Trading a three-game losing streak with a three-game win streak, the Boston Celtics will aim to win their ninth home game in a row when they host the Miami Heat tonight. The Celtics are beating teams by an average of 15 points during their hot streak at TD Garden and will be looking for vengeance after getting smoked by 16 points when they faced the Heat just under two weeks ago.
The Celtics opened as 8-point favorites with a total of 215.5 (since moved to 212.5).
- The Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
- The Celtics are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the Celtics’ last 9 games at home.
The Heat Own The Best Spread Record on the Road
Miami is known for a few things like amazing beaches, great weather and its team being an excellent bet away from South Beach. The Heat seem to do their most damage away from AmericanAirlines Arena as they’re 13-8 against the spread in 21 road games this season and have covered in 10 of their last 14 away games.
Miami may only rank 24th in points scored per road game this season (106.2) but it’s holding teams to only 105.8 points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. This is one of the main reasons why a team with no obvious all-stars is able to keep games close and has led the Heat to be one of seven teams in the league with a winning road record. Additionally, they’re third in points allowed in the paint (43.8) and fourth in opponent field-goal percentage in away games.
I like the Heat’s chances to cover the spread tonight even with how great the Celtics have played at home lately. The Heat have played this team tough as they’ve covered the spread in five of the last six games in this matchup and in their last 10 trips to Boston, they’ve covered the spread in six of those games and have only lost by eight or more points once.
Celtics Destroying Teams Lately in BeanTown
For a team trying to rival the Warriors for in-team drama, the Celtics still show up in front of their home fans. Boston is riding an eight-game win streak at TD Garden, beating teams by an average of 15 points per game, and its spread record during the streak would be an identical 8-0 if the Celtics hadn’t had a brain fart against Memphis.
Kyrie Irving may not be the leader that he touts himself to be but bettors can’t deny that he’s getting it done for the Celtics as he’s averaging 24.7 points, 7.6 assists and 44 percent from three-point range in January. He along with the rest of the backcourt (minus Marcus Smart) will need to step up if they plan to win (and cover) in this game because the Heat allow 60.6 points per game to opposing guards, which ranks 25th in the NBA.
I’m not ready to fade the Celtics in this one because I do think there is blowout potential but that being said, if this line stays at -8, bettors should know Boston is 11-31 ATS in its last 42 games as a fave of 8 points or more.
Celtics Home Games Leading to OVERs
The total opened at 215.5 and when the Celtics take the floor at TD Garden, the OVER tends to follow. The OVER has hit in seven of the Celtics’ last nine games at home with an average combined score of 225 points per game. When you factor in that the OVER has hit in nine of the Heat’s last 11 games with a closing total of 215.5 or less, this line may be set too low.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. I think the line is set too low based on how the Celtics have played at home lately as they’re allowing 107 points per game during this win streak but scoring 122.5. If I had to make a spread pick, I’d lean to the Celtics but don’t feel confident enough to bet it, which is why I’m on the total.
