Twins vs Nationals SGP

MLB Same-Game Parlay May 21: Twins vs Nationals (+569)

For today's MLB same-game parlay, I'm switching things up. For the longest time, we've faded Patrick Corbin. But, he's earned a chance to get back into our good graces.

Here's my MLB same-game parlay for today's Nats vs Twins showdown, where I analyze three parlay legs:

Twins vs Nationals Same-Game Parlay: May 21st

The Game: Twins vs Nationals - 6:45 p.m. ET

Nationals moneyline +154
Total under 8.5 runs-105
Patrick Corbin over 3.5 strikeouts-104

Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Nationals ML

Normally we're fading Corbin, but today I've got faith. Corbin has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings, with the Nationals winning three of those five contests, too. For a guy that's had like a six ERA over the last three seasons, he's actually been a profitable pitcher, with +1.34 units in his starts.

The Twins have also been awful on offense lately, posting a .211 average and .619 OPS in the last 15 days. That OPS is good for the second-worst in baseball.

Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Under 8.5 Runs

The Twins offense has been brutal lately, scoring just 54 runs in the last 14 games (3.85 per game). But, the Nationals offense hasn't been much better. Washington has scored 46 runs in the last 12 games (3.83 per game). With solid starters like Joe Ryan and Corbin on the mound, I don't think these offenses are gonna get going in tonight's Twin vs Nationals game. The under is a key part of this same-game parlay, and probably my most confident pick of the Nats vs Twins matchup.

Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Corbin Over 3.5 Ks

On top of Corbin just overall pitching well lately (as mentioned above), he's also got a historical edge against current Twins hitters. In 66 at-bats against Corbin, current Minnesota hitters have a .227 average and .595 OPS. That's just four extra-base hits in 66 ABs.

This is also a Twins lineup that's been struck out 35 times by opposing starting pitchers in the last five games (averaging seven per outing). Corbin may not have seven strikeouts in him today, but he's certainly got more than 3.5.

Take this for what you will, but Corbin is also on a weird alternating trend of over/under 3.5 Ks. He's hit the over on this strikeout mark every other game, all season (under, over, under, over, under, over, under, over, under). After missing out on the O3.5Ks last outing, he's due for an over tonight, by my count!

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