Daytona 500 odds. Keselowski is a good bet

Daytona 500 Odds: Brad Keselowski Is A Great Bet

The Daytona 500 odds suggest that Denny Hamlin will win the opening race of the 2024 NASCAR season. But looking at the oddsboard, we suggest you go down a different path.

Here are two picks for the Daytona 500 on February 18th.

2023 Daytona 500 Odds

Odds to Win the 2023 Daytona 500
Denny Hamlin+900
Kyle Busch+1100
Ryan Blaney+1200
Brad Keselowski+1200
Kyle Larson+1400
Joey Logano+1400
Chris Buescher+1400
Chase Elliott+1400
William Byron+1600
Bubba Wallace+1800


Why You Should Fade The Favorites

The last driver to have won the Daytona 500 from a top-three starting position was Dale Earnhardt Jr in 2015.

But look just beyond the top three. A driver who's started either fifth or sixth has won on this track three times since 2020.

But beyond that, the Daytona 500 is known for its pure chaos. We've seen an average of five accidents and 14 drivers crash out at this track since 2020.

Daytona 500 Betting Picks

Brad Keselowski (+1200)

Brad doesn't have a good average finish on this course. At 19.0 he's ranked 24th for all active drivers. That falls to 19th if you take out drivers with only one race at Daytona. 

But over the past two seasons, he's done very well leading both the 2023 and 2022 Daytona 500 for lap lead at 42 and 67 respectively. Only Denny Hamlin has more laps led at Daytona (with 136) than Keselowski's 115.

He's not the favorite simply because he's not entering the season on a win or because of that average finish on this track. But neither should truly matter. We're talking about a preseason race in LA that wasn't truly contested. And an average for a race that is pure chaos. A single crash could send that average tumbling down.

Chase Elliott (+1400)

Elliott has never won the Daytona 500, and you know he desperately wants to. Specifically with how last season went. 

Chase missed a big portion of the year and had to battle and claw his way back into the playoff picture. He almost did it too. 

The number 9 car typically starts the race in a good position with an average 10.9 starting spot. But he doesn't finish well at an average of 20.9. But this is more of a gut pick than a stats-based one, specifically with the nature of the race and the chaos it presents.

Last 10 Daytona 500 Winners

Last 10 Daytona 500 Winners
YearWinnerOpening Odds
2023Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+3300
2022Austin Cindric+3300
2021Michael McDowell+10000
2020Denny Hamlin+1000
2019Denny Hamlin+1000
2018Austin Dillon+5000
2017Kurt Busch+2000
2016Denny Hamlin+1000
2015Joey Logano+1200
2014Dale Earnhardt Jr.+1200


As previously mentioned, Denny Hamlin has won this race three times in the past 10 years. And this year he’s marked down as a favorite at +1200. Can he win the Daytona 500 for the fourth time?

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