The Rockies haven’t won much lately.
They haven’t made the playoffs since 2018, have never won the NL West, and haven’t posted over 74 wins in any of their past four seasons.
But, they’ve won at home. Despite being one of baseball’s worst teams, Colorado was 16 games over .500 at Coors Field in 2021 and 2022. That home success hasn’t helped them out much, as the Rockies still haven’t sniffed the MLB postseason, but it’s been a place for profit for Colorado bettors.
Below, we break down that surprise Rockies home success and why it’s more than a lucky streak:
Rockies Big Winners At Coors Field
|Year||Home Record||Home Moneyline Profits|
|TOTAL||191-164||+1985.97 (+19.9 units)|
*Shortened 60-game season
If you bet on every Rockies home game on the moneyline for the past five seasons, you would be up almost 20 units. The only season in the last five years in which they haven’t been over .500 and profitable at Coors Field was the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.
In fact, in three of the last five years, the Rockies have been among the top five most profitable teams for home games. And, in those five years combined, they’ve been the second-best home team in MLB.
Why Do The Rockies Win At Home?
If you’re a baseball fan, you’ve probably heard of the “Coors Field effect” before. But most people think the impact of the high altitude in Colorado is making baseballs fly further, leading to more home runs and extra-base hits and making Coors a launching ground for all hitters.
That may be true, but the impact goes a little further, including making breaking pitches break less. For example, a FanGraphs study in 2019 found that curveballs have 2.32 inches less vertical break at Coors Field than in other parks.
Austin Gomber had his best start of the season by Stuff+ yesterday (88), of course away from home. To me, the biggest source of the Coors Field Effect is actually what the altitude does to pitch movement. See if you can spot the away games for German Marquez in his Stuff+: pic.twitter.com/07OTKiyN5R— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) May 25, 2021
I’m no scientist, so I’m not going to get into the details of how the thinner air messes up Adam Ottavino’s slider, but the big takeaway is that batters are seeing wildly different pitch movement at other parks compared to Coors. That helps the Rockies, because when visiting batters come to town, there’s an adjustment, one that the Colorado players don’t have to make — or at least are used to making.
While other players only come into Coors for a few road trips a year, the Rockies hitters are there for 81 games, and are likely better at adjusting to the changing pitch movements. So, when your hitters have that kind of advantage, it’s no surprise the Rockies have had a +29 run differential at home despite a -224 mark overall the last two seasons.
Could Coors Be Even Kinder In 2023?
With a five-season track record of some Rockies home success, you’d have to think the books would adjust, right? Well, even if they do, we may still have an edge with the Rockies in 2023 because their home success should be even more pronounced this season.
Major League Baseball changed up the schedule structure this year, making every team play each other for the first time (with every team playing at each home park at least once every two years). That means a bunch of teams that wouldn’t normally be traveling to Colorado will be visiting for the first time in a while and getting their rare taste of the Coors Field effect.
For example, the Yankees haven’t traveled to Coors since 2016, meaning Yankees hitters like Oswaldo Cabrera, Anthony Volpe and even Aaron Judge will be hitting in the Rockies’ home park for the first time in a big league game. And with one quick series in and out of Coors, the New York batters probably won’t have time to properly adjust to the Coors effect.
If you want to get in on the action, you can read our How To Bet On Baseball guide if you’re new to baseball betting or need a refresher, and make sure to keep track of the latest MLB World Series odds with MLB Futures.