Pablo Lopez's Minnesota Twins featured in our Twins vs Pirates picks and odds

MLB Same-Game Parlay May 15: Twins vs Yankees (+260)

Order up! We've got another MLB same-game parlay on deck for this lovely Wednesday, May 15.

Today, we're attacking the Yankees vs Twins matchup set with first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET.

Here's my MLB same-game parlay for this AL showdown, where I break down three parlay legs:

Yankees vs Twins Same-Game Parlay: May 15

The Game: Yankees vs Twins - 7:40 p.m. ET

Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+115
Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Twins ML-120

Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Lopez OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Listen, I know it's not sound enough betting advice to look at past results. Any shmuck can read off an OVER/UNDER record and make guesses accordingly. While I am a shmuck in most areas of my life, let me dive deeper.

The baseline is true, though. Lopez has been excellent on this prop, cashing the OVER 6.5 Ks in six of eight starts. This is all very real, but it's not the reason I'm backing him Monday.

The right-hander's 3.89 ERA is very pedestrian. However, a gander at his Baseball Savant page suggests his strikeout stuff is much sharper this year. Lopez's 31.3% whiff rate is a career-high, putting him in baseball's 84th percentile. It's not dumb luck; he's getting more whiffs than ever before.

Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Larnach OVER 0.5 Hits (-200)

I wasn't confident enough to push Larnach to OVER 1.5 total bases — though I'd recommend that at +115 odds as a solo bet — because he's been a little cold of late.

But here's where the tune changes. Larnach is 1-for-1 lifetime vs Yankees starter Marcus Stroman. His one hit? A three-run homer. Now that's not enough on its own, but Stroman has been extremely vulnerable to lefties this year, especially power lefties like Larnach.

In 2024, left-handed hitters are slashing .290/.405/.613 vs Stroman with five homers in eight games. Those are wild numbers, evidenced by the slash plus the pristine 12:13 BB:K ratio. Bet on a Larnach hit.

Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Twins ML (-120)

I wish we could snipe some underdog value on Twins ML, but the books are too smart for that. Maybe they've read Stroman's splits page, too. At the end of the day, that's what's most important for this bet.

Minny can stack lefties when they need to expose a matchup. They did it on the weekend vs Alek Manoah, and they'll do it v Stroman Monday. Expect all the boys to get reps: Carlos Santana, Larnach, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, and Edouard Julien. 

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