GEICO 500 Odds: Hamlin Tops the Oddsboard

The NASCAR Cup Series had a run of three straight short-track races that wrapped up last weekend at Richmond and now is set for some restrictor-plate competition at Talladega Superspeedway in the GEICO 500. Heading into the weekend, current points leader Denny Hamlin is the favorite in GEICO 500 odds.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the GEICO 500 betting odds with Hamlin listed at +650. He’s followed by Joey Logano at +900, Ryan Blaney at +1000, Brad Keselowski at +1100 and Chase Elliott at +1100 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

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GEICO 500 Odds: Talladega Spring Race

Odds as of April 21 at Bovada

Why is Hamlin the Favorite in the GEICO 500 Odds at Talladega?

It’s not that uncommon to see the reigning champion of a race be pegged the betting favorite in the following visit to that track and that’s what we’re getting here. Hamlin picked up the checkered flag at Talladega last October, becoming the first Toyota to win at the superspeedway since 2014, a span of 12 races. Who won that race in a Toyota back in 2014, you ask? Denny Hamlin.

Furthermore, he has had four top-five finishes in the last five runnings at Talladega, with a crash in one of the races breaking up the streak. In 30 career starts at the track, he has 13 top-10 finishes.

Hamlin’s stats in 2021

As mentioned off the top, Denny Hamlin is the points leader in the NASCAR Cup Series standings and is among the three favorites in the Championship Cup odds. There hasn’t been a more consistent driver this season, as Hamlin has eight top-five finishes through nine starts, while also adding five stage wins, and he has led more laps than any other driver (694).

All those stats are nice for the No. 11 machine, but the one thing you may have noticed was not included was a victory. That first checkered flag of the season has been elusive, though he has five podium finishes. Could this be the week he drives to victory lane?

NASCAR Predictions this week for the GEICO 500: Talladega Spring Race

Superspeedways such as Talladega and Daytona are fun tracks to bet on because typically you will see more than 20 lead changes, there will be a pack of 20 or so cars all within a second of each other, and there tends to be a late charge that ends one of three ways: the leader wins, the charger wins or they crash. For those reasons, it is also hard to handicap, but here are my three best bets for the GEICO 500.

Denny Hamlin +650: First of all, I’m not a huge fan of taking the favorite, especially at superspeedways where one wreck takes out half the field. However, as I said last week at Richmond, I will be taking Hamlin every week to win and to finish in the top five because he’s simply too consistent and is always in the mix to win.

Ryan Blaney +1000: Before Hamlin took the last race at Talladega, Ryan Blaney won the two previous runnings. Blaney showed speed at the fast-paced Atlanta Motor Speedway four races ago, driving to victory lane, and he has led at least one lap in eight of his 13 career starts at Talladega. The Fords have been dominant at this track in recent memory, winning 10 of the last 13 runnings, and Blaney is one I’m willing to hitch my wagon to.

Joey Logano +900: While Hamlin was the victor in the last race at this track, it was Logano who led the most laps at 45 before crashing. The 2018 champion has led five or more laps at Talladega in 10 of the last 11 runnings, he has three career victories there and 33.3 percent of his 24 starts at the track have been top-five finishes. With one win already under his belt this season, look for Logano to be hunting for another at this superspeedway.