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Kyle Busch Favored to Pick Up Third Straight Checkered Flag in STP 500

Odds to win the STP 500

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series moves from the high-speed two-mile track of Auto Club Speedway to the 0.5-mile paperclip track of Martinsville for the STP 500. Last week, Kyle Busch became the first repeat winner of the season and oddsmakers believe he is primed for a third win in a row as they have made him the favorite at +220.

Bovada has Busch as the favorite at +220 followed by Brad Keselowski at +500, Martin Truex Jr. at +600, Joey Logano at +750 and Denny Hamlin at +1000 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

Standout Stats

  • Ford cars have won three of the last four races at Martinsville, including both runnings there last season.
  • Joey Logano looks to become the first back-to-back winner at the paperclip since Jimmie Johnson won consecutive races there in 2012 and 2013.
  • The pole sitter at Martinsville hasn’t won in the last 11 races dating back to 2013. In eight of the last 11 runnings, the winner qualified fifth or worse.
  • You may be looking at Kevin Harvick as a value pick at +1600, but the California native has just one win in 35 starts at Martinsville and that victory came in 2011. He hasn’t finished better than fifth there since that triumph in 2011.
  • Joey Logano has qualified on the pole in four of the last eight races at the paperclip but only finished on the podium twice over that span, including the most recent running in October of last year, which he won.
  • Clint Bowyer won the spring race last year at Martinsville, leading 215 of the 500 laps, and has finished in the top five in six of his 26 career starts at this track.
  • Kyle Busch has won two of the last six races at Martinsville and has finished fifth or better in each of the last seven runnings there. Additionally, he has led the most laps in three of the last six races.

My Best Bet for the STP 500

Kyle Busch +220

Although it’s not a long-shot pick, I think it’s the smart one. The Nevada native hasn’t finished worse than fifth in any of the last seven races at Martinsville, including finishing first or second in four of those runnings. He is carrying a lot of momentum into this weekend, having won the last two races on the season.  

Odds to win The STP 500

Odds as of March 21 at Bovada

  • Kyle Busch +220
  • Brad Keselowski +500
  • Martin Truex Jr. +600
  • Joey Logano +750
  • Denny Hamlin +1000
  • Clint Bowyer +1100
  • Kevin Harvick +1600
  • Chase Elliott +2200
  • Ryan Blaney +2200
  • Aric Almirola +2500
  • Kurt Busch +2500
  • Jimmie Johnson +2500
  • Kyle Larson +4000
  • Erik Jones +6000
  • Daniel Suarez +8500
  • Ryan Newman +8500
  • Jeb Burton +10000
  • Alex Bowman +10000
  • Austin Dillon +10000
  • Matt DiBenedetto +20000
  • Paul Menard +20000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +20000
  • Chris Buescher +30000
  • Daniel Hemric +30000
  • William Byron +30000
  • Ryan Preece +50000
  • Ty Dillon +50000D
  • D.J. Kennington +100000
  • Cody Ware +100000
  • Corey LaJoie +100000
  • David Ragan +100000
  • Landon Cassill +100000
  • Matt Tift +100000
  • Michael McDowell +100000
  • Ross Chastain +100000

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