The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the hottest bets in the NBA lately and they aim to win their fifth game in a row when they face the New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA nightcap. The Thunder are storming up the standings by winning 11 of their last 12 games and have won five of their last six on the road. The Pelicans, on the other hand, look like a wounded animal from the Anthony Davis drama and are coming off two losses with him in the lineup in which they only scored a combined 178 points.
Although it’s Valentine’s Day, oddsmakers are showing no love for the Pelicans, opening them as 4.5-point dogs with a total of 237.
- The Thunder are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The Pelicans are allowing 115.9 points per home game (ranked 25th).
- The OVER has hit in four of the Thunder’s last five road games.
Thunder vs Pelicans Game Center
Could This Be A Letdown Spot For The Thunder?
With this being the last game before the all-star break and two starters ruled out in Jerian Grant and Dennis Schroeder, yeah it could be, but betting against the Thunder has been a losing proposition lately. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games while covering the spread in 10 of them and are now 3.5 games back of the Warriors for first in the Western Conference.
Russell Westbrook continues to put up triple-doubles like it’s just another stat while Paul George has ascended to the MVP conversation with his stellar play. PG-13 has scored 30 or more points in 10 of the Thunder’s last 12 games and it’s not a coincidence that OKC has gone 10-2 ATS in those games while averaging 122.2 points per game, which is first in the NBA over that span. Excellent three-point shooting is usually reserved just for the Warriors but the Thunder are shooting a blistering 44.1 percent from deep with George leading the way at 68-for-138 (49.2 percent) beyond the arc in the last 12 games.
I am obviously leery of backing the Thunder with two starters out but they have made me a ton of money during this winning stretch so I have to keep riding them until they fail me.
Pelicans’ Defense Is An Issue
Even though Anthony Davis is technically still a Pelican, you wouldn’t know it by the recent box scores. Davis and the Pelicans got stomped by the Grizzlies and Magic in their last two games and Davis only totaled 17 points while shooting an ugly 5-for-17 from the field.
When he’s engaged, he can be a defensive force but the writing is on the wall that there is a lot of drama in the Bayou and even he can’t stop the bleeding on the defensive end. The Pellies allow 115.9 points per home game, which ranks 25th in the NBA this season.
The Pelicans have lost eight of their last 11 games, five of their last six at home and seven of the last 10 in this matchup. As a bettor, why would you want to take the Pelicans in this spot and at this spread? Because you think the Thunder won’t care about the game since it’s the final one before the all-star break? That and the Thunder missing two of their starters are the only reasons I can see why you would wager on New Orleans tonight and that’s not something I intend to endorse.
Is Another OVER in Store for the Thunder?
The total opened at 237 and while that is an extremely high line, these are two teams that could surpass that figure. The OVER has hit in four of the Thunder’s last five road games, which had an average combined score of 239 points per game. The Pelicans’ defense is so bad this year and if they keep the pace with the Thunder, this game could easily surpass that total because the Thunder are shooting the lights out right now.
My Pick Is…
To take the Thunder to win and cover the spread. OKC is just such a handful offensively for opposing teams that I can’t see the Thunder being stopped by any team, let alone one that looks completely checked out. I know bettors will look at this game as a trap bet in backing the Thunder but I feel like if you’re taking the Pelicans, you’re taking them based on gut and not stats, which is something I do not recommend.
