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2024 NBA Draft Odds: No Consensus Favorite Amongst Weak Class

While the upcoming 2024 NBA draft class is widely viewed as one of the weakest in recent memory, the value which comes from securing the first overall pick remains vast as several teams out of the playoff picture pray the ping pong balls fall in their favor.

The Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons, and San Antonio Spurs currently possess the league's worst overall records to kick off the month of March, which explains why all three are locked in having the strongest betting odds of landing the top selection. 

2024 NBA Draft: First overall pick odds

Washington Wizards (Own Pick)+550
Detroit Pistons+550
San Antonio Spurs+550
Charlotte Hornets+650
Memphis Grizzlies +900
Toronto Raptors+1200
Houston Rockets (Via Brooklyn Nets)+1400
Atlanta Hawks+2000
Houston Rockets (Own Pick)+2200
Utah Jazz+2500
Chicago Bulls+4000
New Orleans Pelicans (Via Los Angeles Lakers)+12000
Golden State Warriors+12000
Washington Wizards (Via Phoenix Suns)+30000
Philadelphia 76ers +30000

Odds as of March 1, 2024

The Spurs were awarded the first pick for the 2023 draft after finishing tied for the worst record in the Western Conference and second-worst win-loss record overall at 22-60. It's rare for a team to win the lottery in consecutive years, although the Cleveland Cavaliers did so in 2013 and 2014 by taking Canadian prospects Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins, respectively. 

Predicting the 2024 nBA first overall pick: Alexandre Sarr

While 18-year-old Alexandre Sarr is another 7-footer out of France, which will unfortunately draw some comparisons to the unicorn that is Victor Wembanyama, the similarities stop there. 

Sarr has incredible promise nonetheless. His physical gifts at his height and length with a 7-foot-4 and a half wingspan can't be ignored, and his offensive repertoire is far more refined than some may realize for a player only averaging 9.7 points with the Perth Wildcats. 

You can't teach size, and Sarr has that in spades. There are questions surrounding his efficiency as a shooter (shooting under 30 percent from 3-point range and just over 70 percent at the free-throw line) and his inconsistent play overall, but in terms of long-term upside, Sarr may provide the most for any bottom-feeding team looking to strike it big.

2024 Draft Odds: Other Potential First Picks

Analyzing a number of mock drafts from experts across the web reveals a commonality: No one player is head and shoulders above the rest as the undisputed favorite to go first overall, unlike Wembanyama last year with -50000 odds at the time of the draft. This leaves the door open for a number of prospects to slot into that spot.

Matas Buzelis

This class isn't devoid of long wings with versatility on both ends of the floor, with Matas Buzelis arguably being the best of the bunch. He's averaging 13.3 points and 6.4 rebounds while shooting 46.2 percent for the G-League Ignite, although his 31.3 percent efficiency from 3-point range is worrisome. Can he be the No. 1 option offensively in a winning situation? 

Zaccharie Risacher 

Basketball is in Zaccharie Risacher's blood, as his father Stephane Risacher was a six-time French League All-Star and Spanish League champion in 2006. Being able to defend both guards and bigs is a welcome skill for anyone at the small forward position, which young Zaccharie has showcased as a member of France's JL Bourg-en-Bresse. He doesn't command the ball, nor has he shown a knack for creating his own shot, but Risacher does convert his attempts at a high rate and isn't prone to making too many errors.

Where will Bronny James be drafted?

The wild card in this entire class is Bronny James, the son of Los Angeles Lakers megastar LeBron James, whose made it clear that he would like to play alongside Bronny before his own career comes to an end.

If Bronny were to be picked, and considering LeBron could turn down his player option for 2024-25 and hit unrestricted free agency, there's a chance one of the league's 30 teams could simply take Bronny with the hope that LeBron would come along for the ride, as well. 

LeBron even came to his son's defense in a now deleted tweet on X after Bronny was removed from ESPN's 2024 mock draft, which now has the USC Freshman going in the second round of the 2025 draft instead. 

Bronny is averaging just 5.3 points primarily as a reserve across 19 appearances for the Trojans, and could use another season or two of college hoops under his belt before declaring. The pressure will undoubtedly be there to enter and become the first father-son duo with LeBron to ever be in the NBA at the same time, though.

Last 10 NBA First Overall Picks

YearPlayerSchool / TeamOdds at Time of Draft
2023Victor WembanyamaMetropolitans 92 (France LNB)-50000
2022Paolo Banchero (ORL)Duke-200
2021Cade Cunningham (DET)Oklahoma State-8000
2020Anthony Edwards (MIN)Georgia-125
2019Zion Williamson (NOP)Duke-2500
2018Deandre Ayton (PHX)Arizona-2500
2017Markelle Fultz (PHI)Washington-750
2016Ben Simmons (PHI)LSU-650
2015Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)Kentucky-200
2014Andrew Wiggins (CLE)Kansas-250

Wembanyama is the most recent first-overall pick to play for a team outside the US -- the last was in 2006, when Andrea Bargnani (Italy) was selected by the Toronto Raptors. He’s added to a long list of great players, most of whom are now the star players on their respective squad.

Victor Wembanyama at a San Antonio Spurs Press Day

NBA Draft betting trends

NBA futures are incredibly exciting to bet on, and the draft emphasizes that perfectly; we're always due for a bit of drama and shocking switches come draft day. That being said, it can also be tricky to spot trends year-over-year – with different teams drafting each year, and the calibre and position of players mattering so heavily, teams will adjust their needs with each prospective player.

Regardless, consult our NBA Draft betting guide and check out a few of these trends to help you handicap a potential futures bet on the first-overall pick and more:

  • Positionally, the first pick in the NBA draft is fairly spread out. Over the past 10 years, three centers, three guards, and four forwards have been selected.
  • Only three out of the previous ten first-overall picks have been named Rookie of the Year.
  • Most NBA prospects will only play a single year of college ball before joining the league – Wembanyama is the only player in ten years to break this rule, playing three years in France’s LNB.
  • Duke produces the highest amount of first-overall picks, with five in its history. Kentucky holds the record for the most overall draft picks, with twenty-two in total.
  • The NBA’s international reach has opened the potential for players born outside the USA to be selected first overall – five of the last ten have been non-American.

NBA Draft Odds FAQ

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