With 39,960 points over his 21 seasons in the National Basketball Association, LeBron James - who's already the league's all-time leading scorer - needs only 40 more points to become the first player to ever reach 40,000 points for their career.
As of Feb. 26, oddsmakers believed a March 4 showdown between James' Los Angeles Lakers and the Oklahoma City Thunder at Crypto.com Arena was the likeliest date for history to be made, if not two days earlier against the reigning champion Denver Nuggets.
What Game Will LeBron James Score His 40,000th Career Point? (as of feb. 26)
| Date | Opponent | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| February 29, 2024 | Washington Wizards | +3800 |
| March 2, 2024 | Denver Nuggets | +155 |
| March 4, 2024 | Oklahoma City Thunder | +120 |
| March 6, 2024 | Sacramento Kings | +430 |
| March 8, 2024 | Milwaukee Bucks | +1100 |
| March 10, 2024 | Minnesota Timberwolves | +3700 |
| March 13, 2024 | Sacramento Kings | +7000 |
Bettors can even wager on the method in which James will score his 40,000th point, with a layup being the current favorite at +175 followed by a make from behind the arc at +300.
How Will LeBron James Score His 40,000th Career Point?
| Method | Odds |
|---|---|
| Layup | +175 |
| 3-Point Field Goal | +300 |
| Other | +320 |
| Free Throw | +500 |
| Dunk | +550 |
Why was March 4 the betting favorite?
James is averaging 25.2 points per game across 52 appearances in 2023-24, and he's dropped at least 20 points in every game he's competed in since Jan. 11.
The betting odds have since been removed, likely due to James being so close to the number.
Oddsmakers had been conservative with its approach listing the March 4 matchup with Oklahoma City as the favorite. However, a 34-point effort against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday probably impacted those odds in a major way.
LeBron outscored the entire Clippers team in the 4th quarter 🤯 pic.twitter.com/ruCn8aRfgf
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 29, 2024
Injury Concerns Could Factor In
James is undoubtedly going to hit this incredible milestone, but there's no sense of urgency on his part to do so anytime soon, especially considering his current circumstances.
The 39-year-old forward has played 34, 36, and 37 minutes in three games since the All-Star break, respectively, yet he still deals with a lingering left ankle injury which kept him sidelined on Feb. 22 against the Golden State Warriors.
The Lakers currently own a 32-28 record SU, good enough for ninth place in the Western Conference. The Warriors trail by only half a game, and the eighth-seeded Sacramento Kings are a full two games ahead. It will take the sixth seed or better to avoid the play-in tournament altogether, but that would mean surpassing the Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans, and Phoenix Suns while keeping the Warriors at bay.
LeBron James is getting his leg checked on the bench.
— 🎗NBA•Fan🎗 (@Klutch_23) February 25, 2024
He’s still very clearly in pain. pic.twitter.com/bbw0bazaV4
James' presence will be crucial to keep the Lakers competitive in such a tight race, but as the team proved last season, being in the play-in tournament could be good enough after advancing all the way to the conference finals a year ago.
NBA All-Time Leading Scorers List
| Player | Games Played | Points |
|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 1,473 | 39,960 |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 1,560 | 38,387 |
| Karl Malone | 1,476 | 36,928 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1,346 | 33,643 |
| Michael Jordan | 1,072 | 32,292 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 1,522 | 31,560 |
| Wilt Chamberlain | 1,045 | 31,419 |
| Shaquille O'Neal | 1,207 | 28,596 |
| Kevin Durant | 1,037 | 28,318 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 1,260 | 28,289 |
| Moses Malone | 1,329 | 27,409 |
| Elvin Hayes | 1,303 | 27,313 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon | 1,238 | 26,946 |
| Oscar Robertson | 1,040 | 26,710 |
James became the NBA's all-time leading scorer by passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Feb. 7, 2023, ironically enough against the same Thunder who are favored to be the team the four-time champion will score his 40,000th point against.
