NBA

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Miami
Heat
39 - 31
Milwaukee
Bucks
45 - 25
May 15, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
 | Fiserv Forum

Game Preview

Miami
Heat
39 - 31
Milwaukee
Bucks
45 - 25
May 15, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
 | Fiserv Forum
  • The Miami Heat (39-31 SU, 33-35-2 ATS) take on the Milwaukee Bucks (45-25 SU,31-39 ATS) for the third time this season, but for the first time in this calendar year. The Bucks and Heat played on back-to-back nights on December 29th and 30th, splitting the series, and have not met since. The Bucks opened as favorites in this matchup.

    Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks
    • Date/Time: May 15, 8:00 p.m. ET
    • Stadium: Fiserv Forum
    • TV Coverage: ESPN
    • Sportsbook Odds: Bucks -5.5 | O/U 232 (Line History)
    • Heat vs Bucks Matchup Report

    Sportsbook Odds Analysis

    The game opened with the Bucks favored at -5.5 and the line has moved to between -1.5 and -3 depending on the sportsbook. The total opened at 232 and has stayed at that number with even odds on the UNDER and OVER.

    Miami News & Notes

    The Miami Heat are currently in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with two games to go in the regular season and can end up anywhere from fourth to sixth depending on how things shake out. The Heat have won four in a row and eight of their last ten making them one of the hottest teams in the East heading into the playoffs.

    Bam Adebayo is averaging 18.3 points and 7.8 rebounds while shooting 63.3% over the last 10 games for Miami. Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring overall this season with 21.5 points, adding 6.9 rebounds and 7.1 assists.

    The underlying numbers are not great for the Heat, however as they rank fairly low in many different metrics. The Heat have the eighth-worst turnover percentage in the league this season and the ninth-worst rebound percentage. Basically, they give the ball away a lot and have a hard time getting it back.

    The Heat does spread the ball around effectively on offense though as they have the top-ranked assist percentage in the league.

    Milwaukee News & Notes

    The Milwaukee Bucks have all the regular-season success of the Heat (and then some) but without the poorer underlying numbers. The Bucks are the fourth-best rebounding team in the league with a 51.9 rebounding percentage. The Bucks get it done on both ends of the floor as they have a top ten defensive rating and the fourth-best offensive rating.

    In terms of just raw scoring, the Bucks also average the most points in the league this season per game, scoring 120.2 points per outing. They also have the third-best field goal percentage and third-best three points percentage.

    It shouldn’t be too surprising with one of the league’s best players dominating both ends of the court. Giannis Antetokounmpo is fifth in league scoring averaging 28.4 points per game and is one of just four players in the league who are in the top twenty in scoring and averaging a double-double.

    Betting Pick: Bucks -3

    When you dig into the numbers a little bit it becomes clear the Bucks are a truly elite team. And while the Heat have some great players, their numbers tell a different story. The Heat are simply overmatched by the Bucks from an analytical standpoint so the bet is a pretty easy one, especially if you can find a line closer to -1.5.

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    Shark Bites
    • The OVER is 10-1 in the Heat's last 11 games.
    • Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
    • Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games vs Milwaukee.

Odds

Saturday, May 15 Sat May 15


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+5.5
-110
+100
o232
-110
-5.5
-110
-118
u232
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+4.5
-110
+160
o233
-115
-4.5
-110
-180
u233
-105

Edge Finder

109.79
Points Scored
117.05
46.01
Field Goal %
47.30
34.62
Three Point %
36.88
82.73
Free Throw %
74.07
40.76
Total Rebounds
48.39
109.79
Points Scored
117.05
28.42
First Quarter
30.54
27.84
Second Quarter
28.23
26.25
Third Quarter
30.21
26.74
Fourth Quarter
27.39
46.01
Field Goal %
47.30
82.73
Free Throw %
74.07
34.62
Three Point %
36.88
34.91
Three's Attempts
40.36
12.08
Three's Made
14.89
9.58
Offensive
11.09
31.18
Defensive
37.30
40.76
Total Rebounds
48.39
23.91
Assists
25.85
18.87
Fouls
18.10
12.60
Turnovers
13.90
7.91
Steals
6.37

Head To Head

MIA
Stat Type MIL
7-3
Record
3-7
7-3
ATS
3-7
5-5
O/U
5-5
113.20
Points Scored
112.70
55.70
Half Time Score
59.30
45.52%
Field Goal Percentage
44.96%
44.30
Rebounds
44.60
156/404
3 Point Shots
138/382
6.80
Steals
8.40
MIA
Stat Type MIL
2-1
Record
1-2
2-1
ATS
1-2
1-2
O/U
1-2
106.33
Points Scored
115.33
51.33
Half Time Score
61.67
47.86%
Field Goal Percentage
43.51%
43.33
Rebounds
44.33
37/107
3 Point Shots
54/125
6.67
Steals
11.67
Dec 30/20 (1 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Home
Away
119
Points Scored
108
+6.5
ATS
-6.5
228.5 o
O/U
228.5 u
51
Half Time Score
56
48.80%
Field Goal Percentage
39.20%
52
Rebounds
47
15/39
3 Point Shots
16/41
5
Steals
14
Dec 29/20 (2 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Home
Away
97
Points Scored
144
+6
ATS
-6
227.5 o
O/U
227.5 u
51
Half Time Score
83
46.80%
Field Goal Percentage
55.40%
30
Rebounds
45
11/37
3 Point Shots
29/51
9
Steals
14
Sep 8/20 (3 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Away
Home
103
Points Scored
94
-5.5
ATS
+5.5
220 o
O/U
220 u
52
Half Time Score
46
47.90%
Field Goal Percentage
36.30%
48
Rebounds
41
11/31
3 Point Shots
9/33
6
Steals
7
Sep 6/20 (4 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Home
Away
115
Points Scored
118
+2
ATS
-2
219.5 o
O/U
219.5 u
48
Half Time Score
50
44.40%
Field Goal Percentage
48.90%
41
Rebounds
46
17/47
3 Point Shots
11/35
8
Steals
10
Sep 4/20 (5 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Home
Away
115
Points Scored
100
+5
ATS
-5
222 o
O/U
222 u
50
Half Time Score
57
44.90%
Field Goal Percentage
42.00%
49
Rebounds
44
18/47
3 Point Shots
11/37
3
Steals
8
Sep 2/20 (6 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Away
Home
116
Points Scored
114
+5.5
ATS
-5.5
223.5 o
O/U
223.5 u
66
Half Time Score
60
45.70%
Field Goal Percentage
43.50%
38
Rebounds
50
17/45
3 Point Shots
7/25
12
Steals
6
Aug 31/20 (7 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Away
Home
115
Points Scored
104
+5
ATS
-5
223.5 o
O/U
223.5 u
60
Half Time Score
63
46.40%
Field Goal Percentage
49.30%
46
Rebounds
34
12/31
3 Point Shots
16/35
8
Steals
6
Aug 6/20 (8 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Away
Home
116
Points Scored
130
+9.5
ATS
-9.5
223.5 o
O/U
223.5 u
73
Half Time Score
56
42.20%
Field Goal Percentage
52.60%
39
Rebounds
44
21/46
3 Point Shots
15/37
6
Steals
7
Mar 2/20 (9 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Home
Away
105
Points Scored
89
+5
ATS
-5
227.5 o
O/U
227.5 u
53
Half Time Score
52
43.00%
Field Goal Percentage
40.70%
46
Rebounds
48
18/37
3 Point Shots
7/34
4
Steals
4
Oct 26/19 (10 of 10)
MIA
Stat Type MIL
Away
Home
131
Points Scored
126
+11.5
ATS
-11.5
222.5 o
O/U
222.5 u
53
Half Time Score
70
45.50%
Field Goal Percentage
43.60%
54
Rebounds
47
16/44
3 Point Shots
17/54
7
Steals
8

Team Records

MIA
Record MIL
39-31
All
45-25
21-15
Home
25-10
18-16
Away
20-15
31-18
As Fav
45-21
7-13
As Dog
0-4
33-35-2
ATS
31-39
15-19-2
ATS Home
17-18
18-16
ATS Away
14-21
37-33
O/U
40-30
20-16
O/U Home
22-13
17-17
O/U Away
18-17
MIA
Record MIL
8-2
All
8-2
4-2
Home
5-0
4-0
Away
3-2
7-2
As Fav
8-2
1-0
As Dog
0-0
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
3-2-1
ATS Home
2-3
4-0
ATS Away
2-3
9-1
O/U
5-5
5-1
O/U Home
2-3
4-0
O/U Away
3-2
MIA
Record MIL
6-6
All
11-0
3-3
Home
6-0
3-3
Away
5-0
6-6
As Fav
11-0
0-0
As Dog
0-0
3-9
ATS
8-3
2-4
ATS Home
5-1
1-5
ATS Away
3-2
7-5
O/U
5-6
2-4
O/U Home
4-2
5-1
O/U Away
1-4
MIA
Record MIL
23-17
All
29-11
12-9
Home
15-5
11-8
Away
14-6
19-11
As Fav
29-9
4-6
As Dog
0-2
20-19-1
ATS
21-19
9-11-1
ATS Home
11-9
11-8
ATS Away
10-10
23-17
O/U
20-20
11-10
O/U Home
12-8
12-7
O/U Away
8-12
MIA
Record MIL
16-14
All
16-14
9-6
Home
10-5
7-8
Away
6-9
12-7
As Fav
16-12
3-7
As Dog
0-2
13-16-1
ATS
10-20
6-8-1
ATS Home
6-9
7-8
ATS Away
4-11
14-16
O/U
20-10
9-6
O/U Home
10-5
5-10
O/U Away
10-5

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
Kevin LovePFIs "?", Heel
Josh RichardsonSGIs out indefinitely, Shoulder
Tyler HerroSGIs "?", Knee
Dru SmithSGIs out for season, Knee
Name Position Inj Desc
Khris MiddletonSGIs out indefinitely, Ankle

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line Total ATS FG% FT% 3PTM
May 13, 2021PHI106-94W-1.5218.50W/U50.62100.0013
May 11, 2021BOS129-121W-1.5224.50W/O59.2677.2716
May 9, 2021BOS130-124W+1222W/O57.3290.9116
May 7, 2021MIN121-112W-8228.50W/O50.5774.0713
May 4, 2021DAL113-127L-1215.50L/O46.4380.9518
May 2, 2021CHR121-111W-5.5213W/O51.1474.0711
May 1, 2021CLE124-107W-11.5209W/O54.0280.0018
Apr 28, 2021SAN116-111W-5213P/O50.5987.509
Apr 26, 2021CHI102-110L-6206L/O42.8692.007
Apr 24, 2021CHI106-101W-4.5203.50W/O45.0083.3314
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line Total ATS FG% FT% 3PTM
May 13, 2021IND142-133W-9.5241.50L/O57.4574.1911
May 11, 2021ORL114-102W-15230L/U42.5774.078
May 10, 2021SAN125-146L-7233.50L/O50.0078.2613
May 7, 2021HOU141-133W-17.5233.50L/O53.6886.9619
May 5, 2021WAS135-134W-4243L/O53.9375.0018
May 4, 2021BKN124-118W-1.5242.50W/U44.9081.4814
May 2, 2021BKN117-114W-2.5242.50W/U48.9850.0015
Apr 30, 2021CHI108-98W-1.5223W/U46.6775.009
Apr 29, 2021HOU136-143L-14233L/O52.6988.0016
Apr 27, 2021CHR114-104W-9.5225.50W/U50.5478.579
View Game Logs
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