The Denver Nuggets are tied for the best home record in the NBA and the best record in the Western Conference and will look to win their fourth straight game when they host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Nuggets have won 10 of their last 12 games with their stout defense while the Mavs have dropped their last two contests and are 2-10 SU in 12 road games this season.
The Nuggets opened as 5-point favorites with a total of 207.5.
- The Mavericks are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road.
- The Nuggets are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in 15 home games this season.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Nuggets’ last 7 games at home.
Mavericks vs Nuggets Game Center
Nuggets Have Been Dominant at the Pepsi Center
It may feel like an old wives’ tale when someone describes the playing conditions in Denver due to the altitude and how it’s an advantage to the home team but the Nuggets seem to be living up to that stereotype. The Nuggets are tied for the best home record in the NBA at 12-4 SU and have covered the spread in 11 of those games. One of the reasons for their uprising is their defense, which ranks third in points allowed per game (103.5) and second in opponent three-point percentage (32.2). The Nuggets have held teams to less than 100 points in 12 of their 29 games this year.
The spread is currently at -5 and it may be the best bet for this game because of the Nuggets’ average win margin at the Pepsi Center. Denver is beating teams by an average of 17.4 points per game in its home wins and only three of those wins came by five points or less. The Nuggets have also beaten the Mavericks four straight times at home and have won five of the last seven games in this matchup.
I’m on the Nuggets to win and cover the spread. I think they’re the better team and the injuries to Gary Harris and Paul Millsap haven’t been enough to slow them down – they’re 6-2 SU with Harris out of the lineup and 3-1 SU with Millsap on the sideline.
Mavericks’ Road Woes Make them Fade Material
Dropping their last two games to the Suns and Kings, the Mavericks have fallen to 15-13 SU in 28 games and while they still have a record above .500, there are clear warning signs that the ship might be sinking. The Mavericks are ranked 21st in points scored per game this month (106.9) while ranking 29th in three-point percentage.
This shoddy offense is likely why the Mavericks are an ugly 2-10 SU in 12 road games this season and failed to cover in seven of those games. Dating back to last season, the Mavericks are 2-15 SU in their last 17 road games.
I’m fading the Mavs in this one as I just don’t think they have the firepower to overcome Denver’s strong defense and as much as I love Luka Doncic, the team is relying on a 19-year-old in crunch time and his scoring drops from 19.3 points per game down to 15.3 points in road games.
Is Another UNDER In Store in the Rockies?
The total opened at 207.5 (since moved to 208) and the UNDER is trending in this one. The UNDER has hit in five of the Nuggets’ last seven games at home with an average combined score of 204.5 points per game and the UNDER has hit in nine of their last 11 games when the total closed at 208 or more. Factoring in that the UNDER has also hit in four of the Mavericks’ last five games with an average combined score of 206, bettors can’t be faulted for anticipating a low-scoring game.
My Pick Is…
To take the Nuggets to win and cover the spread. Right now, they have looked the best in their home games this season and I can’t fade them until they start to falter due to the injuries. The Mavs have started to show signs of regression and are a great fade candidate as 5-point underdogs.
