NBA Rookie Of The Year Odds: Banchero A Staggering Favorite

We’re only around the halfway point of the basketball season, but the public seems to have already made up its mind on the 2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year.

The latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds are out, where Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero is a whopping -700 favorite. At this point, it’s Banchero’s race to lose, as the 20-year-old is followed on the oddsboard by Bennedict Mathurin (+450) and Jaden Ivey (+2000).

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NBA Rookie Of The Year Odds For 2023

Odds as of January 3

Using our odds calculator, Banchero’s -700 odds translate to an implied win probability of 87.50 percent. That means if you placed a $10 bet on him to win NBA ROTY, your payout would be just $11.43 (a return of your original $10 plus a $1.43 profit).

Mathurin’s +450 odds give him an 18.18 percent chance of winning the award, and a $10 bet on the Indiana Pacers guard would pay out a lucrative $55.

Why is paolo Banchero (-700) A Massive Favorite in the NBA ROTY Odds?

So, how did we get down to a three-man race so quickly? Well, Banchero’s success mixed with a season-ending injury to Chet Holmgren, the preseason co-favorite for Rookie of the Year, narrowed the candidates.

Banchero, the first overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, is playing more minutes than any other NBA rookie (34.1 MPG) and leading all newbies in scoring with 20.9 points per game. The kid’s shooting, particularly his .308 three-point percentage, isn’t especially refined, although he’s flashing serious all-around skill with 6.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game.

It would be very hard for Banchero not to win Rookie of the Year. But there’s obviously no value in backing him at -700, so let’s check out the other candidates and see if we can map out a path to plus-money success.

2023 NBA ROTY Candidates: The Other Guys

Here are the other two players listed on the NBA ROTY oddsboard.

Jaden Ivey (+2000)

After the conclusion of the NBA Summer League, Ivey looked like a dark horse to win Rookie of the Year. Now, as we near the halfway point, his chances have faded.

While Ivey has had a respectable rookie year, he’s been missing the touch that often takes point guards to the next level. He’s shooting just .409 from the field (.315 from deep) and hasn’t been all that solid at the free-throw line either, shooting just .728. 

Ivey is never going to have the finesse of a Steph Curry, which limits his scoring capabilities. The 20-year-old is very fast and athletic, with his defense adding lots of value to the court. Unfortunately, that skill set just isn’t tailored for an NBA Rookie of the Year award, especially when Banchero is doing much better. 

Bennedict Mathurin (+450)

Mathurin has the best chance at dethroning Banchero atop the oddsboard. The Montreal native has shot better from the floor this season (.422) than the other two candidates and trails only Banchero in rookie scoring (17.3 PPG). 

The 20-year-old has been the perfect wing player for Indiana this year, coming off the bench and using his soft shooting touch to score from the perimeter. He’s also been solid handling the basketball, committing just 1.8 turnovers per game, better than both Banchero and Ivey. In terms of win shares, a statistic that estimates the number of wins contributed by a player, Mathurin is equal to Banchero at 1.2 WS. 

After a deep dive into the numbers, Mathurin really isn’t that far off from matching Banchero’s on-court success. Banchero is definitely a bigger name, but Mathurin is deserving of shorter odds. At +450, I don’t hate a long-shot bet (maybe one unit?) on Mathurin to win NBA Rookie of the Year. With plenty of season left, he’s trending in the right direction.

Understanding NBA Rookie Of The Year Odds

At any basketball sportsbook, you’ll see prop odds displayed like this:

You’ll see that Banchero and Holmgren are the front-runners because they have the lowest numbers beside their names. In this scenario, those two players are the co-favorites.

If you think Banchero will win NBA ROTY, and you successfully bet $10 on him, your payout would be $47.50. If you see better value with Ivey at +1000, for example, then that same $10 bet will pay out $110 if it hits. To make the odds and values less confusing, check out our odds calculator.

What Is A Prop Bet On NBA Rookies?

Any bet that is made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of a certain player or team milestones that don’t necessarily correlate to the result of a particular game is a prop. In this case, you’re betting on a player’s chances of winning Rookie of the Year.

The oddsmakers will move the lines as the season progresses. As more games are played and different players show their skills on the court, the odds will shift. If you see odds you like, it’s best to take them early so, if you win your bet, you can get the most value.