Sitting tied for first in the Western Conference with the Golden State Warriors, the Denver Nuggets are putting the NBA on notice and aim to win their 11th home game this season when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets are 11-4 SU in 15 games vs West teams and are 5-1 SU in the last six games in this matchup. The Thunder are wrapping up a quick two-game road trip and fell to the Pelicans in their last outing.
The Thunder opened as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 216 (since moved to 217.5).
- The Nuggets are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in 13 home games this season.
- The Thunder are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs the Nuggets.
- The UNDER has hit in 9 of the Thunder’s 13 road games this season.
Thunder vs Nuggets Game Center
Nuggets Are Tough To Beat at Pepsi Center
Winning eight of its last 10 games, Denver has quietly become one of the best teams to watch on NBA League Pass and has become a force with defense. The Nuggets rank fourth in points allowed per game (103.7) and second in opponent three-point percentage (32.1) and have held teams to less than 100 points in 10 of their 27 games this year.
Opponents have been having a rough go when having to play in altitude with the Nuggets winning 10 of their 13 games at home and covering the spread in nine of those outings. Jamal Murray is expected to be on the court tonight after getting banged up vs the Grizzlies and they’ll need his scoring (17.4 points per game) to combat the Thunder’s stout defense.
I like the Nuggets to win and cover in this spot given how they play at home and the fact they’re 5-2 SU in seven games when tabbed as an underdog. Another factor is they’ve covered in the last five games in this matchup, so get on Denver now.
Thunder Have a Different Look Than Years Past
Sitting at 17-9 SU through 26 games, Oklahoma City is not a one-man show like in recent years when it was Russell Westbrook and 11 other guys. Westbrook is obviously still a beast and going for his third straight season of averaging a triple-double but the supporting cast has made it easier on the fiery point guard. Paul George and Dennis Schroder are combining to average 39 points per game and have been respectable from three-point range, with both averaging over 35 percent from deep.
But their presence on the perimeter is what really stands out for this iteration of the Thunder. OKC ranks fourth in opponent three-point percentage and eighth in field-goal percentage while forcing 17 turnovers per game, which ranks first.
While I think the Thunder will be heard from when the Western Conference playoff picture shakes out, I don’t like their chances to win this game mainly due to how they have fared on the road and the fact that they’ve lost to this team already this season. The Thunder are 1-5 SU in the last six games in this matchup while also going 1-5 ATS in those contests.
Totals Tend to Go UNDER In Thunder Road Games
The total opened at 216 (since moved to 217.5) and when the Thunder play on the road, the UNDER usually follows. The UNDER has hit in nine of Oklahoma City’s 13 road games this season with an average combined score of 212.2 points per game. Both of these defenses rank in the top five in points allowed per game so I expect this one to be a low-scoring affair.
My Pick Is…
To take the Denver moneyline and for them to win this game outright. The Nuggets have been too good at home to pass on them as an underdog and since they’re 5-2 SU in seven games in that spot, I like them to get the W.
