (192)
2017Charlie Blackmon (213)
2016Jose Altuve (216)
2015Dee Gordon (205)
2014Jose Altuve (225)

*Shortened Season

2024 Doubles Leader Odds

Freddie Freeman+450
Jose Ramirez+750
Rafael Devers+1000
Mookie Betts+1300
Michael Harris+1400
Jarren Duran+1500
Kyle Tucker+1500
Ronald Acuna Jr. +1900

Freddie Freeman is a doubles god. He's led baseball in the category four times in his career (including three of the last four seasons) including a whooping 59 in 2023. All Freddie does is slap balls into the gap and jog into second. He's the obvious favorite to lead the league in doubles again in 2024, with only an injury really standing in his way.

Best Value Pick: Rafael Devers, Red Sox

If there's one guy who I think can surpass Freeman, it's big Rafa in Boston. He's put up pretty consistent double numbers throughout his career, leading the AL in 2019 and posting over 30 in each of the last three seasons. The key here is Fenway Park, which grades out as baseball's best doubles home park per Savant Park Factors. With a slappy bat and a home field on his side, Devers could catch Freeman here.

Past MLB Doubles Leaders History

YearPlayer (2Bs)
2023Freddie Freeman (59)
2022Freddie Freeman (47)
2021Four-Way Tie (42)
2020Freddie Freeman (23)*
2019Rafael Devers (54)
2018Alex Bregman (51)
2017Jose Ramirez (56)
2016David Ortiz (48)
2015Michael Brantley (45)
2014Jonathan Lucroy (53)

*Shortened Season

2024 Triples Leader Odds

Corbin Carroll+400
Bobby Witt Jr.+600
Elly De La Cruz+1100
TJ Friedl+1100
Gunnar Henderson+1200
Steven Kwan+1400
Shohei Ohtani+1800
Alek Thomas+2000

Corbin Carroll was built to hit triples. The speedy young DBacks outfielder led the National League with 10 three-baggers last year, and It's easy to see why books expect a few more in 2024. He's got the perfect foot speed and line-drive swing needed to rack up these hits.

It also helps Carroll that he plays in a home park (Arizona's Chase Field) that grades out 54% above average for triple production.

Best Value Pick: Elly De La Cruz, Reds

Elly De La Cruz came three triples shy of tying Carroll for the NL lead last year despite playing just 98 games. If De La Cruz can get to 550+ plate appearances, he should easily reach double-digit triples.

One thing working against De La Cruz is that Great American Ball Park is well below average for triples. But, it didn't seem to stop him last year.

Past MLB Triples Leaders History

YearPlayer (3Bs)
2023Bobby Witt Jr. (11)
2022Amed Rosario (9)
2021Shohei Ohtani, David Peralta (8)
2020Kyle Tucker (6)*
2019Four-Way Tie (10)
2018Ketel Marte (12)
2017Charlie Blackmon (14)
2016Three-Way Tie (11)
2015Eddie Rosario (15)
2014Dee Gordon (12)

*Shortened Season

How To Bet Regular Season Stat Leader Odds

When you visit your sportsbook of choice, you’ll find odds for MLB futures like World Series odds and division pennants. But, in the offseason you'll also find MLB regular season stat leader odds for all the major counting categories — hits, RBI, homers, and more. Betting on which player will lead these categories is just like any other futures wager, which means you’re betting on markets that will finalize in time. 

You would see odds listed like this, for home run leader as an example:

  • Aaron Judge +375
  • Shohei Ohtani +450
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1200
  • Matt Olson +1200
  • Giancarlo Stanton +1500

Unlike a moneyline bet, where there would be a clear favorite and underdog, the player with the lowest odds to lead in homers is the closest thing to a fave. In this case, it’s Aaron Judge at +350. The team with the highest odds would be the closest thing to a underdog. Here, it’s Giancarlo Stanton at +1500.

If you were to bet $100 on Stanton at the beginning of the season and he led baseball in homers, you’d get a payout of $1,600 – your original $100 is returned, along with your winnings of $1,500. On the other hand, the same bet amount on Judge would give you a payout of $475 – you get your $100 back, plus your loot of $375. The longer the odds, the better the payout.

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