It’s the final race of the NASCAR Cup Championship Round of 16. In the drop zone heading into the Bass Pro Shops Night Race are Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon, Chase Briscoe and Kevin Harvick. If all four can’t put up enough points in this weekend’s race their challenge for a Cup Championship will end this weekend.
Sportsbook
When looking at sportsbook Sportsbook's oddsboard, Kyle Busch could stand a real shot of jumping out of the drop zone. Busch, and Chase Elliott, have the second-best odds to win this weekend’s race at +750. In terms of drivers in the drop zone, Harvick has the next best odds to win at +900.
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Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds: Bristol Motor Speedway
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +700 |
| Chase Elliott | +750 |
| Kyle Busch | +750 |
| Kyle Larson | +800 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| Kevin Harvick | +900 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1400 |
| Ross Chastain | +1400 |
| William Byron | +1400 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1600 |
| Alex Bowman | +2500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2500 |
| Erik Jones | +3300 |
| Chase Briscoe | +4000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +4000 |
| Austin Cindric | +6600 |
| Austin Dillon | +6600 |
Odds as of September 15 at Sportsbook
Bass Pro Shops Night Race: Why Is Denny Hamlin The Favorite?
The Joe Gibbs driver won at Bristol as recently as 2019 after qualifying for the pole position. He just never gave it up the lead. The last time out at Bristol, a year ago on September 18, 2021, Hamlin held the second fastest qualifying time, lead for 65 laps, but finished ninth.
When looking at his average finish at the Bristol Motor Speedway, Hamiln holds a respectable 10.6 average finish. Which ranks him fifth for all drivers since February 2019. He’s also one of only five drivers to win Bristol in that span.
But none of that alone necessarily makes Hamlin the favorite. It doesn’t hurt his chances of course. It's clear he drives well here, not just historically but recently at the Bristol Motor Speedway.
Hamlin has been the runner-up in the last two races on the calendar. I think that his recent record as well as his record on this track are why oddsmakers have Hamlin as the favorite for the final race of NASCAR’s Cup Championship Round of 16.
Denny Hamlin isn't only the favorite for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, but he also holds the second-best odds to win the NASCAR Cup Championship at +500.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Best Bets
Kyle Busch (+750)
Kyle Busch has to have a good race this weekend. If he doesn't, his attempt to win a third NASCAR Cup Championship will end abruptly. It would also be his final race for Joe Gibbs Racing after Busch declared he’d be taking his talents to Richard Childress Racing for the 2023 season.
Of the 16 drivers currently competing for the NASCAR cup, none has a better average finish at Bristol than Kyle Busch’s 6.4 since February 2019. The oddsmakers see Bristol as a chance for Busch to put up big points by winning and they’re absolutely right to think so.
Joey Logano (+1400)
Logano’s 12.4 average finish is the sixth-best for all active drivers since February 2019. That’s a little low, I know. But Logano has done well here and he’s got some real momentum behind him. I know finishing 17th in his last race isn’t what some would consider momentum, but over Logano’s last seven races he’s finished outside of the top six twice.
The number 22 car has been running well through qualification lately with Logano’s Ford qualifying 3rd, 1st, and then 2nd in the last three races. His car is running well and he's typically done well in Tennessee. A win is a real possibility.
Kyle Larson (+800)
His odds aren't much better than Kyle Busch or Chase Elliott's for that fact. But only Busch has a better average finish at Bristol than Larson's 8.7 since February 2019. Larson was the last Sportsbook on this track back in September of 2021.
Larson was in and out of the lead the entire race in 2021. He had the lead taken from him six times before regaining it on lap 497 from Kevin Harvick. That last lead change in Larson's favor was a bit fortunate. He took advantage of a dustup between Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick to take the lead, but that's his just reward for racing hard and putting himself in a position to take advantage.
At +800 a $100 bet would return $800 if Larson crosses the finish line first. Larson is the most recent Sportsbook here and has shown he knows how to get a solid result here over his career. At +800 he isn't exactly a longshot, but he certainly represents good value.
