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NBA Warriors vs Mavericks

Golden State (62-32 SU, 47-43-4 ATS) is a perfect 7-0 SU in the playoffs at home, winning its last two games at Chase Center by a combined total of 39 points. The Warriors seek another dominant performance when they host the Mavericks (60-36, 56-38-2), but Dallas has covered 13 of its last 16 games following a SU loss by double digits.

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Mavericks vs Warriors Odds & Analysis

Opening Odds 

Oddsmakers haven’t made much of an adjustment to the side or total following Golden State’s lopsided victory in Game 1, moving the Warriors from 5.5-point chalk for the series opener to 6-point faves tonight. The OVER/UNDER opened at the exact same number as it did for Wednesday’s contest, though early Mavericks vs Warriors predictions on the UNDER caused the total to drop slightly to 214 by Friday morning.

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Poor Shooting Doomed Mavs in Game 1, But Dallas Usually Bounces Back Strong

Three days after everything went right in their Game 7 blowout win over Phoenix, not much worked for the Mavericks in Wednesday’s series opener. Dallas’ perimeter shooting struggled from the opening tip, with the Mavericks missing 16 of their first 19 shots from behind the arc and finishing the first quarter with just 18 points. Jalen Brunson and Davis Bertans were the Mavs’ coldest outside shooters, combining to go 0-for-9 from long distance.

Luka Doncic also struggled, missing 12 of his 18 field-goal attempts and finishing with a playoff-low 20 points. But Dallas fans can take solace in the fact that their team has bounced back well from lopsided losses in these playoffs, winning a pair of games in the last round following defeats by 20-plus points.

In fact, the Mavericks have been excellent the past two years when coming off a poor performance, going 38-16 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU loss. Dallas’ defense has a lot to do with it as the Mavs are 30-12-1 to the UNDER in their last 43 after an ATS loss, 9-4 in their last 13 following a SU loss and 13-3 in their last 16 after a SU loss by 10-plus points.

Home Floor Continues To Be A Big Advantage For Golden State In The Playoffs

The Warriors remain undefeated at home in the postseason, moving to 7-0 SU at Chase Center with Wednesday’s 25-point victory that improved the Dubs to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home overall. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined to score just 36 points, but five other Warriors stepped up to score in double digits, including 19 points from Andrew Wiggins.

Wiggins’ defensive play was also instrumental in shutting down Doncic, while the Warriors dominated the boards to the tune of a 51-35 advantage. Golden State also took better care of the ball than it did in the last round against Memphis, committing just six turnovers in the first half and 15 on the night.

Although Golden State has now won its last two games by a combined 39 points, it might be a mistake to expect complacency to set in with this veteran bunch. The Warriors don’t typically allow their opponents to get off the mat in the postseason, having won 13 consecutive series in which they won Game 1.

Mavericks vs Warriors Pick & Insights

Mavericks: Keys To Cover

Dallas’ role players certainly have to be better than they were in Game 1, but the biggest key to the Mavericks’ upset hopes in this series is clearly Doncic’s ability to put up big offensive numbers. Expect the Mavs superstar to be aggressive from the opening jump, and for Dallas to bring a much better effort at the defensive end of the floor.

Warriors: Keys To Cover

Golden State was a much better rebounding team than Dallas during the regular season, and that advantage shone through in Game 1 as the Warriors limited the Mavericks to just eight second-chance points. Curry and Thompson could also be poised for big nights after being held in check on Wednesday. If the Splash Brothers go off, another blowout victory could be in the cards as a Mavericks vs Warriors prediction.

NBA Computer Pick: Warriors -6

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Shark Bites
  • Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games after a SU loss.
  • Golden State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in Dallas’ last 6 games.