The 2018-19 NBA season tips off tonight between divisional rivals the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics. The last time these two teams met, they were battling in the Eastern Conference playoffs with the Celtics emerging victorious in five games. The Celtics roster will be fully restored with Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward back in the fold and Boston was lights-out last year at TD Garden at 37-15 SU and 32-18-2 ATS during the regular season and playoffs.
The Celtics opened as 5-point favorites with a total of 208.5.
- The Celtics were ranked 3rd in points allowed per game last season (100.4).
- The Sixers were ranked 1st in rebounds per game last season (47.4).
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of the 76ers’ last 7 games on the road (avg. combined score: 222.29).
TD Garden Is A Spread Bettor’s Best Friend
It may seem difficult to envision how this deep Celtics team can share the ball with all of this talent on the roster but head coach Brad Stevens shouldn’t be underestimated. Stevens has been the driving force for the Celtics’ resurgence (along with shrewd roster moves by Danny Ainge) that has placed Boston at second on the oddsboard to win the NBA title this year.
Boston’s defense was the linchpin of its success last season as the team ranked second in opponent field-goal percentage and first in opponent three-point shot percentage while allowing opposing teams to only manage 96.8 shots per game (ranked eighth). This all translated to the Celtics being the third-best defensive team in the NBA by limiting teams to only 100.4 points per game.
Projecting the Celtics’ defense may be a little harder to do as they now reintroduce Gordon Hayward to the lineup. Hayward will likely still have a lot of rust on his game so I doubt the C’s will count on him to shoulder much responsibility in the Sportsbook weeks. Boston may not seem like a deep-shooting team like the Warriors and Rockets but still ranked second in the NBA last year in three-point percentage on 30.4 attempts per game.
The offensive and defensive numbers explain the story for why the Celtics had the best spread record in the NBA at 62-37-1 ATS overall and 32-18-2 ATS at home (both records include playoffs). When you factor in the raucous home crowd and the fact that Boston is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games in this matchup, I like the Celtics to win and cover.
Sixers’ One-Two Punch Could Cause Celtics Fits
Six-foot-nine. That’s the tallest player on the Celtics’ starting five, which could be a problem since they have to battle with arguably the best low-post center in the NBA in Joel Embiid. Embiid was a beast last season by averaging 22.9 points per game to go with 11 rebounds but in eight games vs the Celtics (including playoffs), they limited him to 20.8 points per game. That may not seem like much of a drop-off but the Sixers’ lack of scoring options means he needs to drop at least 30 points if they want a shot at beating Boston.
Embiid’s presence alone should create a black hole for the Celtics’ defense that will open things up for Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz on the perimeter. The seven-footer contributed to the Sixers becoming the best rebounding team (47.4) in the NBA last season and Philly outrebounded teams by an average of 5.2 boards per game. That may not seem like a huge difference but when you consider the next-best team (Denver) only had a differential of 2.9, that tells bettors that opponents need to shoot a high percentage against the 76ers in order to beat them.
As for Simmons, his role as a playmaker and finisher at the rim makes him a unique player in the NBA but a lot of his traits are similar to LeBron James, which may actually do him a disservice vs a Celtics roster that battled the King for seven games in last year’s Eastern Conference final and almost toppled him. I think he has a great game tonight but his lack of shooting will hamper him in the closing moments.
I think the Sixers will fall short tonight in Boston but it’s worth noting that underdogs on the Sportsbook night of the NBA season are 8-6 ATS in the last 14 games in their season debuts and 17-15 ATS in the last 32 games.
Should you take the OVER?
The total opened at 208.5 and trends are pointing to an OVER. The OVER has hit in six of Philly’s last seven games on the road (all playoff games) with an average combined score of 222.9 points per game. OVER bettors were also cashing when the Sixers play in Boston as the OVER has hit in nine of the last 12 games in this matchup in Beantown with an average combined score of 212 points per game.
My Pick is…
To take the Celtics to cover the spread. The Celtics are just too good and can match up better with Joel Embiid than bettors think, which will put a halt to the Sixers’ offensive scheme. Celtics win by double digits.
