With days left before the 2022 MLB trade deadline, buyers and sellers are clearly known.
Bookmakers at Sportsbook and Sportsbook have posted MLB trade deadline odds and player movement lines, and we can start to make MLB trade deadline predictions. The deadline is on August 2 at 6 p.m. ET, and there’s no better time to lock in your bets.
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Some of the top names at this year’s deadline include pitchers Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo. But, there’s no bigger name than Nationals superstar Juan Soto, who could be on the move in the coming days.
Sportsbook
MLB Trade Deadline Odds: Juan Soto
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | +200 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +250 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +325 |
| New York Mets | +500 |
| New York Yankees | +650 |
| San Francisco Giants | +1000 |
| Seattle Mariners | +1000 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +1000 |
Odds as of July 28 at Sportsbook
The big fish at this year’s MLB trade deadline is Juan Soto, but he may or may not be moved. The above odds are on the teams he could land with, if the Nationals choose to move their superstar outfielder.
The best betting value for a Soto trade destination comes out west, but not with the favored Padres. The Dodgers have made these big moves before, signing Freddie Freeman, trading for Mookie Betts, and acquiring Trea Turner and Max Scherzer last deadline. They still have the top prospects and young roster players to make a Soto move happen, and they just might do it.
The Pick: Dodgers +325
Sportsbook
Frankie Montas Trade Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | -145 |
| New York Mets | +350 |
| Minnesota Twins | +400 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +400 |
| Boston Red Sox | +500 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +900 |
Odds as of July 28 at Sportsbook
With 1.5 seasons of control remaining, the A’s could hold on to their ace for the rest of the season, in theory, but it’s not likely. So, looking at the top pitching-needy teams, the Cardinals and Twins stick out as top destinations for Montas. With Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz both out with big injuries, the Cards have a major need in the rotation and are right around the edge of the playoffs in the NL, the perfect spot to justify making this big move.
The Pick: Twins +400, Cardinals +400
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J.D Martinez Trade Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | -165 |
| New York Mets | +200 |
| Houston Astros | +550 |
| Los Angeles Angels | +600 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +550 |
Odds as of July 28 at Sportsbook
The Red Sox are in a weird spot, just a few games out of the playoffs, but everything seems to be collapsing around them. With Chris Sale done for the year and some huge holes on the roster, Boston should probably sell.
The most likely guy to move if Boston chooses to retool is Martinez, but the landing spot is a little less clear. The Mets are probably the best team with a need at the DH position, but they also just traded for Daniel Vogelbach. Are they still looking for an upgrade there?
The Pick: Mets +200
Sportsbook
Joey Gallo Trade Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -175 |
| San Diego Padres | +275 |
| Texas Rangers | +450 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +600 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +1000 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +1000 |
Odds as of July 28 at Sportsbook
With Andrew Benintendi in the mix, it seems pretty clear that Joey Gallo’s days in New York are numbered. There have been recent reports that the Padres are interested in adding the big lefty bat, so we’re going to take those hints and hammer the bet. Betting on Gallo’s return to Texas would be fun, but we’re going to roll with the Padres instead.
The Pick: Padres +275
Nathan Eovaldi Trade Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | -200 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +750 |
| New York Mets | +350 |
| Minnesota Twins | +400 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +400 |
Odds as of July 28 at Sportsbook
The Eovaldi market is going to be pretty similar to that of Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas, if he’s traded. I think, though, that he’s going to stay in Boston alongside Xander Bogaerts. Even though it’s not great value at -200, I think it’s the safest bet.
The Pick: Red Sox -200
How To Read Trade Deadline Odds
If you have any experience with futures betting, reading MLB trade deadline odds shouldn’t be too challenging. Even for new bettors, it isn’t that tough. Let’s take a look at the following example of Mike Trout trade odds:
- Los Angeles Angels -200
- New York Yankees +180
- Boston Red Sox +2500
In this example, there are -200 odds (a heavy favorite) that Mike Trout will not be traded, and will end up on his current team, the Los Angeles Angels. At these -200 odds, you must bet $200 in order to profit $100 on a correct bet. If you bet that Trout will be swapped to the Yankees at +180, there is a chance for greater profit, as an underdog choice. These +180 odds mean a $100 bet would pay out a $180 profit. In the case of Boston’s +2500 odds, a $100 bet would pay $2,500 as a huge long shot. Choosing your bets is all about finding value, not just always betting on the favorite or the biggest underdog.
