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Daytona 500 Odds & Predictions: Hamlin Favored to Win Great American Race

Denny Hamlin is the favorite in the 2021 Daytona 500 odds

The 2021 NASCAR season is quickly approaching with the 63rd running of the Daytona 500 scheduled for Sunday, February 14. Denny Hamlin has won the last two Great American Races and three of the last five, so rightfully so, No. 11 is at the point in the Daytona 500 odds at +600.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released its Daytona 500 odds with Hamlin favored at +600. He is followed closely by last year’s points champion, Chase Elliott, at +1000, Aric Almirola at +1000, Joey Logano at +1000 and Ryan Blaney at +1000 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

The cars took to the track Wednesday night with Alex Bowman grabbing the pole position and William Byron lining up on the outside of him. Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon grabbed checkered flags in the two Bluegreen Vacations Duel races and thus will line up right behind Bowman and Byron on the second row. A betting note for pole-sitter Alex Bowman (+2200): he had a vibration in the car that the team is trying to diagnose and will start from the rear of the field now.

Unfamiliar with betting on NASCAR? Be sure to check out our handy NASCAR betting guide to help you get in on the racing action.

Daytona 500 Odds

Odds to Win the 2021 Daytona 500
DriverOdds
Denny Hamlin+600
Chase Elliott+1000
Aric Almirola+1000
Joey Logano+1000
Ryan Blaney+1000
Brad Keselowski+1100
Kyle Busch+1100
Kevin Harvick+1400
Darrell Wallace Jr.+1500
Martin Truex Jr. +1500
Kyle Larson+1600
William Byron+1700
Alex Bowman+2200
Kurt Busch+2200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+2200
Austin Dillon+2500
Ryan Newman+2800
Ross Chastain+2900
Christopher Bell+3000
Matt DiBenedetto+3000
Cole Custer+4400
Tyler Reddick+4400
Chase Briscoe+5500
Chris Buescher+5500
Daniel Suarez+6600
Erik Jones+6600
Jamie McMurray+6600
Michael McDowell+6600
Ryan Preece+8000
Cody Ware+10000
Corey LaJoie+10000
David Ragan+10000
Quin Houff+17500
Anthony Alfredo+20000
Kaz Grala+20000
Derrike Cope+25000
BJ McLeod+50000
Joey Gase+50000
Josh Bilicki+50000

Odds as of February 14 courtesy of Bovada

Why is Hamlin the Favorite in Daytona 500 Odds?

As mentioned off the top, Hamlin has won back-to-back Daytona 500s and three of the last five while also having a third-place finish over that span. In fact, over the last 14 runnings at Daytona, including the summer race, he has finished sixth or better nine times, including seven podium finishes. In 30 career starts there, he has led at least one lap in 22 of them.

Last season, Denny finished with the second-most wins in the series at seven (two behind Kevin Harvick), had the second-most top-five finishes (18) and finished fourth in the final playoff standings. Although the Daytona 500 can be a crazy race with typically one major accident – “the big one” – that wipes out half the field, Hamlin’s consistency definitely warrants him being the betting favorite.

Daytona 500 Betting Picks

Typically for a race, I provide my two favorite picks and a sleeper. However, for the Daytona 500 with longer odds, I will give three picks and a long-shot prediction as well.

Denny Hamlin +600: In most races, the betting favorite is +300 or so. With Hamlin’s tremendous success in the Great American Race recently, getting 6/1 odds is far too inviting not to play him.

William Byron +1700: Well, if you’re going to back last year’s Daytona 500 winner, why not also back the man who drove to victory lane in the summer race there. In just his sixth career start at Daytona, Byron managed to pick up the checkered flag after qualifying sixth.

He has had some struggles at this superspeedway, crashing in three of six runnings, but in the last two races when he didn’t wreck, he has a win and a second-place finish. At 17/1, there’s big value for the 23-year-old.

Ryan Blaney +1000: Similar to Byron in that Blaney has run into some bad luck with accidents, but when he’s running, it’s typically near the front. In the last four races he’s completed at Daytona, he has four top-10s, including two second-place finishes.

Additionally, he has led at least one lap in seven of his last eight runnings, and led the most laps in the 2018 Daytona 500. Though he’s never won at Daytona, he’s been in the mix and +1000 is worth a shot for him to finally break through.

Daytona 500 Sleeper Pick

Extreme sleeper – Bubba Wallace +1500: Now this one may come a little bit out of left field, given that Wallace has exactly zero wins and just three top-fives in his career. That said, two of those top-fives have come at Daytona, including a runner-up finish in the 2018 Daytona 500.

Bubba is part of the new Michael Jordan race team that may provide better gear for him to race in, and since anything can happen at Daytona, why not take a swing at a driver with +1500 odds who has already landed on the podium before.