Heading into the 2021-22 NBA season, the Association made some minor rule changes. You may notice James Harden isn’t getting as many foul calls in his favor, and that’s on purpose. The NBA told referees to watch out for “overt, abrupt or abnormal non-basketball moves,” such as jumping into a defender while taking a shot, or trying more to draw a foul call than to score a bucket.
Have these changes impacted league-wide scoring? Should we be hammering UNDERs now that Harden isn’t getting 20 free throws a night? Let’s find out:
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NBA OVER/UNDER Betting Trends and Records
NBA OVER/UNDER betting data as of December 7, 2021
The current NBA UNDER record is 193-165-4 (53.9%). Betting on the UNDER for every NBA game this year would have had a profit of +$1,049.96 (+10.5 units) for regular $100 bettors.
This means the NBA rule changes, alongside some luck and maybe improved defense, have helped bring down the league’s overall scoring so far in 2021-22. If these trends continue, betting on the UNDERs will be extremely profitable for season-long basketball bettors.
Check out our NBA betting hub to help you understand the basics of basketball OVER/UNDER betting, or head over to our NBA Computer Picks page to see what NBA totals the Odds Shark computer likes this week.
To find the NBA sportsbook that’s right for you, head over to our Sportsbook Review page.
How NBA OVER/UNDER Betting Works
Betting on basketball totals can be daunting due to the constant injury updates, roster changes and scoring hot streaks to keep up with. One way to get started is to have a ride-or-die strategy, backed up by statistics, like betting on the UNDERs.
Like our statistical breakdown shows above, it’s easy and profitable to hammer the UNDERs, and all you really need are the basics of sports betting. At your NBA sportsbook of choice, you’ll find odds that can be listed as American odds (-500), fractional odds (1/5) or decimal odds (1.20). We use American style at Odds Shark, and an example of an OVER/UNDER bet on an NBA game will show up something like this:
Lakers/Celtics OVER 219.5 points -110
Lakers/Celtics UNDER 219.5 points -110
In this case, the OVER/UNDER is basically a 50-50 bet, paying out $100 in profit for every $110 you bet. You can choose if you think there will be 220 or more total points in the game or 219 or less, and lock in your wager with the click of a button.